I'm now on part two of the book, Origins of Terrorism written by many excellent authorities on Politics, Terrorism, Psychology, and History, edited by Walter Reich. This book was written in 1990 and republished in 1998. So far, I can give it an excellent review and it is still quite applicable.
In Part I, Martha Crenshaw wrote about the decision to enjoin terrorism by an organization as being logical and strategic in its planning and operations. Using her concepts, I explored how her ideas applied to current terrorsist operations.
Part II of the book explores different terrorist groups in western countries, like the Bader-Meinhoff group in West Germany, The Red Army of Italy, The Weathermen of the United States, etc, their motivations, their transformation and profile characteristics of the members. It also explores sympathetic communities and why these groups eventually became obsolete.
Based on the analysis of this book, groups do not start out forming from nothing with the express intent on committing terrorist acts. Rather, these groups were second or third manifestations of previous organizations or movements that may have previously attempted to use non-violent, political means to achieve their goals and members of the organization felt that either the methods or the message or both were the cause and needed to be changed, taken to the next step.
One group that they focused on was the development of the Weathermen organization. This group sprang out of the SDS (Students for a Democratic Society) that had previously come from the civil rights movements of the 50's and early 60's. The SDS had expressly forbidden violent activity in their charter as antithetical to their ideology. Particularly, they were anti-war and protested against the Vietnam War. Part of their over all plan was to develop "democratic institutions" outside of the "establishment" on the basis of the directive in the Declaration of Independence that citizens had the right to abolish and re-establish government when it was unresponsive to the citizens. The book indicates that the original charter of the SDS also prohibited membership of Communists since Communist regimes had proven to be expressly anti-democratic and this was anti-thetical to their cause.
However, as time went on and their stance against the Vietnam War had not gained the popularity and strength it had desired and decided to create a quasi pact with the Communist parties, allowing Communist members to join the SDS in order to boost membership and seal this pact with similar "anti-war" organizations. The SDS eventually was infiltrated and turned into a Communist front group. By 1967, anti-war groups were becoming increasingly in violent contact with police as some elements participated in petty vandalization of property and the police became more impatient and more concerned with the size of the protests. By 1969, this group had split into three factions with different strategies and ideologies.
One such group was the Weathermen who had decided that peaceful methods would not achieve the social and political change they wanted as quickly as they desired. They had also increasingly identified themselves with the pro-violence, black power groups.
The members of this group were white, middle or upper class, college educated or graduated.
The group was forced underground after committing several terrorist acts, inlcuding bombing the Pentagon. Once they were forced underground, the group felt they had committed to a course of action where there was no return and determined to continue to carry out these acts. The group self selected, were extremely paranoid about being captured or infiltrated and, when recruiting members, would insist that the new recruit participate fully in the terrorist activities to insure they were fully committed.
Eventually, the Weathermen broke apart as their techniques did not galvanize the public as they wished, they became more and more concerned with security, and members of the group began to believe that their aims were unachievable.
Looking at our current terrorists, their manifestations and writings, we can clearly see that the Islamist movement did not grow out of a religious ideology on its own, but can be looked at as the second generation of the Pan Arabist movement. This was largely under the banner of socialism in the guise of the Nasserites and Ba'athists and generated such organizations as the Arab League. This movement still exists, but is largely ineffective for multiple reasons, not the least of which is the ethnic, tribal, religious and political diversity of the states involved. Other problems ensued as these socialist governments tried to suppress religion, westernize their economic, social and political structures and homogenize their populations.
The other issues included power sharing, which most of these governments were unwilling to do and affiliation, as most of the socialist governments were clients of the Soviets and others were aligned with Western governments. The issue of Israel and the different approaches to dealing with them was also a separater.
In short, the movement failed. At the same time, Muslim fundamentalism was growing, largely dissatisfied with the anti-religious stance of the socialist governments and the repression of their fellows, as well as continued economic struggles of these countries which the re-enforced the failure of the governments to support their populations. The Islamists, of course, interpreted this as a failure to adhere to their Islamic roots and the failed and decadent western ideas that had infiltrated their culture. This movement was able to assassinate Saddat in 1979 and directly after that, reprisals and repressions took place in Egypt, Syria and Iraq in particular.
Once the Afghan-Russian war began, the Islamists had a place to channel their first battle against western, non-Islamist government.
Zawahiri, in Knights Under the Prophet's Banner, clearly despises the socialist Pan Arabist movements and the secular socialist Palestinian Liberation movements as weak and leading the Muslim brothers away from their true power. He even castigates the Muslim Brotherhood for what he feels is their failure to continue the struggle and their attempts to enter into the political process.
Of course, there are also the issues of co-concurrent movements that cooperate on operations, support, etc. This evening I was watching a movie from 1976 regarding the Entebbe hostage rescue and was reminded that the above mentioned Bader-Meinhoff group, ostensibly an anti-capitalist movement, had participated in the hostage taking with the PFLP. We see the same cooperation with Ba'athist/Islamists in Iraq, the support of the Al Qaida networks by Iranian and Syrian government organizations, the concommittment of Hammas, Fatah, Hizbollah and the PLO. While these are often vague and limited attachments, they still exist.
We may even be seeing the third generation of radicalized groups who even eschew the original constraints of the original Bin Ladenist terrorist actions which had originally attempted to limit actions to "Zionists, Christians and Atheists" with concern for innocent Muslim civillians and now has taken to labeling even Muslims as targets when they don't conform exactly to the terrorists' idea of Islam.
While the book talks about the potential of governments to create more radicals by severe repressive actions, it also talks about why terrorist movements losing the support base they need and eventually fading away because the terrorist organizations attacks alienate and disgust their main support base. We're starting to see that now:
Terror Shifts Muslim Views
US Muslims Issue Fatwa Against Terrorism
Memri: Arab/Muslim Reformists on Terror
Al Jazeera Open Forum: Muslims Discuss Terrorism
Amnesty International Issues Demands on Terrorists and Al Rashad from Arab News denounces the "theologians of terror"
Asharq Alaswat Editorial (largest printed Arabic newspaper in the world): The source of terrorism
Saudi Citizens inform on Top Terrorist
Muslim Mind is On Fire
Most interesting of all...
IRA Orders Members to Lay Down Arms
Now, you may wonder what this has to do with Islamic terrorism. First, it's a recognition by the IRA that terrorism in general is losing it's support because of the nature of the new terrorists. Secondly, if you read winds of change, the IRA has been accused of assisting in training the Islamists and other terrorist organizations around the world. In the past, the IRA would announce its bombing and allow civillians to be evacuated from the area. The new breed is not so well mannered.
There is still a long way to go, but it is likely that Islamists may reach the peak of their support within the decade as information about attacks and attacks themselves within their original support group continue to alienate a once sympathetic community.
Friday, July 29, 2005
The Origins of Terrorism: Part II Second Generation Radicals
Thursday, July 28, 2005
Final Review: Over There
Bochco directed and produced Hill Street Blues which I always thought was too much like a bad cop soap opera. I always preferred the NYPD Blue drama because people like Sipowitz reminded me a lot of my own father.
Well, Bochco should have thought about this a little more because, frankly, Over There is over reached, over rated, over stated and, unless some serious changes are made: over.
The characters were flat and stereotypes. The first soldier we see is a black man smoking a joint. On duty. Uh-huh. Don't get me wrong, I don't have the illusion that all over our menn and women in uniform are perfect, but I am quite certain that that image is hardly typical so I suppose that first image was far too typical of post Vietnam concepts of soldiers. Then there was the last part of the episode where the soldiers are on the way to get some home made hooch and end up rolling up over an IED and wounding one. Again, so stuck in the post Vietnam genre of Platoon, Full Metal Jacket and a few other stereo type shows that attempts to portray soldiers as druggies, drunks and just guys searching for a good time while occasionally blowing off some ammo. Oh, and let's not forget the anal, glory seeking officer that is willing to sacrifice his men for a few points and the sargent who suggests that other soldiers would be really happy if he was 'fragged'.
Oiye! Somebody should tell Bochco and the writers that this isn't 1971 and the desert isn't any where near Khe Sahn.
The rest of the characters fit the same pattern. Basically, Bochco tried to present every characters' main characteristics and motivation in an hour. No...less than an hour since I counted six commercial breaks that certainly made the program really more likea 37 minutes. Thus, the characters were extremely flat and unconvincing.
The best part of the program was the approximate 8 minutes of battle.
The other character I was disappointed in one was the helpless, stupid female soldier who was so bent on proving her feminist geist that she yelled at another soldier to get away from her so she could do something herself, giving away her position and endangering her unit. Further, wondering away during battle to go to the bathroom in the middle of a mission, far away from the other soldiers after the sargent had just told another male soldier that looking for privacy could get him killed.
Frankly, I know some female soldiers and none of them would I classify as hyper sensitive idiots.
I understand that there was a Marine sargent who consulted on this program? I'm not sure what areas he consulted on, but I'd like to meet him and find out if he agreed to any of the type casting. The best parts of the program were the uniforms, weapons and the fighting scenes.
Oh, and let us not forget the "insurgent" that wasn't a jihadi but was angry at the US invasion and "forced freedom" and, even though he wasn't a jihadi, he was occupying a mosque and shooting from it. Probably the only other realistic part of the program in which the soldiers were being fired on from that position, but restrained due to PR and the fact that an al Jazeera reporter was inside with the terrorists. Nearly forgot the "security perimeter" the soldiers pulled after the IED. It was just a brief glimpse on the screen, but looked decent.
And, from the previews, it doesn't look like the next episode gets any better. I see soldiers abusing prisoners, possibly participating in an execution while all the new guys stand around and watch implicating themselves in a war crime. That is, after their commander asks for men to be "decoys" and draw out the enemy. Oh, and the stupid female soldier continues to be stupid, incompentent and scared so much that she can't react to being shot at.
I will continue to watch this program, but only because I intend to rip it apart every time that it shows ignorant, inaccurate and stereotypically insulting actions and characters.
Bochco, if you ever read this, please do us a favor and fire the writers or yourself so this program has the possibility of succeeding. I would recommend not trying to develop characters and fight the whole war in 37 minutes.
This gets a one star rating. With a half a star for unknown actors and actresses trying to make a crappy story line work.
Wednesday, July 27, 2005
Over There IV
Soldiers looking at dead bodies. One says nice shooting and another says the enemy is "smaller than he thought?"
Now looking at half a body that was taken out by an explosive round.
Other female soldier is praying and stupid one with bandaid.
Reporters around and Jihadi guy screaming about "freedom forced on him". Reporter is pissed that they won't let him continue interviewing the guy "it's part of the agreement" and the LT says he violated his agreement and attacked costing the lives of a dozen of his men.
Soldiers sending messages home via video cam. The military censor is being insane (another stereo type or the truth?). Guy was just saying "shitville".
Now, thinking soldier is saying that everyone is savage and monster that kill each other. But he sees the nobility of war. Now he is saying what many milibloggers say which is that they learn to appreciate their wives and family more.
Oops. Next stereo type. Thinking soldier's wife is banging some guy while he sends a message.
Singing soldier making up a song and now singing.
The day is coming
The drums are drumming
If you know one say a prayer
There're Mothers crying
Fathers sighing
War is in the air
Trains are filling up with boys
Who left behind their favorite toys
Their going over there
Some one has to die
(end song)
Sgt threatening soldier over risking lives of men (another stereo type?)
They have a marine sgt consultant?
Now the marijuana soldier is trying to convince them to go make a "moonshine" run.
Now soldier talks about killing a kid who was on guard duty at an arms cache.
Now they just rolled over an IED. That I could see was coming. The guy said to pull over. Now why the hell did they do that? No good reason.
Another soldier is going crazy.
One soldier has his leg half blown off and that was pretty damned graffic.
Interesting the music they are choosing to play.
Medevac as other soldiers pull security perimeter.
That's it.
Lots of stereo types. Acted as if the soldiers were pretty cold about who they were killing but not about their buddy getting blown up.
I don't see any overt heroics.
Anybody else have thoughts on this?
update III Over there
Now the fog of war where the female stupid soldier has wondered off, her gun was accidently explodede by a mortar and they are imagining that she is dead and don't go searching for her.
Jihadis screaming Allahu Akbar and coming out in major attack.
They fight of flanking manouver my jihadis, find stupid chic and now they are attacking through.
Sgt keeps saying not to call him "sir".
Wow. Too many damn commercials.
Over There Live Blogging
Holy Sh*t! Stereo type number six. Black soldier that thinks they are being used and abused by white soldiers.
Female soldier now crying and praying.
Two soldiers now discussing why they joined the military.
Soldier discussing how he signed up for education money.
Other one says that he was "stupid".
Now discussing where to take a shit.
On to jihadists coming out under a white flag if negotiations turn out their way. I am suspicious where this is going (since most of us know).
Black soldier now saying he joined up because he was turned down for a choir and joined in anger.
Female soldier major stupid just went off by herself to take a shit. Jeesh, they are really playing this up. She laid down her weaapon and is in the middle of nowhere. Jihadi motherfucker comes up on her and tries to kill her.
Okay...maybe because I'm a woman, I'm objecting to this. How come they couldn't make one of the guys stupid?
Live Blogging "Over There"
First thing I see is a soldier smoking pot. Not that I think that soldiers are perfect but that is definitely some left over 60's post Vietnam imagery.
Second thing, woman soldier saying good-bye to her kid.
Third thing, which seemed pretty accurate, was guys taking fire from a mosque and they are yelling about al jazeera reporters inside and they are not able to return fire. There is a really pissed of sgt that is angry he's been stopped loss, angry that he has a bunch of FNGs and just freaking angry.
Fourth, Captain comes up to their position in the evening and is almost shot by one of the soldiers. After he leaves, the squad leader says the guy is "Mad Cow" and that the soldier would have been given money by other members of the unit if he'd done it.
Fifth, female soldiers with the group, obviously playing on the "women soldiers are stupid" angle since, as they move up, the one woman soldier can't seem to dig a little fox hole, two male soldiers come to help her and she proceeds to yell at them to get away that she can do it herself and her yelling is so loud it attracts the enemy inside the mosque that proceeds to shoot at them.
Well, how many stereo types can you dish out in the first five minutes of a program?
Thank you Mudville for the link.
Reviews of subsequent Over There episodes and additions to this review can be found at:
Episode I: Live Blog part 2
Episode I: Part 3
Episode I: Final Review
Episode II: Check Point Choke
Episode III: The One Eared Pirate
Origins of Terrorism
If you're wondering why I'm not writing anything profoundly entertaining or deeply philosophical, I am in the middle of reading a book called Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind. It's an interesting book so far, but it definitely reads like an academic primer. It's an amalgamation of several noted authorities in the field of politics, psychology, terrorism and history. This book was first published in 1990 and republished in 1998. It appears to still be valid.
The first chapter is written by Martha Crenshaw, professor of government, Wesleyan University and author of Encyclopedia of World Terrorism; International Encyclopedia of World Terrorism and Terrorism in Context. I have not read any of these books or know anything about the individual authors involved in writing "Origins of Terrorism" so I have no preconceived ideas about where the book is intended to go. So far, the first chapter is a basic primer and starts out by refuting terrorism as an outcropping of social or economic class, but is specifically a logical decision taken by groups as a strategy that is more specifically related to an organizations size, resources and, interestingly, time.
Size and resources as a factor towards "rational" decisions to engage in terrorism is directly related to the size and ability of an organizations opponent, the size and following of the organization (ie, numbers and potential following restricted due extreme positions that are, for the most part, rejected by the majority) and, finally, the organizations perceived ability to make changes socially or politically through non-violent means. The last may be affected by living within or opposing totalitarian or authoritarian regimes that, by nature, are extremely oppressive and brook no opposition, regardless of how moderate, and when regimes enact even more draconian measures in response to terrorism, embed the feelings of hopelessness to effect change.
The issue of time has two points:
1) The terrorist organization feels that time is limited to effect the changes that they wish to occur.
2) The time is appropriate due to political and/or economical instability.
I argued last June and again in October 2004 that the timing of Al Qaida's attack on the US on September 11 was not solely due to their operational constraints.
And what about the timing?
As noted, Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants were not scruffy goat herders without education or understanding of finance. They understood it perfectly well and had been using it to invest money and collect dividends by which to support their own endeavors and launder money. They understood perfectly well the condition of the US economy. The plan had been in place for nearly five years and, yet, had not been unleashed. We could speculate about operational issues and training, etc, but, if we look at the last years of the Clinton administration and the financial indicators, we can see that the US economy was in a "boom". Certainly, an attack would have set us back, but would not have had the impact on a growing economy that it would have on an economy in recession.
With the recovery of August 2001 looming, it was now or never for Al-Qaida to strike and they did. According to some reports, Sheik Khalid had actually tried to get it off the ground in April when the recession had first been called, but that had been postponed due to operational issues. (blue bars on graph are times of recession; provided by US Census Study: Income, Poverty and Health Insurance
Of course, this is not the sole factor, but I believe that, if we dismiss the attacks as random or expressly related to operational ability of cells or expressly related to other individual acts, such as the Iraq war, or solely motivated by a political situation, we would be missing the point and thus missing important indicators that should alert us to higher risk of attacks.
I also believe that it is unwise for so called experts to promote the idea that terrorist acts committed by separate cells who call themselves different names are not directly related to a central plan or operation center. For instance, the terrorist cells in England are being touted as if they were stand alone operations that selected the target and dates of the attack based on the cells sole decision. Nor is it likely that their "reason" for the attack was the sole motivator.
There are too many factors that indicate the timing and targets were based on specific plans and recent history and arrests tell us how these cells interact with a central command, approving of operations and essentially "flipping the switch".
First, we have the arrest of Mohammed Noor Khan, the collator and central information dessiminator whose job included taking operational plans, surveillance materials and financial projections, send them up to bin Laden and Zawahiri for approval. He would then forward messages between the cells and bin Laden's "board of directors" to obtain further instructions or directions on accomplishing these operations.
Khan's arrest nor the arrest of other top operations officers does not mean that this type of centralization and direction has disappeared from the greater Al Qaida organization. Reports from Britain also indicate the arrival of a suspected Al Qaida officer two weeks prior to the action and leaving within hours prior to the actual event which points to a central operations director.
The attacks had a multi-faceted purpose and approach.
1) Tony Blair was re-elected but with a diminished majority (even if only slightly).
2) Public sentiment in Britain was continuing to decline on the legitimacy and viability of maintaining an Iraq presence.
3) Attacks in Iraq were losing public support and publicity mainly due to the public becoming ennured to the daily attacks far away from the countries involved and that these attacks were being perceived more and more as products of a local civil war and not part of the political statement of the Islamists against "imperial forces".
4) The G8 was meeting in the country and many political leaders would be a direct witness to the attacks.
5) Live 8 and G8 with commiserate attendees of large audiences and protestors meant that security operations would be split and more vulnerable as well as giving Al Qaida travellers cover to arrive in and out of the country.
6) Trains and buses are part of the economic structure of England as mass transportation is the substantial system through which workers, shoppers and tourists travel to the city, all of which directly affects the finances of London, if not England as a whole.
7) The major strategic impact of attacking otherwise "taboo" targets (ie, civilians in their everyday places) that stirs panic and possibly additional reprisals or depradations against Muslims, thus enforcing in more people's minds the Islamist claim that the war is between the western infidel and Islam.
Thus, covering the entire gamut of strategic endeavors from propaganda, political, financial and psychological.
What I've found interesting over the last several weeks is the continued attempts by "analysts" to place the "cause" of the attacks on only one or two of these strategic points and not the totality or convergence of these points as if al Qaida and its affiliates were too simple to analyze, evaluate and operate based on a larger operational plan.
Further, it cannot be emphasized enough that the members of the first cell did not "spin up" in the last six to twelve months. Mohammed Saddique Khan had lived in Leeds for over four years and Germaine Lindsay had arrived sometime in 2002, very near the time that Tanweer and Hussain began to experience "religion". Al Nashar, who seems to have dropped off the public radar, also moved there in 2000. All of which points to plans for attacks being put in place for several years and held to make the most of multiple strategic purposes.
The attacks in Madrid had similar purposes including affecting public opinion, affecting politics and affecting a financial main stay of Spain: transport.
