Egypt, Syria, Israel and Palestine: Revolutionaries Selling Their Freedom Cheap and Their Top Bidder is Syria, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas

It is becoming very clear that the revolutionary youth in Egypt are determined to throw away everything they earned to act as proxies for the Muslim Brotherhood and their subsidiaries, Hamas, in the Gaza Strip.  The second runners up for the bid for cheap revolution are Hezbollah and Syria.

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Middle East Revolutions: The Coming War For "Arab" Independence and Israel

There is among western nations a strange idea that the settlement of the Israel-Palestine issue into two, viable states will extinguish at least one of the complaints of the "Islamists" and general "Arab on the street".  An idea that this is the cause of "extremism", or one part of it, and a necessity to reduce the tensions between east and west.

This is probably the most naive concept to ever have taken root in the great foreign policy think tanks that have influenced state policy.  The formation of Israel is a matter of history defined by each side of the question.  Some basic information researched by this blog can be found here (Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII.)

The reality of this conflict comes down to two points: the war that never ended and the spirit of anti-colonialism that has never left the Arab constituency.  This is the war that has simply been put off for generations.  Largely because, no matter how often someone attempts implement Lawrence's idea of Arab Unity and an Arab Greater Nation, the desires and demands of the tribes, Shayks and political trends continuously drag them apart.  Because, while their may be a general designation of "Arab" among the population, it can never overcome the great divides within the entire community.

As with the Egyptian revolution, where the case for unity revolved around ousting Mubarek and was almost instantly gone, unity is only over singular ideas and moments.  The Revolution in Egypt is quickly being overcome by the Muslim Brotherhood, the reality of sectarian divides and the weakness of all other parties.  The only idea that is bringing any sense of unity back to the greater polity is now "Palestine".

While secular Egyptian movements had intended to mobilize millions of Egyptians on Friday in order to support national unity and condemn attacks on Christians in Egypt, Islamist forces succeeded in turning the protest in support of what is referred to as the "Third Palestinian Intifada".

It seems true freedom will be sacrificed once again to the driving political ideologies of others.   This is, as with the failure of the Arab contingency to take what was about to be handed to them on three other occasions in the early twentieth century and turn it into a battle they are destined to lose.  Again. 

The current interim government of Egypt is blocking the movement to the Sinai.  They at least recognize that Egypt and the surrounding nations are hardly in a position to confront Israel directly.  While the marchers were chanting "millions of martyrs to Jerusalem", the reality of a "peasants' crusade" would, indeed, result in millions of martyrs that would result in Arab states attempting to go to war on behalf of the martyrs and, once again, failing.  That is, if they can convince Jordan to allow them to cross the territory or can figure out how to cross the narrow Sinai peninsula in great enough numbers not to be completely slaughtered and pile up in the hole as most attempted breaches in history have shown.

As with the last war with Israel, Jordan was coerced by it's association with the Arab League.  The Arab League is quickly becoming a farce, being replaced by things like the Gulf Cooperative Council and Egypt and Iran jockeying for political position in the region.

As Syria is torn in half by unknown forces that are similar to Egypt.  The Brotherhood, liberals, leftists, etc all looking to make it their own fight. 

What is more than likely is that the end state of the status of Israel and anything that could be called Palestine will come at the tip of a gun and missiles.  Not necessarily because the MB wants a greater war.  They would prefer to do it the slow way, the same way in which they have been Islamacizing Egypt, taking over by population density.  That is the purpose of pushing for the "Two state" plan to have Palestine recognized as a state with the 1967 agreed upon borders.  At that point they can allow in a greater part of the "refugees" for a population boom that would attempt to mirror Israel.

The obvious points of insisting on the right of return for "Palestinian Arabs" is to take over Israel by dent of population and, if it is not allowed to take that position, a continuous cause for war.  This last purpose is the most likely.  So long as there is some "enemy" that it can point to as the "cause", they can continue to consolidate their hold over the general populations of the Middle East, bringing their ideology into the main by slow degrees.   It is very ironic to read from the "liberals" (left, center left largely) that the US is looking for the next enemy to confront as it is "perpetually at war".  No one has examined that the perpetual theme of war is the status of any entity in power or coming to power because someone always wants that power.  People who think that there is a future of "sharing" or "social justice" washes greed (capitalism) away and creates peace.  It isn't "greed", it is power and the thirst for it will never end.  It is a matter of how that power is used and to whose benefit.

