Egypt and Democracy: Rose Colored Liberation Glasses

Update at bottom ie Wael Ghonim on Qaradawi...

As I have been trying to say to my liberal Egyptian friends, I think their rose colored liberation glasses are getting in the way of seeing their political reality clearly.

The liberals keep telling the west that it is their fears (with a healthy dose of Mubarek/NDP propaganda) that makes us see the Muslim Brotherhood as a powerful political entity in Egypt. When a massive "celebration march" is led in prayer by Yusuf Qaradawi, the Egyptian liberals better believe that the MB has got plenty of mojo left in them.

Oh...and the Egyptian military is allowing Iranian warships through the Suez Canal.

Um...pardon me, but who is pushing that button?

Yes, I support my liberal friends in Egypt getting freedom and democracy with the full knowledge that the MB is going to be part of this deal, but sometimes I feel like they are so busy patting themselves on the back and cheering on the other region wide revolutions that they are losing sight of their own situation. I don't mean that the military is still in control, I mean who is positioning themselves for leadership in the New Egypt.

I hope that I am wrong, but acting like the problem doesn't exist is the worse than having a healthy dose of worry. It is seriously close to acting like that hairy growth on your chin is just a beauty mark.

Update:
And Wael Ghonim tweeted about 1:10pm CST 9pm Egypt

I loved Sheikh Qaradawi Khutbah today. Was truly inspired when he said: Today I'm going to address both Muslims and Christians. Respect!

This is what Wael Ghonim got out of Qaradawi's presence in Tahrir square and his speech. I can't decide who they are trying to propagandize: us or themselves. They are just so excited about "Egyptian Unity" that they forget that not everyone has the same idea about what "freedom" means.

I keep seeing these posts about the Muslim Brotherhood said they are not going to (insert your worst fears here - last report says they are not going to pressure govt to change stance towards Israeli treaty while at the same time they are letting Iranian warships through the Suez to go to Syria. Hellllooooo?). Um...no, they aren't because the MB already said they aren't going to establish themselves as a political party known as the MB. They are going to create a separate political entity without religion as its main charter, but whose candidates are going to work towards MB agenda none the less. Those candidates will simply explain they are doing as their constituents want, not the MB.

Oh...and too my liberal Egyptian friends who keep saying the MB is not a major political force, please read your own news papers, allegedly all free now from government control:

The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's best-organized political force,

What was that? The sound of crickets from the Liberal Egyptian blogosphere.

Summary only...

Egypt and Democracy: Political Realities and Power Brokers

The Problem With Egypt's Constitution

As I wrote here, the problem's with Egypt's constitution and attempting to pull together a truly representative government through any part of its lengthy laws and regulations is not only difficult, but dangerous for any group that will not have an immediate rise to majority power. In other words, minorities or minority parties will be in danger of suffering the same fate under any newly elected government that they did under the Mubarek/NDP regime because any party with enough power in the assembly (parliament) or who takes important posts like the presidency and prime minster and gets to appoint people to ministries and commissions will have the same power as the NDP once had to exclude rivals. Re-affirming many observers' fears that Egypt will be the same as before, but with some other despotic group in power.

The control over the electoral process is firmly in the hands of any majority party that comes to power. The Electoral Commission and over seeing voting is under the direct power of the Interior Ministry, not organized as a separate, independent commission focused on fair and accurate elections. The Interior Minister is appointed by the president.

Candidates and parties wishing to establish themselves as "official" to participate in the elections have to be vetted by the Interior Ministry's security directorate. They must also be vetted by a judicial panel appointed by the Ministry (ie, appointed by whoever is in power) and, finally, must be vetted by the People's Assembly.

In the past, all of those organizations were controlled by the NDP who notably suppressed anybody and any group they didn't like through these organizations and panels. Even though there were rules that allegedly governed the process and the constitution stated that every Egyptian had the right to free political association, to stand for elections and vote, everywhere within the subsequent "acts" passed were vague "loop holes" that allowed any of these organizations to disqualify candidates and parties on the least of reasons. The most egregious vagaries being "dismissed for disgraceful reasons" from a government post or having some criminal record above and beyond the few felonies outlined (fraud, murder, theft, etc). Since people who talked bad about Mubarek, the NDP or Egyptian government in general could be dismissed from their posts or arrested for crimes against the state, those rules equate to disenfranchising large swaths of society.

At the very least, for Egypt to even begin to have a free and fair election, the Electoral Commission would have to be stood up as a separate, non-partisan organization with directors chosen at the outset from some board consisting of representatives from each of the major groups involved in the "revolution" and then through a majority approval by any newly elected assembly. Acts numbered 38, 73 and 96 would have to be gutted or, for the best of free elections, repealed and thrown out all together for one new amendment that simplified the process, took the power to establish candidates out of the Interior Ministery's and People's Assembly's hands and outline the very few and specific reasons a person or party could be disqualified.

The rules governing funding would have to be examined and re-established through the EC as well as some form of oversight at the ballot box by selected members of each party participating in the election. Equal oversight may have to be enforced by the military to insure against any other party committing voter intimidation, fraud or other form of disenfranchisement.

Otherwise, any freedom the Egyptians believe they achieved through the Jan25 revolution will be immediately lost to whoever has the ability to control the process and achieves any real majority in the elections. Even if most of the necessary changes are achieved, liberal Egypt is still in danger politically, socially and economically since the parties most likely to win majorities are not particularly liberal and are in each others' pockets.