Looking at these factors may point to where and when the next attacks might take place. For instance, what country has the next upcoming elections? Which country is likely to experience a political turn over that may directly affect how that country deals with terrorism (eg, Germany's conservative party that is more closely related to the US seems to be gathering more support; elections are coming up; are there any political or financially important programs coming up? This doesn't have to be in the next two or three months, but within the next two years. The other country that is at the most risk is Italy since it also is supporting US efforts in Iraq. The question should expand to the financial situation of any of these countries).
The Egypt operation has similar strategic goals. There is political unrest with Mubarek being challenged for top office. Egypt is supporting Iraq and has ties to Israel. The recent kidnapping of an Egyptian envoy (and possible murder) caused Egypt to withdraw its diplomatic mission. They attacked a secured, civilian location that was a tourist attraction, the main economic resource for Egypt.
I believe that the idea being floated today that these groups are simply ideologically sympathetic to Al Qaida and are not controlled by a central directive or strategy with specific intents and operations is a fallacy that is: a) being propagated by Al Qaida in order to throw off searching and destroying the central command structure as well as adding to the fear that there are many more of them than actually exists; b) dangerous to strategic and operational planning by opposition forces that may try to spread its resources to thin to cover all of these possibilities.
I will continue to review the book and give further reports on its points and application.
Tuesday, July 26, 2005
A Brit Reports on Terror War Outside His Back Window
Click on the title and get a first hand report of the war on terror out the back window of a British Citizen as the police grab up a car suspected of being used by the latest round of London Train Bombers. (hat tip: Harry
Art of the Liberated
Don't miss out. John at Castle Argghh! is hosting the Art of the Liberated. He's looking for submissions. Just get your photoshop in order and create images with messages of freedom or supporting the military or proud to be American or anything that supports "Freedom" and send it to (johnbethd@yahoo.com) John.
What are you waiting for? Go make some art!
From England to Egypt to Iraq Constitution
England and Egypt are now inexorbantly linked through terrorism. I'm not sure about the rest of the world, but anyone notice that Al Nashar has disappeared from all airways? You know the chemist that rented out his apartment to Germaine Lindsay, one of the 7/7 train bombers who went to Egypt two weeks prior to the operation, arrested by Egyptian authorities who subsequently cleared him of any attachment to Al Qaida or the bombings? Two weeks later, degraded explosives failed to blow up trains and buses again then a day later, Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt.
I wonder what is happening with Al Nashar? I'm not sure if he was involved in the Egyptian activity, but I am going to re-iterate concerns about al Nashar being in the US at the same time as Lindsay in 2000, that they both end up in Leeds and Nashar rents an apartment to him before he subsequently blows up a train with some other fellows from Leeds. Coincidence? Don't think so.
In the mean time, the Egyptian Blogger anti-terrorist protest made it's way into the Guardian. Sandmonkey is excited.
MSNBC covers it a little too, via Glenn Reynolds.
Back to England, Harry has Tony Blair's press conference up, more than what Fox is even showing this morning.
"Not one inch should we give to these people.
"And I want to say this to you - I may offend people when I say this, but I am going to say it nonetheless - September 11 for me was a wake-up call.
"Do you know what I think the problem is? A lot of the world woke up for a short time and then turned over and went back to sleep again.[snip]
The prime minister slammed the "obscenity" of people saying it was "concern for Iraq" that drives them to terrorism.
"If it is concern for Iraq, why are they driving a car bomb into the middle of a group of children and killing them?" he asked.
"What is happening in Iraq is that ordinary decent Iraqis are being butchered by these people with the same terrorist ideology that is killing people in different parts of the world."
Speaking of Iraq, the brothers at Iraq the Model have information up on the draft of the Constitution and women discussing secular vs. religious political participation of women and women in society.
On a quick review of the constitution, I'd say that it has too many contradictions still. It talks about non-discrimination based on sex, creed, ethnicity, etc but later gives the body of laws as deriving from Sharia which is inherently discriminating in its treatment of women and people of other religioins.
It also says that people have a right to free practice of their religion as long as it does not run contrary to law, law which is based on Sharia.
It's as if a secular person wrote one paragraph and a religious party member wrote the next.
Then there is the inclusion as a constitutional right that a person can choose to have their trials in front of a civil court, a tribal court or a sharia religious court. That is far to open and gives people the opportunity to go to three different courts to get three different opinions. Which one takes precedence?
These are just a few of the contradictions.
Sunday, July 24, 2005
Egyptian Bloggers Protest Against Terrorism
The blog world strikes again. Egyptian bloggers, both in Egypt and outside, were talking about the bombings in Sharm al Sheikh. Suddenly, almost simultaneously, blogs around the blogworld started talking about protesting against terrorism. Then there were comments and cross posting, IM messages and cell phone calls.
Sandmonkey posted Sunday morning:
I am no fan of heroics nor am I exceptionally brave, but I feel the need to do this. We might all fear evil men who do such evil acts, but there is another evil that we should fear most, and that’s the indifference of good people to evil. We bitch and moan about the tarnished image of Islam and Arabs all over the world and how those bastards who do those things place a stigma on all of us, but we never do anything about it. Well, this is our chance! This is our opportunity to separate us from them. To show the world that we are not like those people, that our religion is not a religion that glorifies death, that such actions disgust and repulse us too. And this does not only apply to Muslims, this is the duty of every peace loving Egyptian to show those bastards that want to isolate us from the world that we all, Christians and Muslims, stand together in condemning these acts.
This was no mean feat. Spontaneous protests in Egypt don't take place without a lot of foot work before hand. Permits, contacts, places to meet and people that will join in and not be afraid of being arrested or harrassed by the police. Even peaceful protests without a political message are feared by the police and government as possible instigators to anti-government riots.
There were many stops and starts.
So this morning I woke up with a number of objectives in mind:
1) Try to rally up support for the protest amongst the Egyptian bloggers
2) Try to get the security clearance problem all worked out.
3) figure out how exactly to make this thing work.
The first was the easiest, and also the greatest disappointment: I wrote what I thought was a "rallying" post and then sent it by e-mail to every single Egyptian blogger I knew or could fine. I figured some of them might actually show some patriotism and show up. The only person that actually replied to me was Mohamed , and me and him kept e-mailing each other back and forth and it seemed that he will show up. I figured as the day went by more people may contact me or say something. They didn't. The Egyptian blogosphere is almost as apathetic as the Egyptian public : Big on words, small on action. Actually when I think about it, that's the problem of our country as a whole. Big Pharaoh proved that too when he called the Hezb el Ghad and Youth for change people and was informed that "such a protest wasn't on their current agenda, since it may benefit Mubarak politically". Weasels. Anyway..[snip]
I spent the majority of the day following up with Najla, who didn't spare any efforts on her part to try and to get us this permit. Our efforts were met with failure every time. And just when I was about to write the whole thing off and while all of this is happening, I end up talking to Dee who received this e-mail regarding the protest and-get this – apparently knew Karim's brother. You know what? For a country of 70 million people, Egypt is freakin tiny. Anyway…
Still, the protestest went on.
So the rest of the squad shows up and we start taking out position on the bridge. We chose a spot that has the Nile in the backdrop. Karim called from the States asking what's going on and I informed him we were taking positions, so he wished us good luck, and informed us he had another friend coming. We then started holding the banners in the view of the incoming and outgoing traffic. People's response was mostly the same: Astonished at first that something like this was happening, and then they showed their support by either honking or giving us the thumbs up. We were getting so many thumbs up I was loving it. The people were with us. Just as I knew they would be.
Read the whole story here.
Also, Big Pharoah in Egypt has his take.
Well, carrying and displaying the "No to Terrorism" sign made me feel soooo good. At last I did something. I felt as if I was poking my finger into the eyes of an ugly terrorist.[snip]
Anyway, the experience was worth it. And I have to admit that the policemen were themselves very supportive. They just followed the usual rule of Egypt's police force: do not allow anything to disrupt the peace no matter how good or bad it is. I just don't understand the logic behind this rule. Why would we allow only the terrorists to be the ones who "disrupt the peace"?
As a famous blogger is want to say, "Indeed."
Update:
What's depressing is how little attention these demonstrations got from the media (you'll notice that most of the links above are to blog reports, not news stories). If any of these groups had blown something up -- or even just burned President Bush in effigy -- they probably would have made the evening news. But when Arabs and Muslims defy news-media typecasting, they seem to be ignored.
-Glenn Reynolds
Before I Understood
Several years ago, I lived in Philadelphia. One of my friends was a crispy Brit from up around Manchester. She was in the US on a worker's visa, acting as a nanny for a wealthy Brit couple. We met, believe it or not, at a rodeo. Wendy had learned some line dancing when she still lived in England and had taken to the country and western scene (what there was in Philly), where she eventually met some Navy guys from down south, who eventually introduced her to rodeo, where she eventually met up with an acquaintance of mine, Patricia (Trish). Some how, we all ended up hanging out together. Three wild wenches making the rounds in the Cowboy nightlife.
Someday, I will have to finish writing about "why I am single" so you can hear the rest of those stories that include such things as being pushed around Penn State in a grocery cart, drunk as a skunk or jacuzzi parties at our favorite bartender's house after the bar closed or midnight trips driving down to Virginia to take in the PBR. Well, I don't want to give away all of my mis-spent youth. Suffice it to say that we did many an interesting thing and quite a few that would have caused our parents to cringe had they known what we were getting up to.
Not long before I returned to Kansas City, we were celebrating birthdays. Mine, for those that are unaware, is on St. Patrick's Day. Trish's birthday was only a few days after. Trish and I also shared a common Irish heritage. Well, actually, Wendy's people were originally Irish as well, but had immigrated to Liverpool several generations before to take up work in the factories. However, Wendy did not consider herself "Irish" in anyway. She was English and that was that.
It was coming up on our mutual birthdays and we were deciding what we would do to celebrate them. By this time, we had grown away slightly from spending endless hours at nightclubs, not to mention a rather unpleasant birthday before (okay, an unpleasant "post" birthday anyway). Trish made arrangements for us to see Michael Flatley in the Lord of the Dance [ed..updated from "rings" that's what I was watching when I wrote this..the power of suggestion]. I suggested that we go to a local Irish Pub after that which another friend, Debbie, had recommended where they would serve Irish stew, corned beef and cabbage, soda bread, Irish beer or ale and would have live Irish music.
Wendy was quite adamant that, should we go to an Irish Pub, she would not go with us.
Wendy proceeded to explain that the American Irish pubs were used as fronts to filter money to the IRA that had been placing bombs around England. Trish and I were slightly taken back. We had heard of this vaguely, but never took it seriously. Besides, we said, it had been a long time ago, hadn't it? But, no, Wendy was pretty adamant that she wasn't going to go.
A long story short, we finally convinced her that the US had cracked down on these folks and she needn't be concerned with betraying any principles. She agreed to go, but insisted that she would not sing any songs, in particular "Danny Boy", and she would only drink one beer so as to insure as little of her money as possible went into the till.
It wasn't until years later that I understood how it must have stuck in her craw to come into a place she felt actively supported a terrorist organization that had killed or injured her fellow citizens.
I even wrote about the experience on my birthday this year, reminiscing, amused by her response at the time.
So, about two months ago, a friend of mine invited me to go to this "Mediteranean" restaurant. It was the "Holy Land Cafe". Honestly, when she recommended it, I thought that it was probably run by some Jewish couple considering the neighborhood. But, instead, it was run by a Palestinian family who seemed very nice and smiled as they tried to tempt us with different dishes from behind the counter. As we walked down the glass covered counter looking at some of the cold dishes, my eye was caught by a miniature picture in the lower corner of the mirror behind the counter. Not very big and slightly hidden by the cash register, it was a picture of Arafat and written above the picture in the corner of the mirror at an angle in white colored grease pencil were two words that I couldn't make out right away, but eventually realized said, "al Fatah", in small scripted letters.
Honestly, right that second, I lost my appetitie. I could feel the smile on my face kind of melting away. I didn't know, of course, whether these folks really sent money back to Palestine that might end up in a terrorist's hands and it might be judgemental, but I really couldn't bring myself to eat anything. Maybe they were just nice folks that thought Arafat and al Fatah were the saviors of Palestine and all the money they made was for them here in the US, but I really couldn't make myself do it. It didn't feel right.
So, after two bombings in London this month it reminded me that there are many ways to finance terror.
To my friend Wendy, where ever you are up in Canada these days, my apologies for being an oblivious Yank.
Saturday, July 23, 2005
The Destroyers
Apparently, Jihad has no limits. It recognizes no barriers. It recognizes no non-combatants. Jihad is, in effect, a declaration of total war against anyone that does not belong to their exclusive group. Even then, they do not place value on their members, but use them as if a single artillery round, a single explosive that is used and discarded. They have already drawn the line between "us" and "them" and the "us" includes every person, not just the people they have spoke about or written in their declarations, the Christians, the Jews, the "Crusaders" as we have been called, but Muslims who do not meet their strict standards or who are considered to be expendable in the course of their cause.
These strict standards they demand for their fellow Muslims are contrived, demanding a single faith, a single mode of worship, only their way.
We need to stand with our Muslim community. It is clear from the times and places of bombings in Iraq, Egypt, Britain, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and many places around the world that it is not simply a war against "Jews and Christians", but a war on Muslims that do not conform to the terrorists' way of thinking.
The terrorists claim to be protecting the Muslim Ummah. They claim that they act on the behalf of all Muslims, yet it is the Muslim community that suffers the most in many places and, even on September 11, they cared not who or what religion any on the planes or in the buildings practiced. Because they choose to live in a modern world, in a free world here, where they can live as they want and practice their religion as they want, they are no more than apostates, sinners and less than people, that can be murdered for the price of a few hundred dollars and the unholy scream of Allahu Akbar in the name of an unprincipled and evil idea perpetuating itself as "Jihad".
There is nothing holy in the killing of innocents. This is not the command of God, whether he is Allah, Yaweh, or God. That is solely the domain of man. This Jihad they have proclaimed is falsely attributed to protecting Muslims when it is in fact a war committed by a sect of Islam in an attempt to gain political power and control vast populations and resources. They will not honor any Muslim practice that does not fit with their idea of Salafi Wahhabism. Even that is a misnomer since they have perverted the faith of millions to serve their obvious earthly and human desires for power and dominion over others.
Our Muslim brothers should understand that it is not the Christian or the Jew that seeks their destruction and remaking in our image, but within their own community these thugs and terrorists wish to destroy everything and remake it in their image. An image of violence and death. An image without joy. An image without freedom to search and find the truth, to search and find God. The Muslim community is at risk as these men continue to demand that these communities are strained and those that do not follow them will be murdered. It is within these communities that these evil cultists are seeking out the youth and calling them to destroy people and to destroy themselves in the name of a false ideology.
It is high time that we stand together and call these men what they are: murderers, thieves and liars.
Destroyers.
Condolences to the family and friends of all those who were injured and killed.
See also:
Sandmonkey: I Have Had It!
Big Pharoah: This is Egypt You Dogs of Hell!
Hellme: Excuses
Iraq the Model: Baghdad to London to Sharm el Sheikh
Iraqi Expat: Your Silence is Killing Me
Friday, July 22, 2005
Conflicting Images: Muslim Americans
Yesterday, the conflicting images of Muslims could not have been brought home to me more than in the two minutes I spent standing in line at the local Kinko's.
Thursday, July 21, I had woke up at around 5 AM and began watching the news, discovering that more bombs had gone off in London. The fact that I was up at 5 AM would surprise most people that know me. I'm not a morning person, but I did had some things to see to and I wanted to get an early start.
Even before this Thursday, I had been thinking that the Muslim community in England must be feeling more and more squeezed from both sides of the spectrum. The two sides being the British liberal society under attack by Muslim extremists pressuring the Muslim community to do more to help combat or identify terrorists in their midst and the other side the Islamists, possible terrorists, that are pressuring them to mind their Muslim identity, reject the liberal lifestyle they are confronted with and, if not actively, then passively resist the British government and its blandishments.
One could imagine that there are some Muslims that feel that they are being unduly pressured from both sides and that they would rather not be involved, would rather not act like they have "a horse in this race", would rather continue their quiet lives, working, praying, playing, eating, enjoying their family and, probably surprising to many, to continue to live their anonymous lives.
Just like non-Muslims.
Increasingly, as the war goes on, Muslim citizens will find themselves even more pressured, even more squeezed in the middle and asked more and more from each side to take a stand.
Until now, western governments have really attempted to keep the attention and the pressure from the Muslim communities, to, in a real sense, trying to keep them as a whole on the side lines of the fight, neither identifying them as actors nor controllers of the situation. We have quietly told them we need their help, but we have not actively pointed to them as a part of society that we need to worry about. While many understand that it is from this contingent that the terrorists have come or resided in, to some extent, the government has been, up til now, able to insure that the Muslim community is not completely and disasterously identified with the terrorists.
There are many reasons for this and some that many people decry as impossible or even ill advised. The first would be to insure that a minority group in the United States is not subject to discrimination and vigilantism. The second is to insure that the rule of law and only the law within the United States is applied to identify potential threats, interdict and prosecute. The rule of law is something that we defend and, losing it means that we have allowed the terrorist enemies to accomplish one of their goals: to destroy the very basic fabric of our society showing that laws created by man and not by God are corruptable and disposable.
The second reason we have been on this path is to counter the primary stated goal of Islamists: to separate the world into Dar al Harb (the House of War or the enemy) and Dar al Islam (the House of Islam or all Muslims). The strategy that the Islamists are using can be clearly seen in Iraq and continues to make its presence known in Britain. They understand the Muslim community very well. They understand their fears, their complaints and they understand their religion. All of these things they use when gathering recruits and planning operations.
Some have pointed out that the London attacks were perpetrated on transport systems in areas that are predominantly Muslim. Certain experts and other commentaters have said what I have been thinking that exploding bombs near these communities had a four fold strategic purpose:
1) They would blend in entering and leaving the trains
2) Attacks might convince some in the Muslim community to believe that they were targeted because they have not been Islamic enough which may convince some to revert to more pious behavior in hopes to avoid attacks.
3) Attacks might convince some in the community that their worst fears have been realized and that the British government posed or perpetrated these attacks to target them as minorities or because the government is ultimately biased and bigotted against them. (For those that question this possible response, I would say that one should be aware of the multitude of conspiracy theories surrounding such things as the 9/11 attacks which many still claim was a product of Mossad, that the Jews were told to leave or that, even worse, the US government conspired with Zionists to kill its own citizens, blame it on Muslims and thus give an excuse to attack them)
4) To cause the government to behave even more stringently, restrictive and repressive against Muslims, further separating the Muslim community from the rest of their fellow citizens in the country. Thus, fence sitters will be convinced that the Islamists were right all the time.
This morning as I watch the news, I hope very much that the man the British police shot was really one of the perpetrators from yesterday or involved in the 7/7 attack or planning another attack today or had any definitive links to terrorists. If not, I guarantee that the Islamists in Britain will make this out to be the British government intent on discriminating and targeting all Muslims and Asian/Arab people. When they first announced the "shoot to kill" order, I thought that, if I was a Muslim in England right now I would feel like I had a giant target on my back. If there is no good probable cause for this man's shooting, being as he was shot 5 times while down on the ground (per witnesses), this will be touted as an execution.
I shudder to think what the response is going to be from certain parts of the public and not just the Muslim/Arab/Asian community.
As we go on, we may find that the Islamists have chosen the correct strategy of drawing a line in the sand and proclaiming that Muslims must choose a side: with or against. The Islamists are gambling on our responses to attacks pushing the Muslims away and the inherent "Muslim Brotherhood" attitude to bringing them in. We may have to ask the question of our Muslim citizens that we would prefer to not ask, prefer to "believe" that they are citizens and that their loyalties always fall there first.
I honestly hope that we do not do what the British have done. I mean that to mean I hope that we continue to act within the US with the same calm and "due process" towards finding and detaining terrorists and that I do not hear that we have publicly announced "shoot to kill" orders for snipers following our citizens around.
