Friday, June 16, 2006

Baghdad: Take Down and the Jihadi Split

Raids, raids and more raids. This looks like Afghanistan after the initial invasion. AQ is largely defeated with the leaders and fighters scattering to safe areas. Some plot to return and keep fighting, others decided that it wasn't worth it. Some decide they will go to another location. We're going to see the same in Iraq. The jihadists will either go home or go to another front. But they are done in Iraq.

I am currently reading, The Far Enemy, How Jihad Went Global. It's a good book and helps explain some of the splits in the jihadists movement between nationalists and those who wanted international war. It talks about the reasons, such as a waning Islamist movement that could barely attract followers or mujihadeen by the late 90's and bin Laden's decision to go global in order to boost the awareness of his group and their causes as well as build donations and recruits. The author indicates that there is a split between the nationalists and internationalists. He indicates that these groups are largely separate entities that simply function together at convenient times. He also notes that, even though there is this Islamist "caliphate" ideology, they all don't agree on how to get it done and that most of the cells really come together based on the cult of personality.

It reminds me of reading T E Lawrence and his discussion of tribal politics; that tribal and family allegiances would often keep groups from working together; that warriors did not lead by official appointment or ideas or heredity, but charisma and that the only way they were able to get an Arab force big enough to fight off the turks was to get the individual leaders to buy into it. Of course, reading history anyone should know that once these warlords made it into Damascus and drove out the Turks, in fighting immediately began with a supreme struggle for power and leadership.

I look forward to the same inside AQ since they continue to operate on these old personality paradigms for war.

Wonder when they will figure out how wrong it is? Hopefully, never while we take them apart.

In the meantime, the Baghdad Take Down continues.

Suggested reading on this subject:

Security Watch Tower: Operation Forward Together

Security Watch Tower: 452 take downs

SWT: Zarqawi/Hussein Link?
SWT: Taliban/Hussein Link?

SWT: Baqouba (city/area where Zarqawi was killed) Al Qaeda Emir Taken Down in 5 hour Shoot Out
SWT: Table of Zarqawi/Al Qaeda Leaders Taken or Killed by Coalition/Iraq Forces (or, why the Jihad Business is showing a slump in recruiting and operations)

SWT: Going to Ramadi?

This Weeks Winds of War

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