Muslim Brotherhood 25 -30%

In a previous post from an interview with the head of the MB in Egypt, the reporter noted that the Muslim Brotherhood only had 10% of the vote. The spokesman said that the elections were rigged and that, if they had a chance to run in fair elections he expected they would get a much wider swath of votes. Somewhere in the vicinity of 30-38%.

In the 2005 elections, when Mubarek was pressured to let off the political brakes, the MB "independent" candidates won 88 seats, or 20% of parliament. In 2010 there were severe election abuses, intimidation, fraud and restrictions with the MB only achieving one (1) seat. Neither of these seems to be an actual representation of the MB's potential power.

Sandmonkey, Mahmoud Salem, liberal Egyptian blogger, puts them more at 20%. He says that, out of 80 million Egyptians, the MB has maybe 4million members, supporters and sympathizers. The math is off. That puts them at only 5%. Where does the rest of these numbers come from?

The MB has lost direct membership largely to various splinter groups, towards more liberal movements and even, sadly, to more fundamentalist groups. These splinter groups consist of Muslim youth and women's organizations who have taken on the various issues pertaining to those groups. That does not mean that those organizations would not vote for an MB backed candidate when presented who say they are going to address those issues. Most importantly, these sub-organizations will likely fall in line on at least the first few election cycles in order to protect their over all interests. Muslim Youth and Women's groups will be more inclined to pressure their own established candidates than to look outside of the box.

Another issue that might or might not be taken into account is that city/suburban dwellers of large populations tend to have blinders on when it comes to rural populations and their voting tendencies. As the liberal/democrats in the US have discovered on more than one occasion, those populations tend to be more conservative. Of particular interest would be the agricultural populations spread along the Nile and those populations in the Sinai or out in the "desert" (fly over country as we say in the US). Enough to give any "conservative" block in parliament an edge. Liberal and socialist voters/parties would do well to remember that in any calculation of potential power.

Even in the city, there are large swaths of conservatives among the young and old who are likely to be moved to vote based on those social and faith based values (in the United States they are referred to as Values Voters). These values are most prominent when a community is experiencing turbulent times. Crime, corruption and social ills they consider the fault of liberalization can push even moderate conservatives to swing to the "right".

The Muslim Brotherhood is the most organized, the best funded, has established media/communications (tv, newspapers, mosques), has out reach in the communities via charities and education programs and has the political experience of backing "independent" candidates. Not to mention an established political agenda. They are and will be the party to beat in any future elections.

Further, other parties such as a socialist labor party who gets their support from the ever pervasive labor unions, will not be able to count on all of their members voting in line with their union. Values sometimes over turn economic concerns in times of crisis. The Brotherhood will likely be able to peel off any number of voters from this organization and any other group or party who have enjoyed membership based on opposing the regime.

The MB says that it is not going to put any candidates up as "Muslim Brotherhood", but recent reports suggest that they are planning to create a separate political party that will have MB backing. This is very politically savvy of the MB. Whether "independents" or part of some new party with roots in the MB, having separate politicos would let them have their cake and eat it, too.

In short, independents or separate political party would allow them to present a less threatening face and divide political participation in any government, specifically democracy, from their religious/charter agenda. The first item on the agenda is the establishment of an Islamic state in Egypt. Their participation in secular politics has been one of the major divisions within their own organization as well as with other Islamic groups who see democracy and other forms of secular government as a form of idolatry. This will allow the MB to remain a religious organization with contact/support to other organizations while participating in elections.

Further, the establishment of independents or a separate political party will allow the MB to continue to collect funds from outside donors (donors outside of the country; specifically, Saudi Arabia or remittances from MB members in the US, Europe, etc) that might otherwise fall under scrutiny from any election board that would monitor funds. This would allow them to funnel those funds into any media or outreach programs they control, extolling whatever agenda the MB supported independent or other party candidate might be running on without providing direct material support. This gives them unprecedented power that the other parties are going to be hard pressed to match.

With one final note: there are at least three to four other "minor" Islamic parties such as Hizb ut-Tahrir or the Umma Party that may be swayed to support MB agenda or party members or who, if elected to a seat, could be added to any conservative, Islamic block in the parliament. The MB could lose some votes if their candidates fail to engage on agenda items related to women and the "youth" demand.

As to the MB's lack of presidential aspirations, Mahmoud Salem makes a point that they likely do not want to have any part of "leadership" when the country is in a mess and short of an all powerful "savior" figure who can pull out any miracles, the long and rugged road would be full of giant pot holes and veritable canyons that could weaken any party who takes that position as they will be blamed for anything that does not go right during this transition to representative government.

Second, as with other revolutions against governments where the power has been concentrated into a single executive's hands and the givens of mid-east parliaments, the new constitution is unlikely to give any president any real power. At most, the president will likely be the "lead negotiator" with executive power being concentrated in the hands of a prime minister and cabinet beholden to and selected by whatever political party holds the power in parliament.

It will be very surprising if the MB does not take at least 125 to 150 seats in the parliament through either directly supported "Independents" or other affiliates such as physicians or lawyers belonging to organizations with links to the MB such as the Arab Doctor's Union or similar Lawyer's Union.

Labor Unions/Socialists 25 - 30%

In the uprising of Jan 25, one of the most powerful and organized groups were the socialists and unions. In fact, it was the socialist April 6 Youth that provided the ground work for the revolution outside of facebook and twitter. These groups scouted protest areas, distributed fliers and generally went through neighborhoods calling down the poor en masse with slogans about food and pay. Of interest was a report that indicated this group had partnered with the MB including organizing in mosques friendly to the MB. As one MB youth group leader noted, it was not an unusual association. The MB youth had frequently called on the socialist groups like April 6 to stand with them in demonstrations for political freedom and human rights.