Maybe we do and we simply haven't announced it yet. Maybe I have my head in the sand and am pretending that it isn't possible that we would have such a secret order. Of course, I understand in the course of police work when confronting a suspect, that suspect may become violent and resist to the point where the officer feels it necessary to shoot. But, that doesn't mean the officer is thinking that his first order is to shoot and it is usually based on a commiserate amount of known threat. If the assailant has a gun, then the officer can consider his life in extreme danger. If the assailant has a knife, the officer may be able to stand off and convince the assailant to lay down his weapon, but if a lunge or other attack move is made, the officer can consider his life in extreme danger. The assailant picks up some blunt object to use as a weapon, see the knife explanation. The assailant has only his bare hands, the officer is probably expected to wrestle the man to the ground and only consider using his weapon if he is in a position where the assailant can over come the officer, severely injure him or even take away his gun and use it against him.
In most states, if the assasailant runs away and is not actively shooting at the officer, even if the assailant is armed, officers are not allowed to shoot. Other states have the added rule "unless the assailant may pose an immediate threat to the population if he evades police".
This is commonly known as the "Texas rule" which has had mixed results and mixed feelings from the population.
In Britain, a couple of days ago, they pronounced the "Texas rule" was in effect.
In a conflicting image, on Thursday, after watching the bombings on TV, I went off to Kinko's to fax some paperwork. I was standing in line for two minutes behind two other people. One an elderly lady getting an old music book rebound with a spiral spine. The second was an Asian or Middle Eastern lady, dressed in long pants and long sleeved shirt that was not tucked into her slacks and she was wearing the hijab (long scarf over her hair and pinned beneath her chin).
She was there to fax something as well. As we stood in line, someone at the desk called for the next customer. She apparently did not hear him. I say "hear" because I know it was not an issue of language barrier. As we stood there a few more seconds, I noticed that she was looking off towards the back of the store absent mindedly and must not have heard the customer service representative. I leaned forward and touched her on the shoulder, saying near her ear, "Excuse me, ma'am, I believe he's ready for you."
She seemed startled and turned to me with a quizzicle look on her face. I gestured towards the man behind the counter. She looked over at the desk and then turned back to me, "Oh. Thank you."
"No problem," I replied half smiling and she returned the same half smile, slightly flustered, before walking over to the counter.
I couldn't help but think a few minutes after the exchange and the noise from the radio in the background re-assembled itself in my ears into a news broadcast about the bombings, it must take a real act of courage sometimes to go out, looking differently, looking "Muslim" on the day that the second London bombing occurred. At the same time I thought, this must be the way to insure that the Islamists do not get their wish that we do not separate our Muslim community from us as "us" and "them". All it takes to combat it is one moment of kindness and common courtesy.
I am hoping, of course, that this continues to be my response. The first response that I can always give to every citizen. The response that says we live in a civilized society and our expectations are that our fellow citizens behave the same way and have no intent to harm each other as a normal practice in our society. That common courtesy continues to be the standard, not the exception.
If it isn't, I suspect that the way the war is going has changed dramatically.
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Secret Agent Joe
Okay, I've avoided writing on the subject for sometime, but I found this via Donklephant at Huffingtonstoast and had a good laugh:
Let’s get a few things straight.
Yes, I sent Joe to Niger. No, I am not so stupid I thought he would actually learn anything. I just needed a break.
Ever since his last assignment, he had been sitting around the house in his navy blazer and grey slacks, watching home improvement shows and infomercials, and working on his pocket square collection, and I just wanted him OUT.
Go on. Go read and be amused. That's if you have any sense of humor.
Monday, July 18, 2005
Jihad Begins At Home
For most of us, there is a strange anamoly, a disconnect that arrives from the voices of "representatives" of the Muslim communities in the US. That disconnect comes from hearing an important spokesman for these groups condemn the attrocious bombings of civilians and then turn immediately to what sounds suspiciously as apologies or explanation or, worse yet, sympathy. It is the "but" that echos most loudly in our ears, not the condemnation.
I feel the same "but" echo in my own thoughts about the intentions or feelings of our Muslim communities.
In a recent interview with family members and friends of the bombers of London, I felt that same disconnect and wondered if anyone else noticed that, as the family members, particularly parents, continued to insist that their children did not hold extremist views and could not have done such a thing, the friends of these same young men were insisting that the men were angry about Iraq and one even expressed views that seemed to cheer their activity: blowing up innocents because they believe that "100,000" Iraqis had been killed by the Coalition.
As I read I realized that this was not some odd phenomenom, some parents being totally duped by their children. The fact is, these men continued to behave as they always had. Children can hold secrets from their parents, but it is often because the parents didn't want to see or did not find their behavior odd with in the context of their family. Neither did these families find it odd that their children, having grown in the west and having access to a mosque and other Islamic learning centers in England, would prefer to go to Pakistan to undertake their religious training. They did not find it odd even though they must know what Pakistan is like, that Islamists abound and that the Pakistani forces and Coalition forces are fighting on the borders with "extremists".
One would think, if you were from France and France was rife with shootings and bombings, however one might want your child to go back and enjoy the Sobborne and coffee on the Seine, would you send your child back to such a place? And if the Sobborne was noted as run with "radical revolutionaries" who were capturing whomever they felt was an "enemy" and sending them to the guillotine or convincing them to join their merry band of cutthroats, why would you?
One might subscribe to the theory that it is an act of pure naivety, imagining some pure place of your youth where life was simple and simple values could be taught. Even then, the claim of naivety must be replaced with the charge of ignorance. Willful even.
Let me be straight. I do not blame these parents for their children blowing up trains. I merely want to point out how the road to suicide bombings in the name of Allah is not some short stop at a madrassa with instant brain washing. Even in two months, this cannot be an accurate depiction of how suicide bombers and other jihadists, hoping to go to war, make this transition. It is not some sharp decline or assension to this ideology.
Like racism and other bigotries, the ideas that begin the path of jihadism begin at home, in the bosom of the family. A recent specialist in human psychology stated that "cults" are able to gain adherents by looking for people "in transition". This seems to be true based on some interviews. Still, in the midst of this "transitional" period, it is not a transition away from everything one ever believed, but a short step from the fence which they are walking with an idea that has been held for a while.
Where do these ideas come from? Do parents throw away their control completely and imagine that it occurred outside their sphere of influence?
I was not completely surprised to hear the parents say, "He holds no extremist views." Having traveled the web and forums, meeting many from different backgrounds and points of views, I believe I can honestly say that jihad begins at home. You see, what we would consider "extremists" they may find to be regular discourse. What they consider "extremist" is actually stating people should be killed. They don't imagine all the little things they say and do have already begun paving the path to jihad.
To Tanweer's parents, talk at the dinner table or around the TV about the terribleness of Iraqi civilian casualties at the hands of the coalition or at the hands of the mujihadeen "because the coalition is there" is not "extremist". Talk about the destruction of Fallujah as a "massacre of the undeserving civilians" is not extremist. Talk about coalition forces being in Arab/Muslim lands as "illegal" or "unwarranted" or "an insult" to Muslims is not "extremist". Talk about the alleged massacres of Palestinians at the hands of the "Jews" and dismissing the attacks of Palestinian homicide bombers against civilian Israelis as "what else can they do" is not extremist. Talk about the Jews being in control of governments, banking, media and purposefully insulting and inciting Muslims or planning Muslim destruction is not "extremist". Discussions theorizing the attacks on September 11 were perpetrated by the Mossad or that all the Jews stayed home that day because they knew or that the US did it to itself and then made up men like Osama bin Laden or Zarqawi to justify going to war, is not "extremist".
And, you can bet, in Muslim homes around the US and Europe these discussions go on. One would think that such theories and discussions go on in homes in Saudi Arabia or Syria or some other place where information is hoarded and controlled, not in a country where travel is not restricted, where information is free and open.
But it does. And more than the average non-Muslim American or European might be comfortable admitting to or finding out.
I would be remiss if I did not say that some of these very conversations go on in non-Muslim homes and between non-Muslim citizens of our countries. Many people are quick to point out Timothy McVeigh and Eric Randolph as examples of Christian American born bombers in order to mitigate the problems within the Muslim communities. One must wonder, when these are mentioned, if anyone would equate 169 Oklahomans with 3000 Americans and any number of different nationalities, races and religions destroyed by Islamic homicide bombers? Further, there are far less Timothy McVeighs and Eric Rudolphs than there are Hussains, Khans, Tanweers and even Lindsay Germaine.
So, as distasteful and sad as it must be to say it, it is within these communities, the daily dialogue and practices of our Muslim communities, that we must be most concerned with today. And, it is within the family that the first paving stone is laid on the road to Jihad.
What else was significant in the latest interviews was the information that these young men had become "more religious" in the last few years. What parent would ever normally see their children adhering more closely to their religion and their tenets of faith and culture ever see this as a possible threat? Most must feel happy that their children are not being seduced by materialism, sex, drugs and raunchy music. Of course, if this is happening outside of the family pervue without direct guidance by parents and discussions about what it means, entails or expectations of what it is used for it leaves children vulnerable to all sorts of hunters preying on the young in the moment that they are trying to find their feet and their way.
This happens in non-Muslim families, too. This is how cultists collect their followers. However, saying that it does not mean that Muslim families should not look into what their children are doing and who they are seeing or what they are saying.
To do less means that one might wake one day to find your children are strangers on a bus or a train, killing people in the name of false ideals and demagogues, leaving you but a picture on a security camera and parts of their bodies that can only be identified by shards of flesh and DNA verification.
Sunday, July 17, 2005
Update on Analysis: Connections
On my last analysis I indiated that it was Hussain that had some distant relation to a terrorist cell that was rounded up in England in 2004. I was incorrect. They are now reporting that it was Mohmmed Saddique Khan. This makes sense considering he is the one that most likely recruited Hussain and Tanweer. According to reports, MI-5 new about him but had labled him "no threat".
Further, Egyptian authorities contnue to insist that Nashar has no connections with Al Qaida or this group. A member of his family has insisted that Nashar only "rented" his apartment to the young men in question (Germaine Lindsay?). Forensics indicate that the explosives were mixed in the bathtub of that apartment. They are also insisting that he has no links to extremists or had ever expressed any "extremist" views.
However, aside from the "rented" apartment, other "coincidences" seem to link him to the men involved.
These are either some of the strangest coincidences anyone has experienced or they are very good links to extremist groups.
I expect that the US is looking into Nashar's "missing" time in the US and trying to link him physically with Lindsay or with people that were linked with Lindsay.
Egyptian officials may be repeating Nashar's claims as not being involved for a number of reasons. The first may be that he has some very good connections within the government given his relations with the Research Center. The second may be linked to this as the government will want to avoid looking like it had an extremist within an agency (not the first time) to save face. Third, they may be doing it because they do suspect that he has connections and that he has other connections within the government that helped him and is part of this conspiracy so they are hoping to keep these people from "running" while they investigate who he knows and what he knows. This may be subterfuge. The fact that they continue to hold him for so long while repeating these claims indicates they are still interrogating him which means they don't believe him.
Issues surrounding where he would be "tried" if it comes to that, whether England or Cairo, might be because their interrogation methods would not hold up in an English court (confessions under duress or torture are in-admissable). It maybe to save face and insure no other information comes out that might damage them. it maybe because some one he knows is pulling strings and is sure they can help control his trial.
Further information is sure to be forth coming, if slow, in the next week or 10 days.
Saturday, July 16, 2005
War on Terror: Connections London, Pakistan, Egypt, Jamaica, Newark, Cleveland, Las Vegas
The July 8th analysis has proven to be correct in nearly all of the substantive points with a few exceptions. The BBC has provided a round up of the essential pieces of the story. Information is flowing in and at a pace where it is difficult to keep track of the story points and put all of the information together in a time line or evaluate their connectivity. However, some information appears to not only connect these men with each other or with terrorist groups, but also with previous thwarted or identified terrorist plots and targets.
The Four Bombers
- Khan December 2004: cover story was to visit or care for his ailing father or his business
- Hussain July 2003: for "religious studies"; information supports studying at a madrassa run by the Lashkar e Talib (also spelled Lashkar e Tayyabe)
- Tanweer January 2005: for "religious studies"; information supports studyng at madrassa run by the Lashkar e Talib (unknown if it was the same as Hussain)
- Germaine was born in Jamaica, a British Commonwealth member
- His placement on the terror watch list due to his name appearing during an investigation of another plot was probably compounded by trips to Pakistan or Afghanistan.
- US officials note that he had traveled to the US, specifically Cleveland, OH in 1999 and one other destination
- Information on this suspect is scarce and may be so for reasons of an ongoing investigation in the US to his links and possible conspirators here
The question remains, aside from all of them living in Leeds area, how did they become connected?
Meeting Places
- Computers were taken from the site as well as other material
- This was executed simultaneously with the Hamara raid which tends to lead to separate information making each of these a site of interest instead of one place leading to the other (for instance, since Hamara was raided simultaneously, it is unlikely that material there led to the bookstore)
- Information that led to bookstore was probably generated by one or more of the following:
- Receipts or tranactions recorded on one or more of the suspects "cash cards"
- Materials found at bombing site with name of bookstore on it
- Materials found at homes of suspects with name of bookstore on it
- Information from relatives or friends about places the suspects frequented or talked about
- Receipts or tranactions recorded on one or more of the suspects "cash cards"
- Aside from selling "Islamist" documents and possible "frequenting" of similar places, investigation may be leaning towards bookstore as a communication hub for other possible cells or outside resources
- Expect to see computers, email accounts, customer lists, shipping manifests and ordering slips to be investigated to evaluate connections outside of the four bombers
- Reports indicate Germaine was staying at this address
Bringing the Cell Together
- Mohammed Saddique Khan had keys to the Hamara Youth Center
- Most likely had long standing relationship with the center
- Expect to see investigation of any board members, activity leaders and other known characters at this site for widening circle of potential support, recruitment and procurers
- Most likely had long standing relationship with the center
- Hussain went to Pakistan "first"
- Hussain became "religious" first and was probably approached at the Hamara center sometime in early 2003 (before the Iraq war?)
- Recruited by Khan? or another member or person that "hung out" at the center?
- Information says he was unable to complete what equates to a "high school diploma" requirements for neither secondary schooling nor a trade school and had been in trouble with the law prior to and just after he began his "religious training". Probably points to his anger and disillusionment with the system.
- Other would be recruits and documentaries point to "recruiters" find young men (and women) who have problems, emotional or familial, such as anger, dissapointment, sadness or a basic desire to become "better" and convince them to turn "more closely to Allah". They operate very similar to recruiters for other well known cults who base their abilities on giving the person a sense of purpose, accomplishment, membership, goals and rewards.
- Most likely recommended to a contact in Pakistan before traveling there or was sent with a "letter of introduction" or other form of recommendation to study with the Lashkar e Talib
- Reports regarding other "jihadist" traveling to Afghanistan and Pakistan all the way back to the Russian-afghan war in the 80's indicate that "recruits" are often told where to go and who to ask for when they get there
- Hussain became "religious" first and was probably approached at the Hamara center sometime in early 2003 (before the Iraq war?)
- Tanweer was Hussain's "friend"
- Most likely recruited into the circle by Hussain who introduced him to Khan
- Khan most likely did the same for him as for Hussain and recommended who and where to go
- Most likely recruited into the circle by Hussain who introduced him to Khan
- Nashar studied Chemistry at the Universtiy of North Carolina in the United States for one semester in 2000 (appx 6 months)
- Nashar had an apartment rented near the campus for 13 months
- Investigation trying to establish what he was doing for seven months in between.
- Very likely that it was at this time he was recruited into an Islamist group.
- Would check North Carolina U for known Islamist groups on campus and associations with Nashar
- Outside chance that he was recruited prior to studying in NCU and sent there for the specific purpose of learning chemistry for advanced bomb making
- Missing seven months may indicate that he was working with another cell or helping to train and set up a cell for future attacks
- Highly Speculative: May have been the consult on the September 11 attacks regarding volatility, explosive and incendiary nature of jet fuel. Original video of Osama celebrating attacks seemed to indicate that they did not expect the buildings to fall but had expected very large explosions and a lot of fire
- Other information from Mohammed Shiekh Khan, alleged mastermind of attacks, was that, while a cell was being set up in 1999, approval for attacks did not come until late '99 or 2000 as there were still questions about the viability of such attacks
- Speculative and more likely, his time in country coincides with travels of Lindsey Germaine, linked to plan to blow up Brooklyn Bridge. It is likely that Nashar was recruited as the bomb maker or was the person that taught these men how to make said bomb.
- Missing seven months may indicate that he was working with another cell or helping to train and set up a cell for future attacks
- Change in venue indicates that he was either recruited at NCU and was recommended to leave there for Leeds in order to avoid observation or that he was there temporarily as part of another cell or plan, using NCU as his cover, transfering to Leeds on orders from an operations officer to assist with planned attacks in England
- Expect investigation to show Nashar has long standing relationship with known Islamist groups but has managed to stay under the radar by not being directly involved or in coming into places and leaving long before operations to insure "plausible deniability" as he is attempting to do with his trip to Egypt two weeks prior to the operations in London. He has probably traveled on the context of "doing business" for the Egyptian center he belongs to or for "seminars" in completing his doctorate.
- Expect to investigate connections to Jihad al Islamiyah, the Egyptian Jihad organization that Zawahiri blended with Al Qaida in 1998 and is most likely how Nashar became attached to an Islamic group and was moved to the US for operations purpose, likely to have played a support role in multiple cells, both interdicted and still active within the US
- Expect investigation to show Nashar has long standing relationship with known Islamist groups but has managed to stay under the radar by not being directly involved or in coming into places and leaving long before operations to insure "plausible deniability" as he is attempting to do with his trip to Egypt two weeks prior to the operations in London. He has probably traveled on the context of "doing business" for the Egyptian center he belongs to or for "seminars" in completing his doctorate.
- Nashar moved to Leeds area in October 2000
- Investigation trying to establish what he was doing for seven months in between.
- Lindsey Germaine
- Placed on Terrorist Watch List earlier this year
- Traveled to Cleveland, Ohio in 2000
- Suspected of being connected to Lyman Faris, Ohio truck driver, arrested in March 2003 for suspicion of conspiring to blow up the Brooklyn Bridge with a large amount of amonium nitrate (fertilizer) Faris was identified in 2002 after the capture of Khalid Shiekh Mohammed gave up information on possible cell members in the US. Faris was of Pakistani descent and a US citizen. He had a license to carry hazardous materials, reports indiated that the license may have been obtained illegally.
- This is most likely where the Nashar and Germaine relationship begins
- Investigators in the US will be looking to link Nashar and Germaine here and look for their common links in order to identify the operations officer that brought them together for the Brooklyn operation as no other arrests of co-conspirators have been reported
- This is most likely where the Nashar and Germaine relationship begins
- Placed on Terrorist Watch List earlier this year
All Roads Lead to Pakistan and Al Qaida
Based on all information, traveling and relationships, it is apparent that the men were being directed by an operations officer outside of England who may have even been only a secondary link to the main operations officers and planners in Pakistan. At least three men traveled there directly and the fourth man, Germaine, had relationship with a Pakistani terrorist in Ohio who was fingered by KSM, a Pakistani and Chief Operations officer of Al Qaida. It is likely that Nashar has the most contact with operations planners and probably has a lot of information about prior and on going terrorist plots in the US and Europe in particular as he appears to be a floating "support" person.
Germaine most likely laid low somewhere until he could contact Nashar or another operative and be put in touch with Nashar. Of the other three bombers, Khan was also the likely "senior" contact with an outside operations officer and it was this operations officer that brought Nashar and Khan together. Khan then proceeded to recruit Hussain and Tanweer to fill out the cell with "foot soldiers". During Tanweer's visit to Pakistan, Pakistani intelligence believes that he was in contact with an operative responsible for the 2002 bombing of a church near the US Embassy in Pakistan.
Further connections, though only mentioned briefly, was that Hussain may be distantly related to a man arrested in the 2004 round up of 13 men suspected of planning to bomb the transit system in London. This cell and its plot were uncovered after the arrest of Mohammed Noor Khan in Pakistan in late 2003, the suspected "computer expert" for OBL who was accused of maintaining a website, acting as the electronic "messenger" between leaders and operatives. The men arrested were found on Khan's "address list" and identified as he made contact with them for several months after his capture on behest of the Pakistani Intelligence agency.