The liberals are being broken slowly by their inability to be anything separate except whether to implement a minimum or maximum wage or a taxation program.  They want a different education program but the MB has already taken that ministry through negotiations with SCAF.  They will get different, but it will be about on par with that offered by the previous administration except with the inclusion of more Islamist bent educators and any religious or "humanity" education will be from their perspective.  Of course, leftist ideology will remain the main theme when it comes to "social justice" because this is the most acceptable aspect for the Islamists.

The enemy of liberalism and democracy in Egypt is not the United States.  It is entirely Egyptian made and they are willingly throwing freedom under the bus.  Continuously there are posts that insist that the Islamists are part of Egypt and must be given their place at the table.  There is no perception of history that shows that the intellectuals and free thinkers consistently giving ideologies "space at the table" and then finding themselves the first to be oppressed, imprisoned and killed. 

The warnings fall on deaf ears and those ears will be followed by muted voices. 

The Brotherhood has shown again and again that they have the power of the street.  The NAC (National Association for Change), April 6 and various others called for a "unity march" in Tahrir while the Islamists issue a call through the mosques for a march to Palestine to remember "Nakba", the catastrophe, when Israel declared State Hood, May 14, 1948. 

The Islamists have shown their power.  The Liberals and the Leftists will get what is left over if there is much of anything as the Islamists slowly push the entirety of Egypt towards confrontation with Israel.

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Muslim Brotherhood v. Al Qaeda and an Interview With MB Leader

An extremely interesting report contrasting the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda including outlining on the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda's break, Hamas in the Gaza v. Islamist offshoots of Al Qaeda.

Pointing this out is not in the interest of showing either of these groups as "secular" or not dangerous to the United States, Israel and the region. It is rather to put some light on divisions that should be and could be exploited. Particularly in the light of the new reality in Egypt. If our primary goal is the elimination of Al Qaeda and the diminishing of extremist ideology.

See my previous post on "The One Good Thing About the Muslim Brotherhood"

An important aspect to remember is that, in Egypt, when the Brotherhood gets a piece of the pie, they will have several counters (though, it seems the Brotherhood is lying low per some insiders). One, the Egyptian army who has lots of interests they won't easily surrender to Islamic rule. Two, they will have share power with numerous "leftist" parties who are largely socialist and have a big chunk of support through labor unions. Three, when they own a piece of the pie (as they have been working towards) they will have something to lose.

Another interesting video interview with the head of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. He side steps lots of questions about establishing an Islamic state in Egypt. Says they are for a civil society and democracy. That is what the people of Egypt want. But, if a majority of people want Sharia as a basis of law by a majority, then it must abide by it. They say that they will not forsake their faith. Said they did not use their banners to lead the revolution because they were not the only ones, but they were part of it (and they were, stand by).

Do not seek a post or job in the government. Backing El Baradei. Will work with anyone of anyone religion or any political party who has the main value "freedom". Says no one with any "responsibility" has said that the treaty with Israel should be abrogated. Then goes on to harangue Israel and their aggressions. The solution should be "justice". UN should implement UN resolution.

Anchor points out that the MB candidates only had ten percent votes. He said that the elections were rigged. He expects that if they get a chance to run in free elections they would get 30% to 38% of votes (actually, this is pretty close to my estimation coming soon on political make up). However, he supports free practice of religion. On the other hand, his prediction of getting over 30% of the vote kind of contradicts the whole "we don't seek post or job in new government".

The revolution was all people. Women with veils, women without veils, etc. Revolution of the people (sort of suggesting that they understand they do not represent a majority; goes along with comments by anchor about losing membership and splintering of party that he denies).

Other thoughts coming on the possible political make up of the New Egypt.

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