Further, it was the MB's Arab Doctors Union that helped set up the first clinics to treat protesters and other MB members who waded to the barricades to establish a defense system for the square. This should be a surprise to no one as the MB has had plenty of practice in violent clashes and demonstrations with the Egyptian authorities during previous elections.

April 6 Movement does not count itself a political party. It is organized, has leadership and a distinct network, but it is open to anyone regardless of other political association, who supports their values for free expression and political participation. A cohort of this movement has centered its support around El Baradei who has yet to actually establish a "political party" in the generally accepted sense. However, this group may be able to assemble a party with a grass roots network and funding in quick order. It's problem will be members who break off and move towards the parties most likely to represent their other agenda concerns post departure of the NDP and Mubarek.

It is the labor unions that will represent the most power in this group. While the general Jan 25 protests were large and threatening to destabilize the regime, the real "tipping power" came when the labor unions around the country began to strike. Port technicians, mill workers, hospital workers, every union began to converge on the streets or stage sit ins. These unions did not join until the 16th day of the protest. When they did, they were quick to establish themselves as a separate power with a their own agenda for striking during the general protests.

They continue even now staging protests and general strikes. Their demands are higher wages, health care and housing among several. These continued strikes are to show that not only did they have the final power in the revolution, they are a powerful entity of their own and will be a force to reckon with in the political reality of New Egypt.

It is estimated there were 23 trade unions enrolling 27% of Egypt's 20 million plus work force. That does not include an estimated 1million in child labor. Nor does it include any groups of workers who might have been prohibited in organizing a union or participating in politics outside of the NDP such as police officers and other government workers.

There are several parties that might represent the labor unions. One such party that could find itself thrust back into a leadership role is the National Progressive Unionist Party or Taggamu. This group is largely affiliated with the labor unions in Egypt, but was previously considered the "loyal opposition" or the Mubarek regime. It is difficult to imagine how they can come out of that without the leadership drastically changing and a new reform agenda that takes its demands directly from the socialist unions.

They do have the advantage of already being in place, organized and having their own official newspaper as well as being an established "opposition." Further, they have a platform that is based on protecting laborers and workers in the service industry. Tourism being one of the drivers of Egypt's economy, service workers could have a more power in the sway of the union labor party by dent of economic impact alone. That is if any number of its members don't decide that they are better represented by the conservative MB candidates.

Other socialist/labor leaning parties may see a dramatic boost as members now see an opportunity to have their concerns better represented by someone other than the NPUP that still has its roots in the 1952 socialist revolution and some consider association with the ousted NDP regime. In any case, any labor party will have similar advantages as the MB in establishing a powerful political party. With a large membership that is "captive" based on requirements for people to join or be refused work, they are organized, have distinct leadership and access to funds or fund raising within its already established socio-political niche.

The labor unions also have an established news paper, magazines and a communication network through union "shop bosses" and meetings that will be able to easily transmit the party agenda and support for labor candidates.

The Future Muslim Brotherhood and Labor Power House in Parliament

What we are likely to see is that the cooperation of the Labor Unions and the MB will continue in the short run when they achieve the parliament. Social and economic equality with better health care are ideas easily supported through the MB's agenda. Likewise, the MB would use these agenda items as leverage to get the labor parties' support for any of their own specific concerns such as strengthening sharia laws, more support for Hamas or Gaza and more aggressive stance against Israel. At least wherever those conservative agenda items do not interfere with or support any labor issues.

With potential control of the parliament from 50 to 60% between these two parties, any liberal or other minority groups are going to find themselves in a corner, trying to come up with an amalgamation of their ideas that could be supported by their constituents and constantly compromising with each other and the major power brokers. Worse, they may find themselves forced in alliance with the new, reform NDP party (potentially under some new name or simply with the word "reform" added) in order to stave off the worst effects of MB/labor majority parliament. A possible necessity when voting in parliament or presenting bills, but a political nightmare that could be used against them in the next elections.

Real liberal Egyptians are going to find themselves pushed back for at least the short term unless they can pull off a veritable miracle in organization, funding, leadership and communication. They may already have parts of the organization and communication in place. At least among themselves. Getting a greater part of the non-internet Egyptian polity to hear about and buy into their ideas is going to be a different story. Their choices for funding are going to equate to business, business and business that will likely put them at odds with their labor union opponents and political base.

Without a doubt, any liberal party hoping to obtain some kind of political power is going to have to come up with their own leading agenda item that could rally any form of public support. For the liberals, that one agenda item, already co-oped by the labor unions, is going to be the economy. How they plan to improve that and whether anyone is buying it will another story.

Next: Communists, Coptics, Liberals and A Reformed NDP

Summary only...

Egypt and Democracy: The Problem With Egypt's Constitution

Well, the best way to get any information these days isn't necessarily blogs, but twitters, so I am going to work with what I've been provided.

First, there is the difficulty of following very liberal Egyptian bloggers/tweeters who have their own hopes and dreams. Most of them optimistic even as they voice concerns about the military being in charge of the interim government and who they have invited to the constitution committee.

Second, to see past our own fears and hopes. American media and analysis is torn between those touting the second Iranian coming in Egypt and those who echo our liberal Egyptian bloggers' hopes that the MB, for instance, has little support and Egypt is really quite liberal (compared to Saudi Arabia and Iran, yes; to the United States or other European nations, no).

Then there are all the usual bogeymen in the ME at play with the addition, that Sandmonkey tweeted about, the military being stretched quite thin doing police work as well as border patrol/control. The Egyptians are going to have to understand those realities when it comes to tourists coming back. Security is going to be a tad bit suspect until proven otherwise.