According to information, he acted as a collater and "clearing house" for information on possible operations from field officers. On his computer, intelligence officers found plans for attacks on London, the Prudential Financial building in Newark, NJ, and casinos in Las Vegas, Nevada. Which led to the increased terror alert in September 2004, prior to the elections. Democrat party members and news sources were quick to point out the information was "old" based on dates of the video and other documents as being at least three years old at the time. They portrayed the raising of the terror alert as part of a strategic move by President Bush to influence the elections.Three of the men arrested in the British sweep of 13 men in 2004 were charged in April 2005 with conspiring to attack the Prudential Financial building and other landmarks.
Videos found in Madrid in 2002 regarding Las Vegas were collaborated by the info on Khan's computer as were videos from an ongoing Detroit terror cell case. The Detroit four were convicted in June 2003 but the convictions were later thrown out stating exculpatory evidence was withheld and that key witnesses lied on the stand. The, arrests, trials and convictions were accomplished prior to Khan's capture. The verdicts were thrown out before the information from Khan's computer was deciphered and collaborated with other investigations.
The details from the August 2004 arrest of and subsequent detention of 8 of the 13 arrested appears to show surviellance of Heathrow Airport, the transit system and other targets that are dated as far back as 2000 and 2001.
Al-Nashar, being held in Cairo on suspicion of involvement in the July 7th, 2005 London attacks, arrived in England October 2000.
According to authorities, an "al Qaeda operative" arrived in England two weeks before the bombing and left several hours prior to the operation. Based on eye witness reports and the time lapse between the three train bombings and the bus explosion, authorities are speculating that Hussain, who blew up the bus, originally had as his target King's Cross North Line Train. They believe his plan was thwarted when he discovered that the train line had been shut down. According to information the line had been closed since at least October 2004 due to a train derailment in the "tube" which means that the surveillance information used to perform the operation was "old".
Monday, July 11, 2005
Enemy At The Gate: The Minority Dance
Aside from military endeavors abroad to attack the ideology of fanatical, nihilist Islamist and exporting the idea of liberal republic democracies, within our own borders, the danger exists.
It should be clear that what many have said is true: we have a large Muslim minority within the United States. Three million, by most estimates. This minority has demonstrated what many immigrants have done in the United States, to be independent, prosperous and productive citizens. This is hardly a plattitude or wink towards mulitculturalism. It is a fact. If it weren't a fact and a large part of the population was in anyway bent on joining their extremist brothers across the sea in destruction, it would be a bloody country right now with vigilantism, internments, mass deportations and destruction.
But they aren't. What there is, however, is a multitude of ideas and practices that, in many ways, reflect American society` and many immigrant populations before, as a whole. Some citizens do not practice their faith at all. Some simply recognize holy days and time to spend with their families. Some practice the basic tenets of their religion, but intersperse their lives with liberal living, free association and living within the frame work of open society. Some are more traditional, adhering as strictly as they can to Islamic tenets and prefer to associate within their own communities. From within these multitudes, a political voice has sprung up in the population represented by such entities as CAIR, MAS and other smaller organizations.
It is unfortunate that it is within all of these differing communities that extremism and potential violent threats can arise from an even smaller, even minute, part of the minority.
Many have pointed to the origins and conduct of the original 19 hijackers from September 11 as proof that it is not within these communities that extremism comes, but from the outside and that these hijackers made special effort to not associate with the Muslim communities or portray any real adherence to their own religious practices. This is quite true and the men went out of their way to hide themselves, not within the Muslim community, but totally separate and behaving as a secularized liberal citizen of our country.
But, history tells us that this is an abboration and that extremists can and do exist within constructed Muslim communities. The first World Trade Center was perpetrated by men who immigrated to the US on false passports, took up residence within large Muslim enclaves and used a residing Islamist cleric and mosque in Brooklyn as their center for coordination. Men already in country were to be the co-conspirators and one was arrested for for killing Rabbi Kahane with an assualt rifle also procured by a local as well. The killing of Rabbi Kahane has never been associated with Islamist terrorism but has always been reviewed as "murder" regardless of the perpetrator's ideology or purpose.
The reason, of course, that Ramsi Yousef and Shiekh Rahman were classified as "criminals" was because we had failed to recognize the danger and. certainly, no one wanted to inflame differences within the two disparate communities.
As time has gone on, and discounting the deep cover which the September 11 hijackers operated under, many of the terrorist rings and actual terrorist attacks within Europe have evinced from established, insular, traditionalist Muslim communities.
It does not mean 9/11 type cells cannot be present within the US, but it does mean that the threat does not eminate from these types of organizations alone.
There is danger in recognizing this threat and voicing it outloud in any security statement or official release. That danger is the possibility of alienating these communities and lending to prejudicial and persecutorial activities against them, regardless of how small the threat may be and how few the numbers involved. Even experts cannot agree on how large the threat is, how radicalized any part of the population may be and whether inflammatory rhetoric within these enclaves has actually created, on any notable scale, persons willing to act. Unfortunately, we know that it takes very few people to kill tens if not thousands of our citizens.
In free, liberal republican democracies, it is a natural act to secure the safety and liberty of even its minority populations, protect their political rights such as free speech. At the same time, these natural inclinations abutt the over all government role of securing the nation and the rest of its citizens.
To ignore the possibility or play it too low also presents its own negative connotations such as allowing extremist rhetoric to expand within these communities and possibly render a larger more insidious problem as time goes on.
The most obvious answer would be to engage these communities and Muslim citizens directly with awareness programs that highlight extremist ideology and the dangers to their youth, children and community as a whole, much as what has been attempted with drug awareness and anti-gang prgrams. Unfortunately, these programs with drugs and gangs have their own problems that bleed into the Muslim communities, as is highlighted by the existence of such organizations as "CAIR". Communities where police and other authorities are not looked upon as protective organizations to keep order and assist the citizens, but instead are looked upon as persecuting those citizens in these communities for ethnic or other prejudicial reasons.
With crime from gangs and drugs still high within the United States, these programs must be seen as less than successful and highly incomplete. Outreach programs and information programs do not receive as much time, budget or thought. Further, there is a fear that "targeting" these communities with information via regular channels, such as TV and radio, may actually incite prejudice and hate crimes from without as such information would be seen by non-community/ethnic/other religionists as possibly re-enforcing their own bigotry.
It is a fine line that free societies that are ideologically set up to protect minorities are loath to walk.
The question is, what is the United States doing to openly engage these communities?
CAIR and other organizations are on the offensive as they feel that any activity by the government to undertake such activities in any form outside of "channels" established by these larger political groups are, on their face, prejudicial and persecutorial already, "demonizing" the minority, thus hamstringing the government and causing an even narrower funnel through which communication passes, slowing the effort and possibly even sowing a greater disconnect from citizens, guests and government. This is even further complicated by organizations such as CAIR having their own political agenda directly related to the Palestine-Israel conflict, Afghanistan and Iraqi wars, and immigration among other foreign and domestic policy issues.
These issues are also apparent in reverse. CAIR's political aspirations and agenda often complicate their message from the Muslim community to the greater American citizenship, lending to discontent with Muslim reaction and suspicion of motives or allegiance.
Thus we continue in the post 9/11 world and in the wake of terrorist attacks around th world, doing a delicate minority dance while we look for answers to our security.
Enemy At The Gate and Open Door Policies
A foreign service blog highlights two important concerns in the war on terror. The Daily Demarche is a blog written by "underground" conservative Foreign Service personnel. They refer to themselves as "undergroungd" because conservative views on foreign policy, regardless of current administration, are not widely accepted at the State Department.
The first post from July 7th discusses identifying the enemy and their aims, referencing an open letter from ex Mossad chief Efraim Halevi:
We are in the throes of a world war, raging over the entire globe and characterized by the absence of lines of conflict and an easily identifiable enemy. There are sometimes long pauses between one attack and another, consequently creating the wrong impression that the battle is all over, or at least in the process of being won.
There are those who want to deny we are at war or believe that this war can be averted through appeasement and acquiescence to certain demands that I have recently heard referred to as "reasonable" by Tamimi Azzam of CAIR on an interview on MSNBC Friday, July 8th. Of these demands, Tamimi sites such things as Western (infidel) military forces leaving the Holy Land of Saudi Arabia, replacing "corrupt" governments with "just" governments that adhere to Islamic law insuring the rights of their Muslim people and giving the Palestinians back their land. Of course, there are several problems and contradictions with his demands which could be highlighted as not exactly a principled demand without some hypocracy, but the most important aspect of Osama's demands seem to be regularly dismissed or "overlooked" by his apologists and anti-war people:
1) The first thing that we are calling you to is Islam.
(a) The religion of the Unification of God; of freedom from associating partners with Him, and rejection of this; of complete love of Him, the Exalted; of complete submission to His Laws; and of the discarding of all the opinions, orders, theories and religions which contradict with the religion He sent down to His Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him). Islam is the religion of all the prophets, and makes no distinction between them - peace be upon them all.
It is to this religion that we call you; the seal of all the previous religions.
Read the rest of the Daily Demarche post.
Will we be able to agree as to who the enemy is, and what must be done, before it is too late?
The Demarche highlights an important issue in fighting the war on terror within the United States. They made this point long before the television news magazines thought to review it and is still a important area that has not been resolved in our immigration porcesses:
The LA Times has a story about the currently-incarcerated Lodi imam being known in Pakistan for his fiery anti-American rhetoric, but nonetheless receiving a visa to come to the US as a religious worker. The story may be found here.
The story points out that the imam had made flagrantly anti-American speeches, but that the consular officers who interviewed him did not see the imam as a threat to the US. There are three possibilities for why that is, which I do not know, not having seen the imam's application or the vice-consul's notes. One is that no one in the Embassy knew about what he was saying in other settings. Two is that someone knew, but no one thought to enter any lookout on him in the State Department's computer database (called CLASS). Three is that the vice consul was aware of everything that he had said, but that the officer didn't feel there was any grounds for denying the visa.[snip]
The reporter highlighted the problem of vice consuls on the visa line not knowing everyone's background, but the article missed the larger hole in the R-1 visa, which is that the State Department's regulations (the Foreign Affairs Manual) do not permit consular officers to refuse an R-1 under section 214(b), which is the catch-all refusal used to turn down applicants (tourist, business, student, etc) that the officer feels are not being truthful, or has other suspicions about.
The rest can be read here.
While discussions on border control and other aspects of omeland security continues without abate, regardless of a few changes in visas such as requiring "biometric" indicators and longer interviews with possible candidates, a problem still remains. All of the terrorists from the first WTC attack in 1993 to September 11 to Madrid to London (suspected) arrived in the country's attacked via legitimate visas. At this time, even London expects that the perpetrators are either naturalized nationals or in country through legitimate means.
In the most current incidentUnder investigation within the United States, the Lodi suspects are in country via legitimate processes. While the southern border and illegal immigrants can present a security problem, it does not mitigate the problems in the programs that extremists are most likely to use to enter here and for a very good reason. The hopes of the terrorists are to blend in, not just in the Muslim community, but within the mainstream of the American populace, acting as others do with homes, families, jobs and every appearance of legal, non-threatening and productive citizens until such a time as they enact their terrorist plan.
Another missing issue that is present from the problems on the European continent is that it is not simply current immigrants that have been "radicalized" outside of the country before entering. European observers indicate that many long time immigrants, even children that have either been raised most of their lives in the west or second generations born in western countries, are being radicalized by the imams and other "religious" workers that have come into these countries within the last two decades as "legitimate" religious workers to administer to co-religionist as well as prosletyze. In western countries with very open "freedom of religion" laws, this is an open invitation to creating an internal problem.
Friday, July 8th, CNN presented a panel on Larry King discussing these issues, though there was no mention of the problem within our visa process. One expert insisted that Europe has a higher proportion of radicalized nationals due to problems of integration and unemployment. The expert insisted that the US does not have this problem because the immigrants are more likely to assimilate into the culture across a broder spectrum of cultures.
This is the thinking that may have infiltrated the US State Department and government as a whole. Freedom House highlighted issues with Wahhabist extreme Islamic doctrine being dessiminated within the US through "official" offices of the Saudi Embassy. This was noted by a number of bloggers and by Bill O'Reilly of Fox news several months ago. However, this is only one method through which insidious extremism is propagated among US Muslim populations. Magazines, online websites and chat forums and, unfortunately, a number of Imams and other extremists having entered the US on visas or as political assylum seekers, much as Europe has experienced today, continue unabated within the US and many other countries.
The difference within the US, one expert claims, is that the Muslim population is more dessiminated across all regions of the US and not constrained within specific cities or neighborhoods/communities as is the problem within European cities. This may also be a false sense of security and American elitism. Some communities may be smaller than those in the European cities, but they are still often insular and, as proven by studies on immigration, new immigrants usually migrate to places where they feel comfortable among the populace, usually to communities that already have relatives or relations back in the "old country". This has been true for many groups that have migrated to the United States whether they were German, Russian or Chinese to name a few.
In cities such as Newark, NJ; Dearborne, Michigan; New York, NY; San Diego, CA there are large and androgenous communities of Muslim immgrants. While, for the most part, these communities do not represent any large threat to secuirty within the US as a whole, it is from these communities, or smaller but consolidated communities in many other states and towns, that the next attack is most likley to derrive as the Madrid and London bombings indicate along with scores of arrests for suspected ties to terrorist groups across Europe and the United States.
As proven, it does not take a large radicalized populace to perpetrate these acts, but very small groups that are selected from the larger populace as a whole to join, what Prince Turki of Saudi Arabia once called, a cult or, in more American terms, a gang. A cult or gang that operates within and around the basic tenets of a known religion and offers what cults have often offered: recognition, acceptance, expression of discontent, legitimizing and magnifying complaints as part of a larger conspiracy, a desire to be closer to God or some other higher entity, community and ability to act out against supposed oppressions and wrongs.
The experts also estimate that somewhere around 10% of the European Muslim communities are "radicalized" or subscribe to the extremist Wahhabi doctrine espoused by Imams in countries such as Saudi Arabia and such notables as bin Laden, Zawahiri and older "philosphers" such as Azzam and Qutb, supported by publications from these communities originating countries or religious bases. These same experts indicate that this is an unlikely number for the United States based on their view of the Muslim population within the US. It is estimated that the US has a population of approximately 3 million Muslims (both naturalized and born citizens) of many different ethnic origins. Even 10% would be approximately 300,000 around the country that could provide a pool of actors from which recruiters from outside or within these communities could develop their "cell".
Still, from a country of approximately 300 million citizens and 3 million Muslims, this is a very small number of people to attempt to find and head off before an attack can occur by an even smaller security force that is equally responsible for other crimes within the country such as kidnappings, bank robberies, serial kilers, hate crimes, anti-government and anarchist organizations and other non-ideological based crimes. There are very few good choices by which to combat the situation and several less than satisfactory bad choices that could be made.
These choices may become more prominent, painful and less satisfactory in a free society if the war on terror and extremism escalates.
Sunday, July 10, 2005
Bahraini Vigil: Bloggers Tell What The MSM Won't
If you've watched main stream media the past few days (at least here, in the United States) what you got to see of the Muslim community was spokesmen from CAIR and the Muslim American Council "condemning" the acts of terrorism in London and then giving their 10 minute spiel about why such attacks occur and the feelings of persecution of Muslims within and without the Western World, the anger at the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the invasion of Iraq, etc.
Unfortunately, we do not get to hear from the average Muslim citizens, either within this country or without.
Without further ado, a blogger reports on something the MSM missed:
A candlelight vigil was held this evening in front of the British Embassy to Bahrain to show solidarity with the British people, and to express our complete rejection of the terror attacks in London that took place on Thursday. It was attended by over a hundred people and was organized by a wide range of civil societies: Islamists, Leftists and human rights groups.
Of course, 100 people isn't enough for a CNN crew, but one could hope that the message would be received.
Iraq Analysis, Loose Lips and Cameras That Never Work When You Need Them
After reading this mornings headlines, I thought about withdrawing part if not all of my post on Iraq missing from the news. But, it hit me that my analysis is not wrong. Iraq was missing from the news for almost three days barring a minute's coverage of the four US casualties on Friday, even sadly, the missing SEAL in Afghanistan only received a few minutes of coverage. Today's news hardly changes the analysis:
AP - 23 Killed in Suicide Attacks: BAGHDAD, Iraq - Suicide bombings struck Iraq on Sunday, killing at least 23 and wounding dozens more in three attacks on an army recruiting center, a police convoy and civilians, authorities said.
Three. Suicide attacks, of course, to show that they are still committed, but the places of attack indicate the nature of the enemy. They were unable to pull of an attack against US and Iraqi military forces directly. All of the attacks were on extremely "soft" targets. Even in the midst of the fourth major operation in rounding up insurgents, a time when forces routinely take higher casualties, they are still not being attacked successfully. This insures that the insurgents continue to have to attack super soft targets since they are operationally unable to do so on any scale against protected forces.
The attack at the recruiting station took place when over 400 civilian would-be-recruits were gathered at the gate. The bomber was not able to make it into the base. The only issue continues to be the inability for local recruiting stations to maintain order and security in a large crowd beyond its gates. One wonders why these facilities have not set up a separate entry point, not the front gate, that consists of narrow, zig zagging corridors only the width of one or two men across and man check points at intervening sections where people queuing can be searched more than once (retro spective of elections and, dare I say, Israeli checkpoints). Particularly in light of the AP note that this base has been atacked at least four times before.
However, that last note does bring some things into perspective. This base and would be recruits have been hit four times and yet men are still lining up to sign up.
The other two targets for Sunday were also equally soft. Civilians on their way to work were ran into by a suicide bomber in a Mercedes Benz. According to authorities, there were no military or other government assetts anywhere close. So, why attack them? Because many of them work at a major hospital that does routinely receive supplies and assistance from Coalition forces.
The last attack was on an Iraqi police convoy carrying a police chief.
One other attack not mentioned here is the report of a family of nine in Sadr city that were murdered in the middle of the night. The entire family. The report went on to say that the Shi'a considered it an attack by Sunni in order to stir up sectarian strife, but it is too early to determine whether this is part of the Sunni and Shi'a contretempts or an internal issue within the Shi'a community itself as Sadr continues to try and keep control of the area.
In any case, while this indicates that the insurgents are still active, it is definitely not "coordinated" attacks and definitely is an indicates their wider ability to do multiple IED, VBIED and Suicide attacks on the same day is being diminished. They will, as I note in the analysis, continue to do some minimal daily attacks in order to show that they are still active even in the midst of these operations, but they are still having a problem doing 30-60 a day.
Fox news was reporting on the ticker this morning that the camera on the red bus in Tavistock Square was not working prior to the blast. Meaning that the one camera that could have given the most information about who, what and how the attacks were done has proven that Orwell's fear of "big brother" can be put to rest now. Big brother may be watching but he is often cheap and lazy when it comes to keeping his apparatuses for oppression up, much less spending time and money memorizing everyone's faces and recording them for a future selected to attend some overly efficient "re-education camp".
Now the British police will have to look at least 50 cameras and hundreds (if not thousands) of hours of footage to try to match riders getting on and off the bus at multiple lodations and determine if any of them were carrying the bag in question when they got on, but they didn't carry it off or if the bag parts are re-assembled enough they can look for the person or persons carrying the bag onto the bus. In either case, the investigation will now be extremely slow unless they get a lucky break and some commuter that is still alive remembers something specific like the terrorist was wearing a name tag, where they got on, what they were carrying and specifically had a conversation with the man where he said, "Hi! My name is Ali and I'm here to blow you away. Can you watch this bag for me while I get off at this stop?"
In essence, time is running out while a good, but controversial tool is proven uselss due to lackedasical management and repair. By the time they get any info, these men will have largely left England and flitted away to any Mediterranean Arab country where they can disappear and blend in with the others.
Terrorists - 1; Big Brother - 0
On another note, someone leaked a classified memo, marked "For British Eyes Only", regarding projected troop draw downs from the Ministry of Defense in Britain. While the MoD spokeswoman continues to point out that there are multiple plans based on different scenarios for troop posturing in Iraq (including those of the US), the AP article gives the explanation a *wink* and a *nod*, presenting this as a fait accompli.
The fact of the matter is, it was leaked from within MoD which means: someone has sold out their position and oath of office for money; the "anti-Iraq war" contingent within the MoD leaked the memo in order to force the government to explain and possibly adhere to this time table by stirring civilian demand and commentary; the Pro-war contingent leaked it in order to stir up controversy and demand to stay the course from other hawks (the least likely scenario, but must be entertained) or, last but not least, the MoD is very bad at OpSec and the memo was either thrown in the trash or passed to unsecure personnel like a clerk.
Mind you, this goes on within our own Pentagon, State Department and Government where oaths of office and allegience to country have a price or are subsumed by allegiance to party and ideas. One wonders how we were ever able to conduct a war against Nazi Germany had this been taking place. Of course, had it taken place, the news paper would have been boycotted out of existense if not had the editors prosecuted and the reporter would have been arrested until they gave up their source within the institution.
What's missing from the AP report is any commentary or from the MoD spokes person, is the inappropriate and frankly illegal act of leaking classified documents. One would think it comes under the heading of "espionage" in any country. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that the MoD or Pentagon would be hard pressed to search out and prosecute these folks, considering the number of people that might have had access and the time and trouble it would take to do so.
On a commentary regarding this leaked memo, it is very likely that the MoD spokes person's explanation of the memo is correct. It's probably one of many plans being done on any given day by any department in charge of military affairs in any country today regarding troop posturing and man power. The memo does state that its a projection for the end of 2006 and does cooberate Mr. Rumsfield's statements that there are benchmarks set in the progress of Iraq that will determine number of troops in the country and President Bush's remarks regarding "standing troops down" as Iraqi troops "stand up".
There are many questions one could ask about such statements including whether this is a signal to the anti-Iraq war camp in the government that they are getting their demand or a conciliatory action. In either case, regardless of not giving a "time line", commentary on troop movements is, as Mr. Rumsfield infamously says, "unhelpful" whether they are true or not.
As a last thought, I give way to the small, Machevillian conspiracy theory person inside of me that wonders if, on the odd chance, this isn't "counter information" leaked by the MoD itself to do just what we've said we don't want to do, give terrorists a timetable in which they can believe that we will withdraw, thus allowing terrorists to believe that they can reduce activities and conserve resources while waiting us out?
Then, the sane side of me takes over and tells me that this would be too Machevillian by far for an MoD and DoD that seems incapable of waging an information war in the media. Not to mention that the end of 2006 is a long way off and any enemy worth his salt would not give up inflicting as many casualties on the troops, infrastructure and civilians on the off chance that it doesn't go down exactly like that. It is what we have done and what we do today. Of course, we had to re-learn that lesson at Tora Bora. I hope.
Oh. I nearly forgot the Tom Clancy novel aspect. Are there enemy agents within the MoD and DoD?
What is likely is that it is a real assessment and projection, that it really was leaked to the "Mail", that the MoD suffers from "infiltration" as much as the DoD does from political dissidents, half baked employees looking for a buck or possibly even enemy agents. The first doesn't believe in war, the second doesn't care about war and the third cares very much about war and is hoping to win it.
Unlike we who will now spend our time discussing whether troop withdrawl is right or wrong and when it should happen rather than discussing and condemning what amounts to espionage, if not outright treason to leak a classified military document.
I don't think I'm overstating the case. The document was classified. The document was not a random choice of 30 such scenarios. They leaked what would be the most likely scenario based on recent comments from the leadership and projections of Iraqi force capability that has been noted to the press. And, they leaked it two days after the London bombing. That is a few too many coincidences.
It is espionage. In this day and age, we've come to accept that every activity can be and will be reported in an open press under the guise of freedom of the press. After recent events regarding first amendment rights for press and other members of the information world (ie, bloggers, radio announcers and campaign finance), it isn't unamazing to see that this little act gets shoved in the line with all the other concepts of a "free speech".
However, this isn't about a government crime, corruption, pork spending or a new bill with extra last minute amendments that are being hidden inside to facilitate fulfilling campaign promises of some Senator or House representative (or, more directly, an MP in Parliament). Even in a free and open society that prides itself on the availability of information, there are some things that should remain secret. Not the least of which is troop strength, operational ability, and plans for troop movements in and out or within a war zone.
Shame on the "Mail" for taking it and printing it.
One would think they would remember that "loose lips sink ships". But, of course they do and that was the point anyway, wasn't it?
Missing: Iraq in the News
In case you missed it in the news on Saturday, Iraq was missing from the front page of almost every news organization. Not the quotes of people blaming the British participation in the Iraq war for the terrorist bombings in England.
What was missing were the reports of casualties from coalition forces. The only report in the last two days was Friday, July 8th when an IED (improvised explosive device) exploded killing one soldier and wounding three. On Saturday, July 9th, there was no such report. No casualties.
None.
Even the defense link and found nothing about casualties for Saturday.
What is being reported is this:
WASHINGTON, July 9, 2005 – Task Force Baghdad soldiers secured a site about 15 kilometers north of Baghdad after a terrorist detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device July 8.
Four soldiers were injured in the attack and were evacuated to a medical facility.
The car-bomb driver approached the task force patrol from the rear and struck the back of the trail vehicle before detonating.
Military officials report that several shops in the area were damaged by the blast.
"The terrorists continue to show their disregard for the Iraqi people and the sovereignty of the Iraqi nation. In this particular attack, the suicide car bomber burned down a series of shops in Sheik Amir Village," said Col. David Bishop, commander of the 3rd Brigade, 1st Armored Division.
The incident is under investigation.
In two separate incidents, also on July 8 in east Baghdad, Iraqis turned the tables and took a deliberate stand against terror.
In the first incident, a local citizen observed terrorists placing a roadside bomb and provided a tip to the Iraqi police. The police responded, cordoned off the area and coordinated with the 720th Military Police Battalion and a coalition explosive ordnance disposal team to disable the bomb. EOD safely destroyed the bomb with a controlled detonation.
The improvised explosive device consisted of a 125 mm tank round with a remote-controlled device.
The second incident occurred when an Iraqi civilian provided information on an illegal weapons dealer.
Elements of 3rd Battalion, 15th Infantry, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, responded and captured the weapons dealer who possessed a sniper rifle, a submachine gun and three AK-47 rifles.
"Once again, the people of Iraq have shown they will not tolerate anti-Iraqi forces operating in their neighborhoods," said Staff Sgt. Craig Zentkovich, 2nd Brigade Combat Team spokesman.
On July 7, Iraqi police patrolling in Baghdad's Ghazaliyah area stopped a suspected vehicle-borne IED carrying three suspected terrorists.
After police secured the site around the car, the vehicle ran past police barriers and into a nearby police compound.
The police opened fire on the vehicle, killing all three occupants before they could detonate the car bomb. One compound guard reported he'd seen one terrorist trying to trigger a detonation device before being shot.
Upon closer inspection of the vehicle, police discovered four 55-gallon drums connected to the car battery. The drums contained 600 pounds of homemade explosives, said Task Force Baghdad officials.
The drums were later destroyed in a controlled detonation by a Task Force Baghdad EOD team. [snip]
That same day in East Baghdad's Zafaraniya district, a resident reported the location of two 155-millimeter artillery rounds to a patrol from 1st Battalion, 9th Field Artillery, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division.
1st Lt. Terry J. Rivera, the patrol leader, immediately recognized these artillery rounds as the same type used by terrorists to make roadside and car bombs.
Rivera cordoned off the area for the safety of the local population and called in an EOD, which detonated the 100-pound rounds with no damage to local property or residents.
"The local Iraqi comments about increased security due to improved (Iraqi security force) capability and resolve are not empty statements," said Lt. Col. Steven Merkel, 1st Battalion, 9th Field Artillery's commander. "The common citizen is now stepping forward and helping the Iraqi security forces and coalition forces win the right for their families to walk the streets in peace.
In the past two months, the Iraqi 2nd Public Order Brigade, along with the U.S. Field Artillery's 1st battalion, conducted eight joint operations targeting anti-Iraqi forces.
Military officials said that while these operations produced some immediate results, the long-term effects are just now beginning to be felt. [snip]
In other news, Marines from 3rd Reconnaissance Battalion, Regimental Combat Team 8, detained 22 suspected terrorists during targeted raid operations near Fallujah.
Operation Scimitar, also known as Operation Qmtia, began July 7th in Zaidon, 30 kilometers southeast of Fallujah. About 100 Iraqi soldiers and 500 U.S. Marines are conducting security operations to deny anti-Iraqi sanctuary for planning, training and storing ammunition.
The operation follows a series of counter-terrorism operations initiated by Marines in Al Anbar, Iraq. These operations are designed to disrupt terrorist activity.
The last large-scale Marine Operation Saif, or Sword, was conducted in the Hit-Haditha corridor June 28 to July 7.
What's it all mean?
Add to it the information that we know, aside from the ongoing operations, we have sunni Iraqis joining the constitution process and certain factions of the Sunni insurgency negotiating for political voice. Zarqawi was injured and several key figures in the insurgency and terror organizations have been rounded up in these ongoing operations.
According to reports, attacks are down by half in Baghdad, though other reports indicate the average number of attacks within Iraq proper areaboutt he same. However, the nature of the attacks are changing. Full frontal attacks on units They've been changing and rapidly in the last two years.
This does point to an intelligent enemy. But it also points to an enemy that sees its own enemy as implacable and undeterred by previous attacks, they've changed from large scale attacks against coalition forces, to attacking Iraqi police, military and government sources, attempting to stir sectarian strife, to attacking civilians and infrastructure with a few continuing VBIEDs and IEDs, to kidnapping foreign diplomats and, without a doubt, activating a cell (small and untrained as they probably were) inside a coalition country in order to motivate political opposition to the war, cause a major coalition force to be withdrawn, undermine the force and political will of the other coalition forces in order to give themselves some breathing room.
Why now? Because they are losing in key aspects of conducting a true insurgency/guerilla war. The "ocean" they swim in, mainly the Iraqi population unhappy abut the occupation, unhappy to be out of power or unhappy that they may be marginalized in a country where they are truly the minority, is being shrunk day by day by all of the activities that areoccurringg. Whether that is the political process, the anger over civilian deaths within their own community brought by the Islamists and insurgents, the continuing operations to sweep up members or just the general malaise that may enter a movement when they see that those they oppose are not and have not been moved by their activities it is happening, ever so slowly. Largely unreported, the city of Mosul that has been under constant attack by Islamists and insurgents, recently staged a demonstration against terrorism, boasting approximately 1500 to 2000 attendees. Small, but telling as the demonstration was held within the largely Sunni sector of the city.
Other factors are also at play. While the insurgency certainly has access to huge amounts of weapons and ammunition within Iraq, these are not indefinite or unlimited. Coalition and Iraqi forces continue to receive more information about known or suspected caches and arms dealers, destroying them every day. Neither is the money used to pay for IEDs or pay families for suicide activities unlimited. There are two factors impacting finances, getting it through as raids continue to sweep up financiers and interrupt flow across specific borders (mainly Syria) and those that are financing it may see it as a negative cost to benefit as the war continues on and uses up their own financial resources. If one is going to conduct a propaganda and guerilla war aimed at financially ruining a larger adversary, it makes little sense to continue on in the same manner when said adversary's economy continues to boom and current tactics seem to be grating on would be supporters.
In short, guerrilla warfare tactics of attritting forces and resources, works in both directions.
Manpower for the guerilla war must also be waning to some degree, also due to continuing operations to cut off the flow from outside the country, round up operation and financial assetts and, of course, using them in one time, one off suicide operations. The suicide attacks have two effects: killing of "re-usable" assetts (en mass as we saw in April and part of May) and demoralizing some would be recruits that had a rather romantacized view of what "fighting the infidel" would be like (ie, an AK-47, RPG or heavy machine gun standing up and shooting the enemy, maybe surviving to fight another day in a long "holy war"). Iraq still has huge tribal connections and that, as some continue to negotiate with the government or see that their tribe is being unnecessarily decimated in continuing attacks or that money can be made much easier and much safer by cooperating with Iraqi and Coalition forces, these resources, too, are being drained off the insurgency.
No insurgency can survive indefinitely at the pace they were going without consistent flow of men and finances. Other drains on finances from Islamist groups is money, however limited, being sent to organizations in southeast Asia (eg, Thailand, Philipines, Indonesia, Kashmir, Afghanistan/Pakistan; numerous sites of onging Islamist activity) and Iraq, as well as operations within many countries aimed at disrupting flow through unregulated charities and business fronts.
This doesn't mean that it's over, it means another change in tactics and a different pace of operations for the insurgents. At least, for the mean time. The expectations should be for continued low key and intermittent IEDs and VBIEDs; assassinations and kidappings if they can (at least until certain contingents tighten up their own security, such as Arab state representatives) while the insurgent and Islamist base review operation planning, re-establish logistics and supply lines, lobby for additional funds and establish more secure lines through which money can flow, work on their recruiting and, lat but not least, consolidate and conserve as much of the remaining resources to pull off a major attack within and without Iraq on an irregular, but continuing basis.
What they will look for is any sign of complacency or lax security in any one area by coalition or Iraqi forces, particularly in areas that may not have seen an attack for some time.
If the Islamist insurgents have learned anything from long, low key operations in Egypt or other operations around the world it is that this is the time to go deeper within the social sectors they are continuing to inhabit, become less overt in their actions and slowly build up resources (eg, men, money and materials) until they are able to pull off another simultaneous attack on multiple targets. This will be repeated on a varying cycle, but probably not as intense or prolonged as April and May. The immediate danger is, of course, in Iraq and Afghanistan, not withstanding the current Islamist activities in Thailand (which are largely based on a separatist movement, but have probably been receiving some training, material and financial assistance from the greater Islamist movement). With the advent of operation Scimitar, we should see at least one more major operation
However, activities in countries around the world, in particular Europe, in robust counter terrorism activities designed to thwart money, recruiting and operations may help to strangle their ability even further. Part of that "robust" operations will include outreach programs to Muslim communities within European countries with simultaneous round ups and deportations of known extremists for various crimes that might have otherwise seen them fined or serving short sentences within their host countries before being released back into their communities.
The United States must do the same intense outreach programs to Muslim communities with the understanding that these communities are more at risk from internal sources than from the government or law enforcement. There are indications that radicalism is less overt in the US, but should not be discounted as investigations have shown US citizens to be active in movements from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq.
One cannot discount the attacks in London as part of the over all strategy of the movement. While Al Qaida is no longer considered (and never was in some intelligence communities) a "monolithic" organization, it can still reach out to its smaller franchises and associates around the globe and press for attacks in coordination with its ongoing direct war. While the plan may have taken a year to assemble members, materials and resources, the dates of such attacks are sometimes fluid. This may be the over riding reason for attack on Thursday. Not simply a terrorist attack for a single political statement, but in order to bring the war back into western countries which was the original intent of the Islamist attacks on western ground and assetts around the globe since 1993. Particularly, as the western strategy has been developed around taking the war to the Islamists within their own home territories and countries that have historically supported them.
Iraq may have been missing from the greater news today due in no small part to the London tragedy and looming hurricanes, but it was also missing from its lack of death and destruction. There are those in congress and within the country that are demanding clear benchmarks that will indicate the war is making progress.
Don't expect declarations of victory. The best benchmark to measure here at home is to watch the news as Iraq goes the way of Kosovo and Afghanistan, slowly disappearing from regular coverage and commentary, replaced by arguments over Supreme Court justices, abortion rights, political rivalries and 2006 campaigns.
The battle for Iraq will be over when it is "missing" in the news.
Friday, July 08, 2005
Analysis: Attack on London
After reading Zawahiri's Knights Under the Prophet's Banner and the Al Qaida hand book and compared to time lines and map of blasts, including number of unexploded devices, similarities to previous attacks, my operation analysis would appear as following:
The Cell Make Up and Size
The Bomb
There is much speculation about the bomb and it's type of detonator. The police indicate that the bombs had each less than 10 lbs of explosives. Given the damage, it was most likely a high explosive and light weight. Probably stolen from a specific construction site, but not recently. The detonators were most likely timers and not cell phones as some have speculated for several reasons:
1) Using a cell phone on the underground or trying to reach someone on their cell phone on the underground is very unreliable and risks the bomb going off prematurely. (I imagine part of the surveillance for this activity included checking how cell phone or radio frequency worked inside the location)
2) Timers allow the operative to ditch their product and egress in a sufficient amount of time.
3) Timers allow for the spaced amount of time between the explosions and distance.
Based on time and detonation, includng the bus bombing that is being held as "premature", the timers were most likely set to explode prior to getting on the transportation and were set to explode shortly after being left on the train in order to avoid detection too soon.
These were simple bombs without shrapnel according to the police briefing. The explosions within contained areas with many parts caused the "shrapnel" to be created from existing, local materials.
Entry and Egress from the Sites
Entry
Egress.
These men simply walked away (except the unlucky bus rider) with the other passengers into the city. Most likely went to a pub, shopping center or some other public place where they would not stand out or be noted. Unlikely they would have taken a taxi or other public or individual transportation any time soon after the explosions. It would also be impractical to have expected a car to arrive at any or multiple locations to pick them up considering the road jams that would have been expected. After remaining in the city for most of the day with other commuters, they would have simply took a taxi to their individual homes or walked.
As Sir Ian Blair indicated, the cell (most of them) are still out there.
If they are well organized, they will not attempt to leave England immediately or in any time frame that would put them close to each other. Each man probably does not know the real name or home address of the others and has a separate route for egress from the country if necessary and separate funds. These men are probably still in their regular community and with their families. Probably even returned to work and used the previous day's terror attacks as an excuse as to why they could not make it into work or they are unemployed or in professions that allows them to be gone several days with minimal contact.
These men may leave the country within the next 30 to 60 days. They will most likely leave by themselves, first and then bring their families once the security situation has calmed down.
The bomb maker left well prior the operation. The cell leader may have left early that morning for another location inside England or on a plane or chunnel to another country after having set the operation in motion.
No one will go back to the safe house and risk being seen together.
The procurer is still out there, most likely within England and appears as the other men, young, clean cut, blends in, possibly married and appears to have a regular stable life.
Profile of Bombers
Intelligence agencies mention the possibility of "North African" cell meaning that these men are Arab looking, possibly Egyptian, Tunisian, Algerian or even Moroccan descendency or nationality.
The men were most likely between the ages of 25 and 35, still young enough to be influenced but old enough to be considered "stable" and well versed in their faith.
The men were most likely dressed in western business or business casual clothes in order to blend in with the other rush hour commuters.
The men were most likely clean cut and clean shaven.
The men were well educated, could read and speak English well (they'd need to in order to read the signs and know what train/bus to take and the time tables). Possibly have degrees in engineering or architecture to lend to operational planning.
The men were most likely married mainly because these men usually marry young and "married" gives the appearance of stability. This would also allow them to live "away from home" where they might otherwise be under closer observation from parents, siblings or other extended family members. Their wives are probably traditional and would not question who, what, when or where the husbands were at any given time.
These men may hold dual citizenship and have visas/passports to one or two other countries to which they could eventually egress.
Investigation
These will most likely go on simultaneously:
1) Identify bomb materials and research their origination. Back track from there where, when and who access may have been granted if from an internal source. If it has relationship to the bombings in Madrid then a search will be on for suspects from that bombing and their travel routes. May also review the shape or design of the bombs to see if they match any other known terrorist attacks around Europe and who the "prime suspects" were, if they are still free and ascertain their location in the past few months.
2) Look at bus security tape first. This is the last explosion and most likely would be the easiest to identify a person arriving with a bag within a half hour or less of the explosion, where the explosion took place and if they could relate that to a specific passenger who was on or had gotten off without their bag within that time or had been sitting in that area. From there, they will attempt to find that person in any databases, foot work within certain communities (sadly, based on his possible ethnicity) showing the picture and looking for people that know him, begin researching his possible acquaintances.
3) Review the "tube" tapes within a half hour prior to explosion or just after, looking for individuals that match expected profile that entered with a bag and left without. Will also look at area of explosion and attempt to identify any passengers that were in that area.
4) Review flight manifests or other travel purchases to identify any possibly known suspect with Islamist connections arriving and leaving England within the last 30 days. Starting backwards, I would look for those leaving in the last week prior to the operation in question and then work backwards.