Egypt's parliament is very likely to look something like this:

25 - 30% Muslim Brotherhood (Mostly disguised as "Independents"; discuss later)
25 - 30% Socialist/Labour Parties (Not NDP, include hardcore left, Taggamu, etc)
15 - 20% Former NDP (Under some other name/party; discuss later)
15 - 20% Liberal/Communist parties (Liberals=amalgam of American like Dem/Repub;
include some NDP reformists/rejectionists; Communists speak for themselves)
5 - 10% Variable of any of the above including some portion of Coptic Christians.

Looking at the situation as it is, some have voiced serious concerns about the make up of the constitutional amendment committee that has some very serious implications as to who the military believes has power and what the constitutional issues might be:

More than 60 women's and community groups condemned the panel, saying it is an all-male group that "excludes half of society."

"This casts doubt on the future of democratic transformation in Egypt after the revolution, and raises questions about ... whether the revolution was seeking to free the whole society or only certain segments," the statement said.

More than that, these legal experts draw more from the "old school" and the "MB" associated lawyers' union. How exactly is this group going to insure freedom of expression, freedom of religion, equal rights for women, protection of children (ie, child labor laws), the right to free association (ie, unions if they want them and they are a big deal in Egypt), etc, etc, etc?

The Supreme Council, as per the complaints, has not been very open about how the selection of these so called legal experts occurred. What was the criteria?

Sandmonkey suggested via twitter that the Council was meeting with mostly MB, labour unions, Coptic Christians, etc, because they represent the most vocal and troublesome aspects of the potential new Egypt and they want to get them out of the way or settled in some manner so Egypt can go on. The military, with its numerous building projects, European type extravagant malls and tourist destinations under its direct ownership, would be interested in getting Egypt back to "normal" as quickly as possible.

This makes El Baradei's concerns about how they are going about the constitutional adjustments very legitimate and should concern the US and any liberal Egyptians. Fast isn't better. Open is better. The Supreme Military Council would do better to have more press conferences to let people know exactly what is happening and this constitutional committee would be better off if it was out in the open, known membership and ideological/party affiliations.

That is likely why the people continue to protest. They do not trust the process and it is hard to blame them.

From inside and out, if the constitution is much more open, I would predict the above outcome (more to come on that). One of the major obstacles that will have to be overcome is the current constitutional restrictions on who can run and what committee or individuals have the power to disenfranchise any candidate or party.

The list of restrictions and hurdles a candidate must clear before being accepted to run under the current constitution is astounding. Some of them are simple and hark back to Jim Crow laws in the US, obviously meant to exclude the poor and uneducated. For instance, "must be able to read and write". While that seems legitimate to insure that any member could legitimately comprehend and participate in the legislative process, the purpose of exclusion is obvious when we understand that 30% of Egypt's population is illiterate or "under educated". Add in "poor" and we have a giant swath of society that is disenfranchised. At least from becoming a representative in parliament.

They must submit reams of documents to the "security directorate", obviously to weed out any potential undesirables, have their application reviewed by a judge who can disqualify them on various grounds including not doing compulsory service in the military or having a legal waiver there of, review for a criminal record (not that unusual, but depends on if you live in a police state where once upon a time saying "Mubarek sucks" could get you a police record) by judges who owed their allegiance to the once ruling NDP.

Then there is the necessity of presenting a 1000 Egyptian pound "security" to the security directorate (sounds like an opportunity for bribery) that could also be used to exclude any political potential. One thousand Egyptian pounds is equal to appx. $172 US dollars. Considering the recent report that most Egyptians live on less than $2 US dollars a day, that excludes a healthy number of potential candidates without wealthy and powerful backers.

Of course, US elections are often won by the party/candidate with the most money, but that does not exclude anyone from running. They simply won't get very much media coverage.

Other issues that are likely to need attention are that the Interior Ministry over sees the elections by overseeing the electoral commission and alleged "independent judiciary". Since the IM has been under the control of the NDP and the minister is selected by the president, that has put voting fraud on the top of everyone's list. In fact, this power could be abused by any political group who wins the parliament and prime minister or presidential post (who ever in the future will hold the power to select ministers).

In short, the candidate rules for running for parliament or any other office need to be drastically overhauled. It is very exclusionary and is rife with rules and regulations that practically beg for corruption and fraud.

What the constitutional process for elections needs is simplification. Some language in the electoral rules as set out by Act No. 73 needs serious review. For instance, the restriction of a candidate because they were dismissed from a government job for "disgraceful reasons". Do those include being disrespectful to the once supreme leader of Egypt, cursing the NDP, the regime in general or not being a member of the selected political party? That rule also begs to be abused.

Then there is a rule that says voters can only register and vote once. That's great, but Article 11 goes on to say they can register in their home domicile or where they work, have major interests, where their family is from, etc, etc, etc. Based on our own problems with registration and verifying voter eligibility, this seems seriously to lend to voter fraud. In fact, one of the major concerns of 2005 and 2010 was the NDP stuffing the ballot boxes by having the individuals go from district to district in major population areas to vote more than once.

Another interesting rule is that the governor of any governate/district can order election "propaganda" to be removed, at the candidates expense, if it violates some rules listed some place else. Governors who are appointed by the president. Who is deciding what electioneering material violates the rules? This seems likely to turn into a party turf war where various parties, especially the one that wants to remain in control, could tear down any political advertisements with little oversight.

In reality, this list could go on and on and on. That is the current problem. Everyone wants elections now! They want a new constitution or amendments now! It is easier said than done. Egypt's electoral process is so full of holes and various rules that could be easily abused that it is difficult to see how anyone could believe they actually had a free and fair election if it was held in the next 6 months, much less the next 60 days as some have demanded.