5) Canvas known areas and work with community leaders to get the word out that these men also attacked the citizens and residents of these communities. Ask for information about anyone known to have fit the pattern and description of the operatives, anyone that was talking about blowing up anything, wanting to harm other citizens or praising any recent activity by the jihadists in other areas. This is the most difficult part as the communities will attempt to shut down or become introverted in an attempt to protect themselves from what they will see as persecution. This will take a lot of work with community leaders and organizations to convince these communities that their own safety is at risk as long as these men are free.
6) If pictures can be taken from the bus and trains that can identify suspects, I would expect, if the persons could not be quickly identified by any database of known criminals or extremists that the pictures will go up on the tellie, papers and websites asking for any information on the subjects. It may even be couched in terms asking some one to identify an injured or dead person or asking them for information about anything that they've seen as a "material witness".
7) Review security cameras in the area for film directly after the explosions. As much as these men may have walked away prior to the explosion, it's possible that one of them or a secondary operative, such as a planner or logistics person, was near by one of the locations filming or photographing the activity in order to use as propaganda film for others. This will be difficult undertaking since so many news stations and independents were on the site, but they may be able to narrow it down by asking news agencies to identify anyone that works for them.
8) Forensics including biometrics such as fingerprints. if there were unexploded devices or parts of devices that were largely intact, I expect that the law enforcement would be attempting to obtain fingerprints and compare them to all known databases including interpol, national immigration and local law enforcement (not to mention known terrorists data bases from other activities) to fix the fingerprints and person. Possibly even looking at DNA.
9) Review list of "missing persons" within the next 48 hours for any person fitting the profile of the possible bomber. Begin canvassing their family and neighbors for information on the subject to validate they were an innocent bystander and not a perpetrator.
10) Obtain list of any wounded treated at the hospital to look for any person that fits the profile and investigate their activities, family, relatives, friends, work, etc to verify their situation. Interview them and verify information against research.
11) Canvas all wounded that were near or in the cars that exploded and ask them for any info that they can remember leading up to the time of explosion. This may give a solid clue or at least narrow down the time to be searched on the security tapes.
Time
As always, it is time that is of the essence. The remaining parts of this cell only have two choices: leave the country ASAP or, deciding they are cornered (like the Madrid bombers) go out in a blaze of glory. They will most likely try to sweat it out for awhile in order to alay suspicion, but, if they cannot leave the country within the next few weeks, they may consider themselves stuck and go for broke. So, the sooner identification can be made, the more likely they will be stuck in England and easier to round up (barring suicidal last stands).
If the investigators are lucky, before the operators can get too antsy and with a minimum of fanfare, they may identify and locate suspects before they can leave or decide to go "final solution".
We Are All Infidels: The Question Is Are We Appeasing Infidels with Short Memories?
Of course, all of the double guessing and questioning and finger pointing has begun. They couldn't even wait for the Brits to count their dead and the injured, to count the cost. Of course, not just American Pundits but many in Britain, too. George Galloway said one sentence about the terribleness of the attack and then spent three paragraphs dressing down the British government with his theories as to why such an attack occured.
Of course, it was Brits envolvement in Iraq, according to Galloway. I went to several British blogs and there was a mix of responses. Britain is divided as we are over the whys, wherefores, and how we should respond to terrorist attacks.
I hear already the pundits saying that Iraq, again, was the wrong war and that we should spend our time and resources hardening our security here rather than fight abroad.
For those, like me, who look around, I see that we should be doing both with all speed and vigor. We can do both. Why we question rather either or is more important than the other, I have no idea. In some respects, regarding home land security, it feels quite like that we have settled on a slow, methodical approach hoping to put together something "perfect" as is our want while attempting to maintain our "perfect" freedom, thus searching for ways to achieve this perfect home land security without damaging freedom because we say that it would be a moral victory for the terrorists if we change.
All I've got to say about that is, thank God that our grandparents did not have such foolish thoughts when protecting the homeland from Japanese and German attack. Which reminds me, why is it that we cannot do the same?
I digress. Let's dispense with the Iraq argument. I am not a person that has been saying, at any point, that the reason we haven't been attacked here is because we're fighting them over there. I believe, with all my being, that we have to fight them there, but that we should not expect that it will make us safer in the short run. Fighting Islamists abroad is a long term strategy of denying them territory, bases and attriting their manpower, logistical and financial resources. It does not constrain them from attacking here or in London or in Paris or in any other city around the world.
It is only our vigilance here and in other countries that can protect us.
This is not an either or proposition and I for one cannot figure out how people can make that assumption.
Christopher Hitchens reminds us that the first three British citizens killed in Afghanistan were actually fighting for the Taliban/Al Qaida forces. And, what was the excuse for 9/11 or the first WTC or Khobar Towers or Kenya or Nairobi or the USS Cole? That America was in Saudi Arabia and was confronting an Iraq regime which bin Laden and company considered apostates and a cancer upon Islam. Had Saddam never attacked Kuwait and we, including most of the European nations, never went to Saudi Arabia and removed Saddam from Kuwait, what would the excuse be then? That we supported Israel? That we had companies and infidels in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, etc, etc, etc that had businesses there and who lived there? That these societies were being over run by liberal ideas from the west from products, technology and movies that were in opposition to the "true" Islam?
It is a war of ideas and it is a war that, for every idea of why or what we could have done differently, there is never a chance that we would not end up here. Bin Laden was convinced of his ideas and many like him over thirty years ago, studying religion in Saudi Arabia. From there his ideas were re-enforced by Azzam who had been such an idealist for over twenty years, having studied with Sayyid Qutub who was convinced of his ideas 20 years before that who influenced Zawahiri who went to Afghanistan to fight with the mujihadeen and met bin Laden in the 80's and influenced him even more.
Bin Laden is but one. Since the beginning of the new philosophy, the idea of utopian Islamic Ummah began to filter into the Middle East and Islam itself, this war was foretold and has been going on since then in various forms. We here, in the west, simply had bigger fish to fry and paid little attention to it. In our belief of struggles between monolithic states and powers, we determined that such forces as those arrayed against us could not hurt us, thus their preaching and the young men gathering in their mosques and talking in groups were problems for those states they resided in, not for powers such as we.
There is one truth which Osama bin Laden has revealed to us and that is that we are vulnerable to attack from people such as he.
Beyond that, every reason, every cause that they claim is a ruse and a lie, a step on the ladder of existing complaints that allows him to claim some legitimacy among those who, while not agreeing to directly support his violence, believe in his over arching cause and that is that their ideas, culture and faith are under attack and that they will soon not exist in the modern world.
That is the second truth that Osama and his ilk have said and why they are able to influence so many to his concept of war against it. With every advancement the modern world makes in technology, information, manufacturing, transportation and finance, it is inevitable, as it has been for over a thousand years of contact with that culture, that Islam and Arabic cultures will change. Not by purpose or stealthy planning, but simply by being and interacting.
Something that the Mr. Galloway's of this world cannot seem to understand in his bid for internal power within his country using these exact same sentiments to propel him. He is actually part of the problem and not the solution.
We all are because we are all infidels, even Muslims living here because they have foresaken their true identities to live in a liberal, western country and, no matter how hard they try to insulate themselves, much as the Amish have done, they cannot stop the change that occurs within their own centers of culture. It is the inevitable effect of cultures coming into contact with each other. Bin Laden and his ilk understand that and that is why they make no bones about attacking even Muslim areas and Muslim people.
We cannot change who we are. The modern world cannot simply pull back and never interact with Islamic nations or nations with Islamic populations again because it is simply impossible to do so. We cannot change that which physical, political and cultural evolution has taught us and that is that less advanced cultures always succomb to some extent to more advanced cultures. The advanced culture may be changed somewhat by the interaction, or take on some aspects, incorporate parts of language and customs into it, but it is inevitable that it is the less advanced culture that changes the most.
That is why Islamists are fighting and killing. In essence, we are at war because we exist.
I have yet to understand if this is too complicated a proposition or too simple a proposition for people to understand. Particularly those who consistently insist on withdrawal from these areas militarily. Even if such a thing occured, we would still be there with information, communication, commercial, financial and transportation resources, not to mention human interaction. From the perspective of bin Laden, Zawahiri, Azzam, Qutub, Baqri, Qardawi, their culture would still be under attack, even if it was passively and they would still seek to attack those infrastructures that supported such endeavors.
This is not about the west or truly liberal cultures and government alone. Every time a Muslim in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain or Qatar buys a Mercedes, a computer, connects to the internet, drinks a Pepsi, buys Channel clothing or Gucci sunglasses, listens to a CD of Three Doors Down, watches a bootleg movie of Chocolat, flies on British Airways or Air France to a European destination for vacation, smuggles in a Playboy or alcohol, smokes a cigarette, every time a western idea is voiced by a Muslim, a Muslim woman goes to work, every time these things occur, the utopian Islamic Ummah that these men long for gets further away and their own faith is tested.
This is the cause of jihad, whether you call it holy war or an internal personal struggle to find God and define personal faith, it is the same for these men.
Our Muslim brothers and sisters in the United States and other liberal countries are also in danger from these same men (and women) because they can never fully live the idea of the perfect Islamic Ummah while they reside here and there outside of the secure confines of this imaginary utopia.
Thus, we must recognize that we aren't "all Americans" or "all British" or "all French" when we are attacked, but we are all infidels.
Tomorrow, if we threw up our hands and conceded to leave Iraq and Afghanistan, a month or three or twelve from now they will demand that we leave Qatar, Kuwait and environs there about. They will demand that we leave there, not just militarily, but in any way or concept that we exist there. And, should we not give into these demands, they will then claim this as the cause du jour for another round of attacks. Should we give in then, the next will be demands that we leave Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philipines, any where we are that Islam exists as well.
Without a doubt, these same questions about the correct response to these attacks will plague us then as they do now and we will argue these same points with the same short sighted, short term memory that we have today.
We are all infidels. The question is, are we appeasing infidels with short memories?
Thursday, July 07, 2005
England Forever! Condolences and Solidarity
"Together"
England at War
Where Horse and Rider each can trust the other everywhere,
It takes a fence and more than a fence to pound that happy pair;
For the one will do what the other demands, although he is beaten
and blown,
And when it is done, they can live through a run that neither
could face alone.
When Crew and Captain understand each other to the core,
It takes a gale and more than a gale to put their ship ashore,
For the one will do what the other commands, although they;
chilled to the bone,
And both together can live through weather that neither could
face alone.
When King and People understand each other past a doubt,
It takes a foe and more than a foe to knock that country out;
For the one will do what the other required as soon as the need
is shown;
And hand in hand they can make a stand which neither could
make alone!
This wisdom had Elizabeth and all her subjects too,
For she was theirs and they were hers, as well the Spaniard knew;
For when his grim Armada came to conquer the Nation and
Throne,
Why, back to back they met an attack that neither could face
alone!
It is nor wealth, nor talk, nor trade, nor schools, nor even the
Vote,
Will save your land when the enemy's hand is tightening round
your throat.
But a King and a People who thoroughly trust each other in all
that is done
Can sleep on their bed without any dread--for the world will
leave 'em alone!
-Rudyard Kipling
And we, your rebellious cousins across the pond, stand with you.
A report from a blogger that was on a train and then bus near by:
Heading home on the Bakerloo, two stations past Edgware Road. The train stops, half in and half out of the tunnel, and no-one looks up. After a minute or two, the driver tells us he has 'absolutely no idea' why the train is has been stopped, but it has. Five minutes later, in an attempt to assuage or perhaps entertain, the driver tells us that when all trains are instructed to stop where they are it's called a code amber. I amuse myself by inventing emergency train actions for all other possible colour codes when two men wearing London Underground caps at jaunty angles appear by my elbow announcing that the entire tube network is suspended and usher people down through the train and up towards the exit. Tube employees are gathered outside in little huddles of blue, gesticulating upwards.
London Under Attack II
Two London Hospitals 185 wounded.
Attacks
8:49 Liverpool and Aldgate
9:33 Edgeware
9:36 Kings Cross, Russel Square, Liecester
10:45 Russel Square/Tavistock bus exploded (possible suicide bomb)
Al Arabiya now reporting Al Qaida cell taking responsibility.
Jacque Chirac and President Bush standing behind Tony. Says G8 is trying to solve the problems of world poverty and improve human lives while the terrorists know only how to destroy. Tony Blair still seeming very emotional.
Very simply, "They will not succeed and we will prevail."
Update 7:21 Chicago and LA now indicating they are reviewing their security plans
"Secret Organization of Al Qaida, Europe" claiming responsibility on website.
Blair now on his way back to London.
Update 7:27 President Bush: Expressing heart felt condolences to London. Been in contact with Homeland Security and instructing them to contact local law enforcement around the country to review security. Expressing again "evil in the heart" of people that would take the lives of innocent folks.
We will not yield to the terrorists. We will spread an ideology of compassion and freedom that will over take the ideology of hate.
Al Qaida statement says "all crusader countries" will suffer the same fate, Danish, Italian and all countries that have troops in Iraq AND Afghanistan.
(ed..Well, we know that isn't happening. Adding Afghanistan is basically the "never gonna happen and they know it" so they can keep claiming some sort of just war when they would have done it anyway.)
Update 7:37 Mayor of London gave speech. Speaking to those that came to kill. "You do not fear to give your life in the cause to kill. What you fear is your failure to take away the freedom from free nations, from this city. I can tell you that you will fail because, no matter how many of us you kill, you will not change London. A free city where people of all ages, castes and creeds live side by side in harmony. You will see that tomorrow and the next day, our railways, our ports, our airports will go on as they have, bringing people to this free city. People who are running away from you who would take away their freedom and coming to this great city where they can realize their potential and their dreams." (not exact, trying to type as he spoke, but very powerful speech. better than Tony's and President Bush's)
Update 7:49 saying 300 wounded at hosptials and possible 150 seriously hurt. Walking wounded treated at site and released not counted. Still unconfirmed number of dead.
Update 8:06 London police chief says that there were only four sites, not seven and the confusion was because people were leaving different "tube sites" that could see and feel the explosions.
London Under Attack
Live blogging as I catch the news from London. CNN is stinking with little info and Fox is doing better. Reports 90 casualties at this time. Seven explosions. At least three to four on the underground and three on buses.
They were interviewing some wounded and the police came and asked the wounded to go back into a local hotel they must be using for coordination of casualties.
Affected areas are Tavistock and Aldergate Station.
Sounding like coordinated terrorists attacks. Secondary bombs went off after emergency personnel came to rescue the wounded. I don't see a good cordoning effort going on to look for suspects nearby. With secondary explosions going off after rescuers arrived, the suspects are either nearby or watching the news somewhere safe and detonating from remote control although, the only way to do that with a safe distance would have to be a cell phone set up. All other remote detonation devices require a close proximity.
Let's hope that the explosive experts can quickly tell the detonation device and make efforts to determine the radius.
Update 5:06pm: Question about Zarqawi's statements if he made any that would point towards these attacks. He didn't but Osama did recently press Zarqawi to attack Americans and British at home.
Witness reporting explosion was near Kings Cross.
Several walking wounded, possible fatalities. Looks like mainly head wounds and lacerations.
update 5:09 AM Explosion unconfirmed in the Financial District.
Update 5:10 Cresswell station another possible explosion.
Double decker buses are being emptied and searched.
Update 5:12 Waiting for Tony Blair to comment. Expecting to hear the US increase terror alert sometime early this morning.
90 casualties are only at one station. Total unknown as yet.
Update 5:14 Soldiers are reported in the streets of Coventry Garden nearby these incidents and extra police and other security also dispatched. I expect this will be part of the cordon and search considering that these are not suicide bombings but remote control. Also expecting additional explosions. Ongoing.
Update 5:18 As expected, Washington DC Metro has increased security alert for transport in the city.
update 5:21 Just saw emergency personnel wheeling a severely injured person down the road. Half of a bus is missing. Witness said the top of the bus went flying.
Update 5:29 It's aldgate station and they are saying 2 dead and nine seriously hurt at Aldgate. Police are asking for the media not to speculate and cause anymore panic.
Police indicating that situation is coming under control. People should stay where they are for now.
Alleged warning to Scotland Yard from Isreali intelligence moments before attacks from AP. However, police spokesman not aware of any warning. No one expected attacks but concern was high due to multiple events going on.
AP in Jeruselam, Scottland Yard told Israel that attacks imminent. No one indicating this is accurate. (personal note, reporting this, but first reports are often wrong and this seems odd; would seem much more likely that Israeli intelligence would tell Scottland Yard)
Update 5:40 Picture of emergency workers doing CPR on a man on the way into the hospital. enormous traffic jams.
Explosions at Edware Road and Kings Crossing. Russel Square and Aldgate Station.
New York also increasing security at transportation centers.
Update 5:48 At least two bombs are recovered unexploded. Remote controlled or timed devices. (secondary explosions after the fact sounds like remote controlled to me...ed)
Update 5:54 Indicating up to 20 fatalities but no confirmation. Expecting fatalities will be held until confirmation with relatives.
Central bus route in London closed down.
6:04 Update Tony Blair very emotional and not his usual eloquent self. Says that terrorists need to understand that England will not allow extremists ideology to destroy their way of life or things that they hold dear. Blair indicates he will go down to London and then return late that night for the G8
Now Royal Hospital reporting 1 fatality and 95 injuries.
Confirmation Kings Cross station still ongoing rescue mission. Still cannot confirm fatalities but think there are many more. Asking people to stay off of the roads, that national train systems coming in and out of London are cancelled. Underground stopped and asking people not to call LAS (emergency system?) unless absolutely necessary.
Bus explosion at Tavistock square. Witness indicating many "bodies" lying around the bus but cannot say their condition (ie, fatalities or injuries)
Update 6:30 At Aldgate Station rescue workers are bringing out bodies and injured.
Indicating that Israel denies any information was passed to or from Scottland Yard.
Italian news agency reporting unknown group claiming responsibility in the name of al Qaida. However, cautioning note as many "crackpots" have been known to come out and claim such things.
Now seeing what looks like fire and bomb disposal units going up to Aldergate Station.
Scottland Yark Skye Reporter (beat reporter) now saying bus explosion an indication of suicide bomber. There is only one confirmed bus bombing.
(Speculation from me, depending on the order and if only one bus bombing and after the explosions on train, suicider could be person who did the main detonations and then killed himself. However, totally speculation as I have no idea of the order nor confirmed suicide bomber on the bus)
Explosions: Russel Square, Liecester, Edgware, Kings Cross, Aldgate, Lester(added) and Tavistock.
Update: 6:41 Now reporting bomb sniffing dogs and extra security into DC and NY subways. However, homeland security indicating no plans to raise security threat level in US and no indications of attacks here.
Update 6:49 London schools go on "lock down" and keeping all children inside
Scenes of complete devestation at the exploded bus site. Many seriously wounded.
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
Back to Iraq: All Quiet On the Eastern Front
The past few days have been strangely quiet, discounting the one IED killing one and wounding two others and the attempted kidnapping and successful kidnapping of some Arab foreign ambassadors, it's been eerily quiet on the eastern front.
Massive suicide bombings are down.
Anyone that has been paying attention to the insurgency knows that this does not mean they are done, down or out. As a matter of fact, ever since some jack ass analyst on television asked that foolish question about whether the insurgents could pull off a "tet offensive" that is exactly what I've been worried about. Certainly, I don't think these insurgents can pull off anything of that scale, but they can attempt to do massive attacks, large scale across Iraq. I worry about it more whenever the news organization "analysts" make such comments because it inevitably winds up as a tactic.
On the other hand, I've been hoping that the large scale operations across Iraq and the insistent collecting of top operations officers might be stemming the tide and ability to let off the "big ones". At the same time, Sunni factions are attempting to negotiating with the government.
Looking at the Afghan model, particularly Tora Bora, my guess is that we've been getting too close to the leadership elements left in Iraq. Odds are, certain elements have been seeking egress out of Iraq or to safe areas in order to regroup and re-organize for attack.
One thing can be gleaned from the pick up of so many high value targets, our intelligence is getting better. Not perfect, but better. I expect that part of the "re-organization" and "regrouping" includes a shake up of certain relationships, security details and re-evaluating safe houses. That goes from the top down. Even the IED and VBIED cells must be worried about anyone they come in contact with.