Egypt's People's Assembly

How the seats shake out would first depend on whether there are any changes to parliamentary districts/constituencies and whether the election of representatives changes from "one winner" to a party list seating of representatives. Something that has been pushed for in the past by various political parties. Generally those who are seriously out of power by the last ruling party, the NDP and are looking for a more "representative" government.

The difference between "one winner" system and the "party list" are best represented by two countries with parliaments. England would be the best representation of the "one winner" representative elections. Similar to US congressional seating, each party puts up a candidate in the individual district/constituency for each of the available seats. The voters go to the ballot box and the person with the most votes wins that constituency/seat. Thus, if there are two seats in the district, one could be conceivably won by a liberal and other by the Labour party (or whatever party).

The party list system would be best represented by recent experience in Iraq. In this system, each party puts up a list of candidates to be seated. Each district votes with each individual voting for a party instead of a candidate. The seats are apportioned first based on the percentage of votes each party gets. Example:

Four seats in the constituency

Six parties

Party A gets forty percent of the votes; Party B gets 20%; Party C gets 20%; Parties D, E, and F gets 5% respectively

Party A would get two seats; Party B gets one, Party C gets one and the others are left out in the cold

Usually, there are certain requirements as to the make up of the candidates. For instance, in Iraq the parties had to have at least 25% women and, depending on how many seats they took in the elections, 25% of the seats would have to be given to women. Thus, if Party A won an over all 100 seats out of 250, they would have to seat 25 women. The rest of the seats would be given to candidates on the party list in descending order. Therefore, the top 75 on the list would be seated and anyone after that is out of luck as would be any voter who wanted some other candidate.

Unfortunately, in this scenario, staying in a parliament seat and at the top of the list has a lot less to do with what the individual constituency wants or needs and a lot more to do with party politics and agenda.

In Egypt, the assembly currently has 222 constituencies. Each constituency has 2 seats. The current constitution requires that one seat is reserved for a "professional" while the other is reserved for "laborer/agricultural worker". In regards to the above mentioned "Jim Crow" law that states the person must be able to read and write in a country with 30% illiteracy, that seems to leave the second seat only open to likely wealthy farmers or some form of manager from an industry although Article II of Act No. 38 says that a "laborer" must be enrolled in one of the trade unions. Trade unions who must be approved by the centrally controlled government and whose candidates must be first vetted by that government.

How that protects representation for laborers from any industry is difficult to comprehend. Especially in a country whose socialist bent was originally established for the protection of the laborers. Go figure.

Egypt's system is a "one winner" system. Run offs occur when any individual candidate does not achieve a clear majority over the other candidates. A run off election would consist of the top four candidates competing for the available votes in the district. The candidate with the most votes wins.

The question is whether the current system will remain in place along with any recent laws passed that affected the number of seats. For instance, a recent law created 64 seats for women. While many women's organizations were excited by the addition, the control of parliament by the NDP made that move seem less than liberal or representative.

Another issue that will need to be addressed in the electoral/constitution reform will be the rule that anyone running for parliament must be 30 years or older. Since 2/3 of the population of Egypt is 30 yrs old or younger, this makes an interesting conundrum considering the age of the revolutionaries and "youth movements" involved who were demanding equal representation.

Other issues that make the parliament unrepresentative is that the president has the right to appoint ten members of parliament according to Act No. 38. This was allegedly used to insure minorities received representation in the parliament, but seems more likely to have been used to stack parliament with even more politicos who were dependent on the president's good will for their existence.

Anyone interested in running for parliament would have to really love Article 5.6:

He shall not have been deprived of his membership by a decision of the People’s
Assembly or the Shura Council due to the loss of trust or repute, or breach of the
duties of his membership, according to the provisions of Article 96 of the
Constitution.

There are those words again. Thus, all the power for selection and election of candidates reverts back to a governing body who has every reason to protect their position by disallowing candidates through very generic language.

What remains constant is that the apparatus of selecting candidates and elections seems extraordinarily bent towards the party in power at any given time. That means that one party, like the NDP, could obtain the majority and perpetrate their rule in perpetuity by simply following the laws that they themselves set up.

That is what Egypt has already experienced. That is what Egypt will experience if it does not review every letter of the law and reform it or throw the constitution out completely and start over again. Unfortunately, they don't appear to have time to make these decisions and may not get the time based on continuing conditions in the streets.

Nobody ever said that democracy was easy. It 's dictatorships that generally disregard the rules or make them up as they go along. The rest of Egypt is going to have to work hard for patience and lots of comprehension.

One of the things that either the transitional committee or an ad hoc group could do is go through the Egyptian constitution article by article along with any amendments or relative "acts", invite comment and expect to have members of this so called constitutional committee talk about what they see and what they hope to do through whatever media sources available.

It is time for people to know what their government looks like, what they hope it will look like and how long the process may be to get there if they don't want another president elected one time and one time only in the next two decades.

Summary only...

Iran Protests: 25Bahman/Feb14

Can't stay up to blog this so pointing to most reasonably honest blog reporting and various tweet patterns.

UPdate 5:30 pm...twitter back. not sure what happened. reports are very sketchy.

First picture up at Tehran bureau for pbs. Actually looks like a decent crowd marching, but they are silent. No chanting or signs. Probably don't want to give any provocation until in a larger group or may be simply "silent protest". Reports too thin from the ground. Looks like rally is spread out all over the place. Either unable to coalesce due to security forces blocking roads and transportation or because that was the plan.


Update appx 5pm Iran

Something happened to twitter. no pages loading. PBS page still up.

Last reports to not look good for Iran protests. From what I can see, sans good pictures and the way the videos are being shot, Ghonim's "psychology of fear" is at play. People fear the regime. Probably because they are able to mobilize 300 police for every 100 protesters. Lots of reports of tear gas and police beatings begin (as I said, let the head bashing begin).

PBS.ORG Tehran Bureau Live blog (Check this, they are taking twitter reports as well, video is extremely disappointing, very low turn out or not taken at the most interesting places, probably because sending it out internet is impossible at this time)

In short: Tehran University and surrounding shops closed. Riot police are everywhere (don't believe the regime is going to be caught off guard, plus the protesters posted their routes on twitter; not sure they have planned like Egyptians to publish some routes and hold others secret).

"thousands" march, but no confirmed images as yet. All coming from different directions. At least one line of the protest has been dispersed. Leader of opposition and wife have been detained at their house by security forces, unable to leave.

Allegedly, the police were told not to interfere, but stationed in front of stores and gas stations. Only to become "violent" if protesters become violent. Expect somebody to interpret something as violent and head bashing to begin. Basij and Republican Guard staying in background, stationed in parking lots and alleys. One group reports that motorcycle riding "black turtlenecks" (probably reference to Basij who use bikes as their tool and dress in black) going to one of the squares. Stand by for head bashing to commence.

While several organizations have print reports, do not see it on front page of yahoo. Tracking.

Reports of police using tear gas, metro buses and subways are closed to prevent people from reaching areas. Internet, SMS and phone service cut.

Summary only...

Th Women of Tahrir Square: Burqa's and Blue Jeans

Not to missed. It is almost twenty minutes long, but very informative.

Direct link: The Women of Tahrir Square


Heba Morayef: Don't romanticize the army of Egypt. (Basically, they are in power and they have not proven themselves in the arena of democratic change. They have all the power)

Adhaf Souief: It (the revolution) was brilliant. It was the young people who have been Americanized, with their boxers sticking out of the top of their jeans, and look what they done. They done what we could not do for thirty years. It's brilliant.

Summary only...

Muslim Brotherhood v. Al Qaeda and an Interview With MB Leader

An extremely interesting report contrasting the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda including outlining on the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda's break, Hamas in the Gaza v. Islamist offshoots of Al Qaeda.

Pointing this out is not in the interest of showing either of these groups as "secular" or not dangerous to the United States, Israel and the region. It is rather to put some light on divisions that should be and could be exploited. Particularly in the light of the new reality in Egypt. If our primary goal is the elimination of Al Qaeda and the diminishing of extremist ideology.

See my previous post on "The One Good Thing About the Muslim Brotherhood"

An important aspect to remember is that, in Egypt, when the Brotherhood gets a piece of the pie, they will have several counters (though, it seems the Brotherhood is lying low per some insiders). One, the Egyptian army who has lots of interests they won't easily surrender to Islamic rule. Two, they will have share power with numerous "leftist" parties who are largely socialist and have a big chunk of support through labor unions. Three, when they own a piece of the pie (as they have been working towards) they will have something to lose.

Another interesting video interview with the head of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. He side steps lots of questions about establishing an Islamic state in Egypt. Says they are for a civil society and democracy. That is what the people of Egypt want. But, if a majority of people want Sharia as a basis of law by a majority, then it must abide by it. They say that they will not forsake their faith. Said they did not use their banners to lead the revolution because they were not the only ones, but they were part of it (and they were, stand by).

Do not seek a post or job in the government. Backing El Baradei. Will work with anyone of anyone religion or any political party who has the main value "freedom". Says no one with any "responsibility" has said that the treaty with Israel should be abrogated. Then goes on to harangue Israel and their aggressions. The solution should be "justice". UN should implement UN resolution.

Anchor points out that the MB candidates only had ten percent votes. He said that the elections were rigged. He expects that if they get a chance to run in free elections they would get 30% to 38% of votes (actually, this is pretty close to my estimation coming soon on political make up). However, he supports free practice of religion. On the other hand, his prediction of getting over 30% of the vote kind of contradicts the whole "we don't seek post or job in new government".

The revolution was all people. Women with veils, women without veils, etc. Revolution of the people (sort of suggesting that they understand they do not represent a majority; goes along with comments by anchor about losing membership and splintering of party that he denies).

Other thoughts coming on the possible political make up of the New Egypt.

Summary only...

Wael Ghonim Interview 60 Minutes

Wael Ghonim gave an interview with 60 Minutes

Important points from anchor: 2/3 of population 30 and under, mostly educated, mostly unemployed. Out maneuvered regime through social media.



Some comments by Ghonim:

Thanks, thanks, thanks to the regime. If they had not kept oppressing and oppressing. They shut down facebook. So, instead of allowing people to read information and share ideas, they forced them to go to the streets. They told the people that they were scared "like hell" of the revolution.

We are going to win because our tears come from our hearts. We are going to win because we have a dream (channeling MLK?) and if anyone stands up in front of it, we are ready to die for our dream.

The only thing that keeps people from acting is the psychological barrier of fear. When that barrier is broken, revolution can happen.

Kahlid Said - Eternal Happiness (We are all Khalid Said)

Khalid Said was beaten to death by the Egyptian police after he video taped a drug bust where the police took the drugs and money for themselves. He posted it on the internet, probably from the internet cafe that he was half owner of (information from another report).