Also, as with in the days of Zarqawi's reported injury and possible death, with leadership elements being picked off, there will be struggles for leadership, the need to re-establish logistics and supply lines as well as questioning orders and expectations will give the Iraqis another day or two of respite. Not that I expect any rest from either the IP, Iraqi military or Coalition forces.
I expect to see at least one or two more large operations against known areas of insurgent activity to keep the insurgents off balance and get the Iraqi forces in place and able to take advantage of relationships they build in these communities, as tentative as they may be.
Some good analysis at Winds of Change on the attacks on foreign dignataries as well as a four part analysis of the insurgency that looks like mine but with better detail.
Cordesman's Analysis: part IV
Profile terrorists
Qaim Brain Drain
Review Winds of Change for parts 1, 2 and 3 of Cordesman's Analysis
Other things that you didn't hear on the MSM Iraqi's in Mosul demonstrate against terrorism estimated 1000 - 1500 attend in the heart of Sunni Mosul.
Further, there are discussions about the constitution containing too much reference to the role of Islam for some folks and another Iraqi blogger weighs in here. And, 15 Sunni join Constitution process.
And, despite attacks by insurgents, another power station is on line.
Don't expect that this is the "last throes" of the insurgency, but I expect they are getting somewhat tired.
PS...If you want to know what's going on in Iraq, watch the news and read yahoo or ap or any other news source. No, this isn't a plug for these guys, I mean that you should see what they aren't saying. The insurgency wants to grab headlines. That's their schtick. They aren't militarily capable of pulling off battles that result in mass casualties of other armed forces. We know that because they've been targeting infrastructure and civilians almost exclusively for months now.
What you see in the news is once a day, usually around 3 pm CST American because that is midnight Iraqi time and the news agencies have received their daily dispatches and organize them into information as they come in. In the last two years, the insurgents were timing their attacks for early to mid morning Iraq time, middle of the night for us, so that we could see the casualty reports and carnage with our coffee and breakfast.
It is now 7 AM CST and the news is reporting Olympic city selection, repeated minute detail of the Groene case from Idaho, reprisals of Natalie Holloway's mother's plea that no one accept the suspects released into their country if they try to leave and some protesters are in Aruba protesting Mrs Holloway-Twitty's remarks against their judicial system. Reprisal of attacks on diplomats in Iraq.
What does that tell you? If the insurgents were capable, they'd make sure we had much more to dine on with our toast and coffee.
Before that it was Michael Jackson ad naseum.
You will not see the "good news" out of Iraq ever so the only gauge a sane person can use is the lack of news.
The other tell-tale is the press release by Zarqawi that he was creating an "Iraqi" only suicide contingent. As usual, this news is not for us. This is for two groups of people:
1) Sunni's supporting the insurgency in Iraq; he is hoping to tell them that their brothers have not given up and are even more committed to the insurgency; he is also telling them that it is not "foreigners" that are fighting this war, but Iraqis, hoping to regain some legitimacy lost in the continual attacks on civilians and local hosting tribes/towns that his henchmen have put under the boot.
2) The "Arab Street". In countries across the ME, the question of whether this is really a fight for their youngmen to go off and do jihad on behalf of their Muslim brothers when said Muslim brothers appear to be happy to embrace democracy, their new elected government, committ to negotiations and be turning in the jihadists more and more (they don't like any foreigners, not just Americans, coming in to mess with their country). Some young men will be committed to jihad one way or the other because of their romantacized idea of jihad/war as opposed to some ideological adherence to the great Pan Islamist Caliphate Zarqawi and others want to create.
One cannot discount that good propaganda actually tries to turn a bad situation, spin it, as it were, to their advantage. So, what does a call for Iraqi suicide brigade mean? Occam's razor. With continuing operations up and down the Euphrates, the Syrian border and in known hotbeds for the insurgency, the ability to transport would be jihadists into Iraq must be getting difficult. Plus, Syria just announced the pick up of a known Ba'athist organizing the "resistance". Psychologically, this must be tough on recruiting outside forces. There was also a recent 6 page interview with an Iraqi would be suicider in the Times magazine. What else is that but an attempt by the insurgents to put an Iraqi face on the insurgency and an obvious attempt by Zarqawi's group to get free publicity for the joys of suicide martyrdom.
Recruitment must be in as shitty shape for the insurgents as some in America are claiming for our own military.
Last, Zarqawi's recent statement also contended that the Americans were cowards. Again, not a message to us, but to his men in the field. My guess would be that some are questioning the types of attacks and the purpose considering it has not resulted in any change in troops, operations or perserverence on the part of the President in prosecuting this war.
Even insurgent commanders must be getting tired of doing the same things and seeing no change in the course of politics, military activity or civil society. They are probably questioning the attacks on civilians as well and not enough activity against the coalition. So, Zarqawi says the coalition is cowardly to re-enforce that their continuing tactics of going out "in force", using armored vehicles and knocking on insurgent doors in the middle of the night keeps them from being attacked effectively.
Propaganda, propaganda, propaganda.
Almost Baghdad Bob like.
Of course, there will be some fools in the US and abroad who will see this as "the truth".
I guess one will see what one wants to, heh?
Speaking of fools, I caught Ellis whatever on O'Reilly last night talking about the Move America Forward planned trip to take Reporters to Iraq to find out "what's really going on". Of course, he was complaining that any such trip negated the viability of the reporting and it would be propaganda. He went on to say that the best reporting is always free of government or ideologically based influence or support.
I almost laughed my ass off. Seriously, that had to be the best hypocrasy I've heard in a long time. He also said something about the reporting from Iraq should be "free press" for the best and most "truthful" representation. All I wanted to do was jump through the screen and ask Mr. Ellis Whatever if this was true, where the hell are the reporters?
We know. They're in the green zone getting military press releases.
They are so idoelogically pure they won't even embed with the military for safety and still try to get some perspective other than the sentence blurbs released by the military. Now, who is relying on propaganda?
So, Mr. Ellis Whatever, nice idea. Your folks should try it once in awhile. Get out there and report. Might do wonders for the ratings of these other cable news organizations. I am wondering mostly, from the hysterical comments from the left leaning press about "propaganda" and "lack of journalistic credentials" (gee...where have we heard that before), what are these folks afraid of? That they didn't think of it first and continue to be cut out of the dialogue about Iraq? Again, why aren't they going? Afraid of being kidnapped and beheaded by the vaunted "minutemen"?
I hate to bring up this name, but I recall during the Kosovo and Bosnia affair watching Christian Amanpour ducking bullets and telling us about the atrocities there.
I don't like Christian Amanpour ideologically, but for guts, she used to have some. Can't really be said for her successors.
Until then, I think we're smart enough to know if somebody is pulling the wool over our eyes. I mean, we did stop watching CNN and MSN, didn't we?
Tuesday, July 05, 2005
We the People...
We the people...
Nobody ever really wonders about who the "we" is in our most famous document, the Constitution of the United States. "We" is every citizen in the newly formed states. Well, almost every citizen. We know now that "we" didn't include slaves, native Indians or women.
I always find it interesting when people point that out, as if, by some strange happenstance, our current liberal ideas should have been transported through time and culture to inhabit the minds of these men. They fail to recognize, in their own radicalism, the radical ideas of the men who wrote and signed such radical documents as a Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.
What could be more radical in an age of monarchies than to proclaim that government came from "the people"?
Britain may have had its parliament, but the king was still a power onto himself. Historically, even after centuries of parliament, the kings and queens of Britain could still proclaim "off with his/her head" and almost certainly get their way; judicial processes not withstanding. Parliament really gained its power upon the establishment of the Prince Regent over King George III. Arguably, the Prince Regent was not well versed in politics. Until then, the House of Lords was still the most powerful parlaimentary house in the English government.
The House of Commons really came to power in the 19th century as the English middle class grew in the face of industrialization and expanded trade around the globe. The concept of rule "by the people" and "for the people" alone, without an elite ruling class was the most radical idea of the day and it was taking place in the United States.
I do want to point out an important aspect of these words: "We the people..."
I've always said the founding fathers were brilliant thinkers and always had their eyes on the future. I note they say "we the people" and not "we the men" or "we the elected" or "we the representatives". "People" as a word is fairly inclusive and very open. It doesn't say "protestants" or "whites", it says "people" recognizing that in the future, the country they invisioned would include a huge number of people from diverse backgrounds, countries and religion.
As a matter of fact, one of their chief complaints against King George in the Declaration of Independence was that he had limited immigration.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
I think that they may have even recognized that some where in there, women were important in the make up of American politics, even if that recognition was still limited to the thoughts of what their wives might think about things they said or signed into law. Women might not have voted back then, but they still held power. Particularly in a day and age when sending your laundry out or running down to the local tavern every night for dinner was extremely costly and not very practical.
Thus, the forefathers, the most radical thinkers of the day, chose the opening words of the Constitution to be the most radical statement they could make:
We the people...
Sunday, July 03, 2005
Fourth of July: Independence Day
I'll be very busy on Indepdence Day going to the parade, having a BBQ, visiting with friends and family, then we'll be watching the fireworks. Starting this evening, I will be without a computer for several days again. So, if you don't see a post, I'm still here.
Remember to support our troops.
Patriot Posts: An Act of War
It had been about three minutes since American Airlines Flight 11 crashed into the tower. Later, Sean would discover that the airplane had literally flown right through his office. But at that moment he knew nothing of the kind.
He decided he wasn't going to take any chances. Once decided, it was as if the whole situation had become immediately clear to him, just how much danger he was in. He called his wife. She didn't answer at her desk, so he tried her cell.
"Oh my God, your office is burning," she answered. She told him she was in a different office, one where she could see his building.
"I'm leaving," he said. "Meet me outside somewhere."
"I have meetings," she answered almost robotically.
"I don't like this at all," he said. "I'm coming over to get you."
"Sean, no, I'm fine. I hope everybody's okay in your office..."
Sean's elevator stopped at the 45th floor. It swung like a pendulum back and forth. The doors didn't open.
[Mudvillegazette
And this man who is leaving to go on his third tour Today I Leave for the War:
K, you have been the best sister a brother could ever have, you and I had some good fights when we were kids, but you were always there if I truly needed you. We don't see eye to eye on anything political, and you are one of those people calling for our troops to come home now. I love you, but you are wrong in this count, you have three boys and if we don't do this right, it will have to be done again and it could be your boys next time. When I'm in Iraq, I think about my three nephews and how I don't want to see them in DCU's in the next decade, I want to fight our enemies in their country until they either surrender or become so ineffective they aren't a threat to any of us.[snip]
Mom, I was the baby of the family and I know you still view me as that little boy that wouldn't eat his green beans and only wanted peanut butter. I am still that little boy inside, but I am so much more now, I am a husband and a veteran, and now a successful man with my own family. I chose to go back to Iraq this time, because I believe in a better world. At 30 I am more of an idealist now than I was at 20, I believe one person can make a difference. [snip]
The most fundamental question I ask myself everday is: If I have the chance to do good, even if there is a terrible price to pay, why wouldn't I? I wish more Americans would ask themselves this question, if you can do good, what on earth would stop you from following through?
There is so much more. Make sure you read the rest.
I remember the words at the top of almost every newspaper, "An Act of War!" they all screamed. My nephews were asking me if they were going to be hit by an airplane. I told them "no" but I don't know if I was telling them the truth. What I know is, some people suffered more and some people sacrifice more.
Remember our troops.
Special Forces Afghanistan: Names of the Fallen
Froggy Rumminations has the names of the fallen Seal and Air Force Special Operations Teams in Afghanistan. They died going to rescue their own, our men in Afghanistan, continuing to take the war to the terrorists who destroyed our buildings and attacked freedom September 11, 2001.
Please go to Froggy's and leave a message for the families.
SEAL Delivery Vehicle Team ONE, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii
Senior Chief Petty Officer Daniel R. Healy, 36, of Exeter, N.H.
Petty Officer 2nd Class James Suh, 28, of Deerfield Beach, Fla.
Petty Officer 2nd Class Eric S. Patton, 22, of Boulder City, Nev.
SEAL Team TEN, Little Creek, VA
Lt. Cmdr. Erik S. Kristensen, 33, of San Diego, Calif.
Lt. Michael M. McGreevy, Jr., 30, of Portville, N.Y.
Chief Petty Officer Jacques J. Fontan, 36, of New Orleans, La.
Petty Officer 1st Class Jeffery A. Lucas, 33, of Corbett, Ore.
Petty Officer 1st Class Jeffrey S. Taylor, 30, of Midway, W.Va.
160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, Hunter Army Airfield, GA
Maj. Stephen C. Reich, 34, of Washington Depot, Conn
Chief Warrant Officer Chris J. Scherkenbach, 40, of Jacksonville, Fla.
Chief Warrant Officer Corey J. Goodnature, 35, of Clarks Grove, Minn.
MSgt James W. Ponder III, 36, of Franklin, Tenn.
Sgt. 1st Class Marcus V. Muralles, 33, of Shelbyville, Ind.
Sgt. 1st Class Michael L. Russell, 31, of Stafford, Va.
SSgt. Shamus O. Goare, 29, of Danville, Ohio
Sgt. Kip A. Jacoby, 21, of Pompano Beach, Fla.
Navy Seal Home Page
Cyber Seals Memorial
Travel with care life's highway with it's hidden gates to hell.
Flowers, balloons, plush silk baskets, a young girls tender heart.
Oh, precious life dressed and wrapped in Navy Blues now stained
with blood.
Dashed dreams, what prayer of peace or joy to heal such wounds.
Her hearts love that slumbers on some distant battlefield.
Flag draped coffins once again to fill our country chapels.
Their names and faces forever etched upon our souls.
Heroic Acts and Glory Tales now cast shadow's across our land.
Wisdom, Patience, Gods sweet Grace.
To Understand the reason or the rhyme, Summertime now gone with leaves that are sweetly turning -
someone sang the song.
And I'll cling to you forever
the poet pens his tales of life and love to barren hearts full of hate that now hold yesterday's sweet rose.
Stale now the fragrant petals of life first love, but in time there will come a Rare Tender Bloom To Heal The Human Tear.
C.G. Majors
Former Navy SEAL
SEAL Team One
>
Saturday, July 02, 2005
July 4th Independence Day: Patriot PostsWalkin' On The Fightin' Side of Me
I intended to continue my commentary on Zawahiri's book but I decided that I should pause and spend time talking this weekend about freedom, patriotism and joy of being an American.
I hear people talkin' bad,
About the way we have to live here in this country,
Harpin' on the wars we fight,
An' gripin' 'bout the way things oughta be.
An' I don't mind 'em switchin' sides,
An' standin' up for things they believe in.
When they're runnin' down my country, man,
They're walkin' on the fightin' side of me.
Yeah, walkin' on the fightin' side of me.
Runnin' down the way of life,
Our fightin' men have fought and died to keep.
If you don't love it, leave it:
Let this song I'm singin' be a warnin'.
If you're runnin' down my country, man,
You're walkin' on the fightin' side of me.
-Merle Hagard
Yeah, we have to hear folks talking smack about our country, even folks that live here. I suppose we all have our idea about what this country stands for and what we think we ought to be doing. Some folks think that they should say whatever they want, even politicos who are elected by us to represent us. Sometimes, though, I wonder if they know who they represent? It seems it can be lost in the partisan peacock dance that goes on up at the hill. Some of us turn it off and turn it down, turn away rolling our eyes and just get on with worrying about the important things, like our men and women over seas and moving the country forward, even in these troubled times.
You know, I tried to tell people before what it's like out here in my part of the country. I tried to articulate what we believe, but some folks don't listen very well. I hear some folks saying that their comments are because they care about the troops, too and just want to make sure they come home safe. If it was as simple as that, I'd probably never have a moments concern about what gets said.
Some folks like me are concerned about whether our men have the best they can get and whether they are taken care of. Sometimes, though, I'm concerned about what gets said about their armor and their readiness. Not cause I don't want to know, but because I don't want the bad guys to know.
Why don't those politicians up there on the hill get this?
Well, I guess it's too much to ask that they put aside their aspirations for political office completely and put America, her people and her soldiers ahead of it. It's too easy for them to forget, to believe that this is nothing and can be put away quickly. I think they want to re-think this strategy of going after these folks that hurt us.
You know, it's kind of strange for me, when the enemy pronounces they are at war with you, puts it in writing, speaks it and then attacks you and some folks want to pretend that you don't have to confront them, the bad guys, or that there is some alternative, conspiratal reason why we'd go to war in some place like Iraq.
You know, we didn't proclaim war on these folks, they proclaimed it on us. But, I guess war is scary. It's angry, it's bloody, it's dangerous and it means people die. Nobody wants that. Nobody.
A patriot doesn't want his fellow citizens to die. A patriot wants them to live.
Well, for some folks, that's where it stops. A patriot wants them to live. But, for some of us, we understand that a patriot knows when they have to sacrifice so that the many can live. Sometimes, a patriot is just the one that knows they've got a job to do and even when it gets tough, they go on and do it, hoping for the day when they can come home and live quietly, enjoying just driving down the road, having barbeques with their families, sleeping late, going to the grocery store when they want, watching TV, going to the races, all the things that we back here get to do without a thought.
Maybe that's the thing that kind of gets us into trouble. Unless you've got a family member in the military, most of us aren't sacrificing much except a few minutes watching the news at night, getting the latest casualty reports, or reading the paper. Some of us keep track of the war and know people that are over there because we make it our business to know, but still, we don't know sacrifice.
I guess that's why some folks just don't get it.
Then there are those that are waiting quietly, trying to to keep up with the news, supporting the men and women, if only with their belief in them as some of the best America has to offer.
Down here, in the state of Missouri, we don't get protesters. I don't know what goes on at the college campuses, but they aren't in our streets. There are so many "God bless the USA", "Support our Troops" stickers and flags around, you can't really count them. I tried one night, sitting at my local McDonalds, facing the street, eating some fries and a shake, looking at the cars go by, I decided to start counting. Well, I got up around a hundred in about thirty minutes and I knew I'd missed some.
I'm not saying that's proof of patriotism. I'm saying that, here, we have a quiet belief in the good of this country, in its core ideas and in the men and women that serve it.
On July fourth, there will be a giant display down by the river and every little town and community in the area will have fire works, parades, and community get togethers. This year, more than even last year, there are going to be a number of "support the troops" activities. The big one down town is going to have a "support the troops" walk-a-thon to raise money for the local organizations doing work with the families of the deployed and sending care packages to the men and women over seas.
You see, we don't get flag burning and protesters with effigies in this part of the country. We're too far from the coasts, we don't get national media unless a tornado rips the roof off of folks' houses and we have too many men and women that go to serve.
I guess, we just have that quiet midwestern thing where we believe the best of our country. I know, some might call it naive. We just don't like it when people kill our people. We get that Missouri Mule thing going on and just dig in our heels.
We have many folks here that come from all over the country and the world, really, to live here. Maybe not like the coastal places or other big cities, but we have our fair share. We also have people that have lived here for generations. Born from the type of people that came out and eked a living off the prairie, leaving everything they knew behind, every convenience, people they knew and came here with a few of their immediate family and stayed.
We still celebrate those days with "Prairie Days" and "Santa Fe Trail Days". We still remember the pioneers that risked everything to make something in the new territory opened up.
But we also celebrate our Indian heritage with Pow-Wows and other get togethers. Some folks think we ought to still feel guilty about the westward expansion. But, unlike those folks on the east coast, we've long come to terms with that and with our fellow American Indian citizens. We recognize them as part of our great nation. Part of the thing that makes America what it is.
It took a long time to get here and we don't plan to let anyone mess it up.
No enemy, foreign or domestic.
I hate to talk for everyone in the mid-west of course, that's a little arrogant on anyone's part, but I am hoping to try to convey why some things folks say are just bound to tick us off instead of convince us that we should change our minds or turn against our country. I've tried to explain about those of us in the middle ground and wars, we don't believe that wars we're in are "that war" or "his war" or a "wrong war" or a "Republican's War" or a "Democrat's war". We believe that it's America's war. We believe it's OUR war, particularly when it's our men and women going. Further, when we're battling suicide bombers and terrorists screaming allahu akbar and beheading people, we get the idea that these are the same folks that attacked us here.