(Per anchor, contrary to Malcolm Gladwell's idea that high risk activism requires personal, face to face, deep rooted friendship, most of the organizers never met, that twitter and facebook could not replace those roots, Ghonim says that most of the organizers never met. However, in this report, it says that some of the ground organizers did meet, did scout out protest locations and did hand out fliers. More on that later.)

Ghonim says that he was hit. Not by officers, but by simple "soldiers" (I translate that to policeman or security service non-ranking members). He forgives them. They thought that they were the good guys and that he was destabilizing Egypt.

Why did they let him go? Ask Obama, probably. Google also did a massive PR campaign.

Dear Western Governments, you have been supporting the regime that has been oppressing Egyptians for 30 years. We don't need you now. (Ironic, considering the previous comment)

He wants to go back to work at Google, not go into politics, but his life has changed. (For instance, per this twitter, Ghonim and eight others -unidentified - met with two generals to discuss the transition process - based on other twitters, looks like they are going to release "secret files" or as Ghonim says in the interviews "black files" of the regime on people as well as provided list of detainees they expect to be released-standby for update)

Not interested in revenge (kissed the officers who arrested him when released - the kiss of peace). Want the money stolen from Egyptians. People eating from trash, that was their money.

Anchor asks if they really think they can sustain the feelings from Feb 11, the demand for democracy, to create the foundations of Egypt. Ghonim-"That is our responsibility."
They are meeting constantly to come up with ideas and organize to keep the momentum going. Everything they worked to gain need to be capitalized on right now.

All dictators should be freaking out right now.

Summary only...

Let Freedom Ring!

Watching Egypt's new Independence Day! Live on Al Jazeera, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, Telegraph in UK, you name it, everybody is playing it.

Arab voices on Egypt

Well, President Bush, you broke it, now the Egyptians own it!

Maybe I should have said, Let Freedom Reign!

Freedom is a Fire in the Minds of Men - George W. Bush, 2005 Inauguration Address

“Those who deny freedom to others deserve it not for themselves; and, under the rule of a just God, cannot long retain it.” - Abraham Lincoln


Everywhere that freedom stirs, let tyrants fear. - George W. Bush

Above all, we must realize that no arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. It is a weapon our adversaries in today's world do not have. - Ronald Reagan

Democracy is worth dying for, because it's the most deeply honorable form of government ever devised by man. - Ronald Reagan

And, Ironically, Ronald Reagan once said that the way to protect Israel is through new Egypts. I'm not sure this is what he meant, but it is, possibly, the most prescient statement.

Summary only...

Egypt in Crisis: Day 18 - Revolution 2.0 Victory

Trying to keep up with the situation....



UPDATE 11:23Am CST; 19:23pm Egypt

Catherine Ashton, EU foreign minister gets it right on al jazeera when asked if EU was concerned about the domino effect of this revolution in an unstable region. She says that what is important is that the people of Tunisia and Egypt's voices were heard and that they want a say in their government. EU will support these people and others.

The whole world has gone Neo-Con. Update: More Neo-cons coming out of the woodwork and walking proud. Policy should be to support freedom and self-determination. Because stable dictators do not translate to a safer world (Al Qaeda came out of Saudi Arabia). See post: Domino Theory of Democracy

In other news, how the Obama Administration got it so wrong: Preparing aid package to opposition groups (after cutting the original aid on taking office from 45million to 25million).

In other, other news, oil prices drop on Mubarek's resignation. Doesn't the market get it right? Usually?

Update 10:37AM CST; 18:37pm Egypt

One twitter, Victory of the Twevolution; I think the price of twitter just went up on the auction block.

Update 10:13 AM CST 18:14pm Egypt

Mubarek resigns.

State Dept Tweeted (lost it in the roll of yay! Mubarek's gone), to #Egypt "Egypt will always have a friend in the US" or something to that effect. Must have known something was going on. Finally.

Update 9:56 AM CST; 17:56pm Egypt

Phone report to CBC news from Sandmonkey on protest at palace, situation, no negotiating since being in the street is the only guarantee. Protests remain peaceful. Mubarek only one who wants violence.

Update 9:32 AM CST; 17:32pm Egypt

Lt. General Sami Anan, Defense Minister, seen entering State TV. Rumor there will be an announcement soon.

Update 9:19 AM CST; 17:19pm Egypt

Cofirmed, tanks turn their barrels pointing away from protesters.

BBC reports Hussam Badawry, head of security, has resigned from NDP. Reminder, Wael Ghonim told Badawry he did not want to see the NDP logo in the streets again. Mubarek probably assured that last night with his speech.

Thousands marching towards presidential palace. More here and here. Thanks Sandmonkey!

Twitter report that the Police and protesters in Sinai clashed. One dead, twenty injured. Police station allegedly attacked by RPG. Caution on this report. Sinai is hot bed of bedouin opposition with some Hamas, etc connections. Not necessarily "peaceful" demonstrators in past events.

Update 9:03 AM CST; 17:02pm Egypt

Just saw live video, crowds pushed right up to the State TV building barricades talking excitedly to the military police guarding building. Climbing on top of tank. Military taking no action. Yet.

Update NYT: Confirms Sandmonkey, military split from regime. NYT says that the military command has assured western officials they would not use force against protesters. "Seems clear that the military will not go down with the regime." Twitter reports that military is handing out water, juice and biscuits to the protesters across barbed wire protecting certain locations in alexandria and possibly presidential palace in Cairo.

Update: not very many people on this side of the palace. twitter calls for people to join them there as everyone appears to be on the other side/street. Seems quiet.


Update 8:47 AM CST; 16:47pm Egypt

Sandmonkey reports via that they are marching on the State TV and now he is joining the march to the Palace in Heliopolis (quote: the protesters there are very chic; reference to affluent nature of people in area joining the protest). They are extremely fearful that if they do not take the regime totally apart any element remaining in power will seek to arrest and suppress the protesters.