So, it might be more complicated up in Washington, but it is pretty simple here. The enemy is there and it should be confronted and destroyed.
And our men and women keep signing up. Sadly, some have come home in flag draped coffins. For them, the war is over. For them, we reserve our deepest love and gratitude. For them, whole towns turn out to celebrate the life of these folks, our men and women, and pay tribute to their patriotism.
The patriotism of service to country and fellow citizens.
I know that some think that ending the war is the best way to save our men and women. For us, though, what comes first is keeping us safe and what comes second is making sure that the enemy does not get a second chance to come here. We recognize when men are evil and have evil intent to harm us. We don't forget what it is like to struggle for freedom and that it took many people to make that happen for this country and keep it that way for over 200 years. We've fought at home and on distant shores to preserve it.
When you all are talking up there on the hill calling people "liars" and "thieves" and referring to our men and women as akin to "Nazis" and guards from a totalitarian government without knowing what you're talking about and THEN it appears in the enemy's speeches and propaganda, we get a little upset down here.
We really don't get that thing about scoring points off of your political opponents at the expense of our men and women particularly when it scores points for our enemies as well. We don't want you not to voice your opinions, but we just wish, somewhere in the back of your minds, you would think about how you get heard around the world.
We have a tradition down here that doesn't seem to square with activities up on the hill. When we're under attack, we call it "circling the wagons".
Maybe you all should come down this way and learn a thing or two?
Probably not. Probably won't read this note either. After all, I'm not your actual constituent. I just can't believe that we are all so different from one end of the country to the next.
Some of these folks are acting like they are on college campuses back in the sixties still and holding fake impeachment trials against the president. I guess it makes them feel all nice and gooey inside when their little cheerleader protesters show up and tell them they're doing right. Or when some trumped up court in Turkey somewhere holds a "trial" and proclaims your fellow citizens guilty of war crimes. Honestly, that really didn't get much play time down here. Sure, the national cable networks had it on once or twice, but, when I asked people down here if they'd heard about it or what they thought, most people just rolled their eyes or said, "they did what?" in that tone that you know means they are wondering what everyone up on the hill is doing with their time and if this is really what you ought to be doing in the middle of a war.
That whole Viet Nam thing strikes a bad nerve out this way. Peace with honor isn't a phrase that gets much use out here. I tried to explain this before, as well, but I'll try again, not that I want to keep harping on certain themes, but this one keeps playing so I guess I need to address it again.
There were a lot of Democrats out here that didn't vote for Mr. Kerry. Lots of reasons, I'm sure, but from my folks generation (and my folks in particular), they didn't see Mr. Kerry as a hero that stood up to the government. Seems that some folks do remember that he was up on capitol hill making speeches against his fellow soldiers and meeting with the VC. They didn't see that as heroic. They saw him as a traitor. And, they didn't need any swift boat veterans' commercials to remind them.
I know that's harsh, but sometimes harsh things need to be said. I wonder if the folks up on Capitol Hill think about the legacy they are leaving?
This country has a fine legacy of patriots fighting against fascism and totalitarianism. We don't like tyrannts of any form. We don't really want to go looking for a fight, but when the fight comes to us, we want to take it to the mat.
I hope these folks figure it out sooner or later.
We need true patriots now, not back biting harbingers of doom.
I read about some squirrely guy,
Who claims, he just don't believe in fightin'.
An' I wonder just how long,
The rest of us can count on bein' free.
They love our milk an' honey,
But they preach about some other way of livin'.
When they're runnin' down my country, hoss,
They're walkin' on the fightin' side of me.
Yeah, walkin' on the fightin' side of me.
Runnin' down the way of life,
Our fightin' men have fought and died to keep.
If you don't love it, leave it:
Let this song I'm singin' be a warnin'.
If you're runnin' down my country, man,
You're walkin' on the fightin' side of me.
Friday, July 01, 2005
Reviewing Knights Under the Prophet's Banner: Part II: Bin Laden, Zawahiri, Zarqawi, and Iraq
When people think "Al Qaida" the first name that comes to mind is "Bin Laden". Ask anyone on the street if they know who Zawahiri is and find out what kind of answer you get. If you're lucky, someone might tell you that Zawahiri is the "number two" man in Al Qaida.
The truth is, Zawahiri and bin Laden share the organization, much like a corporation. He's the CEO and Bin Laden is the COO. They have nearly equal footing in AQ, but they have different responsibilities.
Bin Laden is the Face Man. In every organization, there is the man who is the "face" of the corporation. He might not be the guy making all the decisions, but he has the image that attracts others. He reperesents something that the company wants to present to the world.
A wealthy man that eschews his wealth and decides to become a "poor brother mujihadeen" living as they do, experiencing their hardships, submitting himself to Allah instead of the decadence of wealth. He was relatively young and energetic. He had education, but it did not stop him from believing in the "one true God and Mohammed is his only messenger". He was a hero of the Afghan wars.
The message you want to send to young men everywhere, poor, middle class or wealthy. Allah first, everything else will pass away.
Bin Laden had one or two other abilities that came in handy: management and organization skills. But, he lacked one crucial area and that was ideology. While he might "believe" and have studied Islam in school, he was and by no means is, a scholar that could formulate the "mission" of the company. While he had the ability to inspire men and organize resistance in guerilla operations, covert, long term and high profile operations such as the USS Cole, were not his long suit. His message was also limited to the Afghan movement and did not have "universal" appeal or a "universal" goal. The mission of a greater Islamic movement.
That's where Zawahiri comes in. He has street creds and can be considered one of the "elders" of the Islamic movement. Particularly when so many in Egypt were imprisoned or killed or even some have decided to try to go through the political process in Egypt to win legitimacy which Zawahiri later laments in this book and several others.
Fundamentalist sources maintain that "Al-Zawahiri's signing of the statement of 'The Global Front for Fighting Jews and Crusaders' in February 1998 was an ill-omened act for Al-Jihad Organization because it caused the rapid downfall of the most prominent leaders of the group who were residing abroad, and members of the group who were living in other Arab countries were extradited to Egypt. [snip]
The fundamentalist sources add that the US authorities' pursuit of the organization's leaders after the bombings of the Nairobi and Dar el Salam embassies in August 1998 led to the collapse of the organization's secret bases in Western capitals. Several of the organization's most prominent leaders were arrested in Albania and deported to Egypt in connection with the "returnees from Albania" case. What made the organization's ordeal worse was the unexpected appearance of prominent Al-Jihad figure Ahmad Salamah Mabruk, Al-Zawahiri's right-hand man, at the Huckstep Military Court north of Cairo, against whom an earlier death sentence had been passed in absentia. During the new trial Mabruk revealed damaging information about the group's leaders.
Knights Under The Prophet's Banner: Bin Laden's Physician
Al-Zawahiri never failed to comment on the positions adopted by other fundamentalist movements, such as the Islamic Group that was behind a strategic turning point when it adopted a historic decision in March 1999 to halt all military operations inside and outside Egypt, in response to a peace initiative that the Islamic Group's traditional leaders presented in July 1997.
Part One
Zawahiri also has connections throughout the Arab world with the extensive Muslim Brotherhood and Jihad Al Islam in Arab countries around the region. Bin Laden's connections were mostly based in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, where his family name was known.
Zawahiri had experience in creating "cells", the prefered method of operation in an Egypt with a hostile government and creating operations in such environments.
Zawahiri spent three years in an Egyptian prison on suspicion of conspiracy to committ the murder of Anwar al-Sadat in 1979. He was convicted in 1981 and released in 1983. In 1985 he volunteered to go to Peshawar, Pakistan as a physician to help treat the mujihadeen. It was there that he met bin Laden and is credited with organizing the Afghan Arab resistance.Part One.
There are many questions about whether Al Qaida was in Iraq prior to or directly after September 11, 2001, whether they had support from Saddam in Iraq, financially, materially or operationally. There are questions about whether Iraq, specifically Saddam, prior to the current insurgency had any thing to do with September 11, 2001. The 9/11 Commission dismissed claims that Saddam had any direct link to the Al Qaida plan for September 11, 2001. However, others have focused on the other links between terrorists in Iraq that were connected to Al Qaida, in particular Zarqawi, Ansar al-Islam, etc prior to the invasion and just after September 11. There are questions about whether Al Qaida or any such affiliates would work with Saddam Hussein due to ideological differences.
Aside from the current situation in Iraq with mujihadeen infiltrating from all over the region or any issues of Saddam and WMD or connections to terrorists, Iraq had a central role to play in the war on terror and its development to date.
In 1989, Zarqawi had traveled to Afghanistan to join the Mujahideen against the USSR. By then, the USSR had begun withdrawal of troops. Zarqawi spent time writing for an Islamist magazine, eventually returning to Jordan. In 1992 he was arrested and convicted of conspiring to overthrow the monarchy in Jordan. He spent seven years in a Jordanian prison.
In 1990, Saddam had invaded Kuwait. Bin Laden had offered to drive Saddam from Kuwait with the help of his Mujahideen that were recently unemployed as Russia had begun withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. Bin Laden was rejected for a number of reasons by the Saudi Royal family. Not the least of which was that they did not trust bin Laden as he had spent time in Saudi Arabia in the 1980's, while recruiting for the mujahideen, making speeches against the decadence of the royal family and had long considered them to have "used" the wahhabi tribes, bin Laden's family tribe, and then discarded them. The Saudi's feared that allowing the mujahideen on their soil would be tantamount to incubating their own civil war. Instead, they took the offer of the US and its coalition partners to come to Saudi Arabia, defend it and beat back Saddam.
Saddam was kicked out of Kuwait in 1991, but was not taken from power in Baghdad. What ensued was ten years of sanctions by the west against Iraq, resulting in the Oil for Food Scandal where Iraqis were deprived of medicine, food and basic services while Saddam and western corporations and buearocrats made off with millions, if not billions, of funds meant to provide for the Iraqi people.
That is known history. What is often forgotten is 1998.
In 1994, bin Laden's Saudi citizenship was withdrawn after he spent the three years, post Gulf War I, preaching in Saudi Arabia against the Regime. His organization was blamed for planning or supporting the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center in New York. The Saudis were under pressure from the US to take him into custody. The Saudis were reluctant since his family had close ties with the Royal family and had been instrumental in saving them from financial destruction in the 60's. He left Saudi Arabia for Sudan after his brother helped negotiate a deal with Prince Naif for house arrest.
If you have read here before, Prince Naif is still the current minister of security forces and the morality police in Saudi Arabia. He was also responsible for arresting a number of westerners in 2000 at the outbreak of Islamist terror attacks, accusing the westerners of bombing each other in a turf war over illegal alcohol. Prince Naif continued to hold these men even after additional bombings occured and Al Qaida took responsibility in blatant denial of insurgents within their midst.
Prince Naif also controls the ministry in charge of mosques and religious studies in Iraq that are largely responsible for preaching the wahhabist doctrine that supports recruits to organizations such as Al Qaida and its affiliates. There were even rumors that he may have allowed certain terrorist figures to escape in Saudi Arabia and negotiated "amnesty" for others.
In the meantime, Zawahiri had returned to Egypt for "personal reasons" largely thought to be due to an illness in his immediate family where he was arrested. Bin Laden paid for his bail in 1996 and they both left for Afghanistan where they began to plan the simultaneous bombings of the Kenyan and Nairobi US embassies. They are also thought to be involved in recruiting mujahideen for the KLK in Albania to fight the Serbs in Herzogovenia, Bosnia and Kosovo.
At the same time, the battle with Saddam over allowing UN inspectors into Iraq was ongoing. Reports were being circulated over the condition of the Iraqis due to the sanctions.
February 23, 1998, bin Laden issued the Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders. While many have focused on bin Laden's complaints against American forces in Saudi Arabia, several of his statements are in direct relations to Iraq:
If some people have in the past argued about the fact of the occupation, all the people of the Peninsula have now acknowledged it. The best proof of this is the Americans' continuing aggression against the Iraqi people using the Peninsula as a staging post, even though all its rulers are against their territories being used to that end, but they are helpless.
Second, despite the great devastation inflicted on the Iraqi people by the crusader-Zionist alliance, and despite the huge number of those killed, which has exceeded 1 million... despite all this, the Americans are once against trying to repeat the horrific massacres, as though they are not content with the protracted blockade imposed after the ferocious war or the fragmentation and devastation.
So here they come to annihilate what is left of this people and to humiliate their Muslim neighbors.
Third, if the Americans' aims behind these wars are religious and economic, the aim is also to serve the Jews' petty state and divert attention from its occupation of Jerusalem and murder of Muslims there. The best proof of this is their eagerness to destroy Iraq, the strongest neighboring Arab state, and their endeavor to fragment all the states of the region such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan into paper statelets and through their disunion and weakness to guarantee Israel's survival and the continuation of the brutal crusade occupation of the Peninsula.
In October 1998, President Cliinton signed into law the Iraq Liberation Act. In November 1998, UNSCOM returned and reported to the UN that Saddam was not complying with their requests for information and with destruction of his WMD. Clinton ordered the bombing of Iraq in response to this report.
It is theorized that bin Laden and Khalid Sheik Mohammed began to plan 9/11 in late 1998 or early 1999.
In 1999, Zarqawi was released from prison in Jordan. Some reports indicate that he may have traveled to Europe during that time. What is known is that he was again arrested in 2001 in Jordan for conspiring to blow up the Radisson Hotel in Amman. He was soon released and returned to Afghanistan. He set up a camp in Herat, Afghanistan which many believe was a rival to bin Laden. This is unproven, but may have some validation as their were rumors he disapproved of bin Laden's strategies. Based on his strategies in Iraq, the argument may have had to do with "purging" the group and supporters of non-Sunni/Wahhabi and possibly taking the war directly to the Afghani citizens. (He later gained permission to use this tactic in Iraq). He took part in the fighting in Afghanistan against the US invasion after the September 11 attacks. He was wounded there and eventually left.
There are differing claims about his where abouts during the intervening time. Some indicate that he travelled to Iran to reform his al Tawhid group before traveling to Iraq. Others indicate that he traveled to Baghdad and was cared for at the main Ba'athist hospital, reserved for important Ba'ath members, suggesting that Saddam's regime knew that he was inside Iraq and had given him tacit permission to come to and operate within the borders. Whichever is the case (or both), it is known that he was in Iraq and operating with Ansar Al Islam in 2002.
Ansar Al Islam was a conglomeration of several Islamist groups in the Kurdish north that came into being a month before the September 11 attacks. Some sources have indicated that Al Qaida had provided Ansar Al Islam with a grant of $300,000 to become operational and some 30 Al Qaida members had joined the group while additional fighters made their way through Iran from Afghanistan during the fighting there. While the leader of Ansar Al Islam insists that he did not have any links with Saddam Hussein, Kurdish sources indicate that Ansar Al Islam participated with Saddam in attacking the PUK in Kurdistan. [source; source; ME Forums]
Ansar al-Islam made headlines in September 2001 when it ambushed and killed forty-two PUK fighters. This alarmed the Kurds, who quickly established a conventional defensive front. It was soon understood that the Kurds were the target of a new jihadist war.
A wave of violence erupted in spring 2002, beginning with a politically motivated plot. Ansar al-Islam attempted to murder Barham Salih, a PUK leader. Five bodyguards and two attackers were killed in the ensuing gunfight.[20] Ansar al-Islam's tactics became bloodier, with the aim of inflicting as much damage as possible. In June, Ansar bombed a restaurant, injuring scores and killing a child.[21] In July, the group killed nine PUK fighters.[22] In a move reminiscent of the Taliban, the group destroyed Sufi shrines.[23] In December, Ansar launched a surprise attack after the PUK sent 1,500 soldiers home to celebrate the end of Ramadan.[24] According to Ansar's website, they killed 103 PUK members and wounded 117.[25] Gruesome pictures of the group's victims were posted on the Internet.[26]
Whichever was the case, after Zarqawi's arrival, Ansar Al Islam began to attack the Kurdish the year before the US invasion. What is certain is that the PUK believed that Saddam was supporting this group:
Some reports indicated that Saddam's regime helped smuggle weapons to the group from Afghanistan.[34] Kurdish explosives experts also claimed that TNT seized from Ansar al-Islam was produced by Baghdad's military and that arms arrived from areas controlled by Saddam.[35] Another link was said to be a man named Abu Wa'il,[36] reportedly an al-Qa‘ida operative on Saddam's payroll.[37]
CS Monitor reports April 2002:
New details about Ansar's contacts with Al Qaeda come from Rafed Ibrahim Fatah, an Iraqi Arab held by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Mr. Fatah agreed to be interviewed in an interrogation room at a PUK security complex in Sulaymaniyah.
Mr. Fatah says he fled from Baghdad to Iran in the mid-1980s, and was in a refugee camp on the outskirts of Tehran. There, in 1989, he says he met two Iraqi brothers who had returned from mujahideen centers in Pakistan explicitly to make contact with another Kurdish faction, the Islamic Movement of Kurdistan (IMK), "because there was jihad in Peshawar, [Pakistan], and they were fighting jihad here." The IMK is a broad political party that splintered in recent years; the breakaway extremists first created Jund al-Islam, then changed their name to Ansar.[snip]
Fatah says one of the brothers, Abu Ayoub, called himself a "military cadre working for Osama," and visited Iraqi Kurds in northern Iran for two weeks. Fatah made the trip with him, spending most of his time with Abu Ayoub's lower-ranking brother, Najjem, who he said did not attend the "big meetings."
Those ties continued in later years, Fatah says. An Iraqi Kurd called Abu Jaffar also visited from Pakistan twice a year during the 1990s, to recruit jihadis
The Al Qaeda-Kurdish ties appear to have grown closer by the summer of 2000, when Al Qaeda was well established, and Jund al-Islam was taking root in Kurdistan. Fatah was in Kandahar, Afghanistan, when he heard about a high-level delegation of Iraqi Kurdish militants. He says a friend introduced him to Abu Wa'el and two other Jund al-Islam leaders. They were staying in the guest house of a Taliban minister known for his support of Arab jihadists in Afghanistan, and were surprised when Fatah and his Iraqi friend showed up.
"They wanted to present themselves as a jihad group, and they were concentrating on Al Qaeda," Fatah says, recalling a conversation that took place in his presence. "They said they had already received money once from Abu Qatada, to elicit more support from Al Qaeda." Abu Qatada is a London-based sheikh who went underground earlier this year, and has been convicted in a Jordanian court of conspiring to attack US and Israeli interests.
In February 11, 2003, just prior to the March 2003 invasion, bin Laden issued a statement via al Jazeera:
Bin Laden has encouraged Islamist insurgents to work with “Socialist” groups(Baathists) and compared cooperation between Islamists and Baathists to Arab andPersian collaboration against theByzantineempirein the7thand 8thcenturies [source]
The actual statement:
Regardless of the removal or the survival of the socialist party or Saddam, Muslims in general and the Iraqis in particular must brace themselves for jihad against this unjust campaign and acquire ammunition and weapons. [snip]
Muslims' doctrine and banner should be clear in fighting for the sake of God. He who fights to raise the word of God will fight for God's sake.
Under these circumstances, there will be no harm if the interests of Muslims converge with the interests of the socialists in the fight against the crusaders, despite our belief in the infidelity of socialists.
The jurisdiction of the socialists and those rulers has fallen a long time ago.
Socialists are infidels wherever they are, whether they are in Baghdad or Aden. [source
Opponents and proponents of the war and links between Saddam and Al Qaida have used this statement to support their beliefs that either bin Laden would or would not make an alliance with Saddam.
It is clear by this statement and many others that bin Laden was pragmatic enough to decide that, in the battle against the greater enemy, the United States, while holding to his basic doctrine of only fighting for Allah, it was still permissable to make alliances with and fight with the Socialists. By his statements, he believed that they were "fallen a long time ago" or basically no threat to the future Islamic state that he invisioned.
In February 2004, Zarqawi issued a letter to bin Laden regarding the situation in Iraq and his plans. Shortly after that, it was announced that Zarqawis al Tawhid group had formerly changed its name to Al Qaida in the Land of the Two Rivers in Iraq or Al Qaida in Iraq for short.