Update to update: NDP spokesman says Mubarek and family are in Sharm Al Sheikh. Confirmed by Al Jazeera 8:54 AM CST; 16:54pm Egypt

First, let me point to a relevant post by an Egyptian Blogger at the epicenter of the Revolution. Sandmonkey talks about the split in the power structure and what it might mean.

In synopsis, the head of the NDP said Mubarek would step down, the Supreme Military Council also suggested that Mubarek would step aside and that the Protesters' demands would be met, the Minister of Interior (with his own goon squad) said that Mubarek would not step down. Then Mubarek came on TV and said that he would not be forced out by any foreign intervention (etc, etc, etc), but was designating power to his VP, Omar Suleiman and that a committee was being established to make the changes to the constitution necessary for open elections. Except, the emergency law that permits the authorities to arrest anyone for whatever reason they feel like, would not be set aside until "security permits".

That last was translated pretty quickly by the protesters that they would all be arrested as soon as they did as Mubarek demanded and went home. Especially concerned were the leaders of the revolt.

Then, Suleiman comes on, basically says the same thing as Mubarek with even more emphasis on the people going home, assuring that there would be changes, but security, economic and physical was paramount. Translate to the regime holding on to power.

Finally, today, the military Supreme Council communique #2 basically supported the transition of power, said it would insure that Mubarek and Suleiman held up their promises and asked for the people to go home and resume their lives.

Sandmonkey breaks it down to what he thinks it might mean.

One issue is that the Sauds were preparing an aid package should the US yank any support. Keeping in mind that the majority of US support was in the way of money that had to be spent on US arms and equipment that fitted out the Egyptian defense forces. There were other smaller packages, but this was non-governmental for NGOs doing agriculture and other projects. Not something that was likely at risk.

One aspect that seems to be overlooked. Even if the Sauds give the Mubarek/NDP regime money (aid), the military will be hard pressed to maintain its fleet of tanks, planes and various weapons without US parts, technical support or ammunition. I believe this keeps the military more circumspect in its actions.

Summary only...

Corner Stone of US Foreign Policy: Freedom and Democracy 3.0

Pushing Iran on fake democracy

Summary only...

Egypt in Crisis: Day 17

Intermittent internet connections are playing havoc with keeping up with the events in Egypt.

For those interested, the situation being reported around the net and via twitter is thus:

UPdate: 5:15pm CST; 01:18 Egypt

Military to make announcement soon. Obama to make announcement. Can't wait.

Mubarek and Suleiman might have thrown away US relationship, but military equipment is all american. Regime might get Saudi money, but military will be hard pressed to continue without receiving parts, equipment and ammo from US. Expect that is formulating military's response.

No idea what Obama is going to say.

UPdate 5:00pm CST; 01:00 Egypt

The power of the internet. Crowds in front of North Area Military Command Center, Alexandria. Chanting "Are you protecting the people, or protecting (Mubarak) the dog?!"

Update: 4:02pm CST; 00:00 Egypt

Suleiman gave a speech. Basically told everybody to go home and go back to work to save Egypt. said he will insure changes as outlined. Will insure the youth get the freedom that they have expected. Will lift Emergency Law when "circumstances allow", re-iterating Mubarek. Says that protests being fomented by outside satellite TV news and other foreigners. Cannot allow that to affect Egypt.

Twitter posts and CNN saying people marching out of alexandria towards Military North Area Command Center. Marchers left Tahrir and are outside of Egyptian TV. Presidential guard, not usual army, guarding station. Some urging calm, others saying Egypt about to explode.

Fears that protest will turn violent. People may act out and give military or other forces reason to act. Now wondering if military council's statement that they are taking steps to protect Egypt isn't something more threatening about breaking protest. That is only speculation. Otherwise, there may be a total break between President, VP and military.

Update: 2:46pm CST; 9:40pm Egypt

Told by Al Jazeera that my time translation wrong. Mubarek still not speaking. Pure speculation. Military, Mubarek and Suleiman still negotiating. Mostly military and Suleiman. Military probably wants Mubarek to hand power to Supreme Council "officially" to avoid "military coup" appearance Suleiman suggested earlier. How they can actually avoid that, I don't know.

Someone is on...listening.

Uh-Oh, Mubarek says he won't leave. Acting like he wasn't responsible for events on the ground and is sympathetic to protesters and those who lost their lives or were injured. Will investigate those terrible deeds. Issuing statement that constitutional changes have been recommended, but won't lift emergency law until appropriate time. Must safe guard the future of Egypt for the Youth in the street who want real democracy and freedom. Essentially stating that some anti-freedom force in country will come to power.

Why different statement from military v. NDP head v. Mubarek? Waiting.

Update: 12:40 AM CST; 6:40pm Egypt

Pres. Obama, very brief statement, US will continue to support an orderly transition to democracy.

OMG! Can Mubarek's statement just play already!?

Update 11:38 AM CST; 5:38pm Egypt

Waiting now. Mubarek announcement to be at 6:30pm Egypt, an hour from now. Wild speculation that it is pre-recorded and that Mubarek is already out of the country.

Update to the update: Geez. AJ is as bad as US cable news. When no news to report, show pictures and have lots and lots and lots of talking heads saying the same BS over and over again.

Update 10:57 AM CST; 4:57pm Egypt

Clarifying that the military has taken control, Supreme Council issues "communique #1" suggesting that as the official number of the first communication from the new government. Report that Mubarek's speech tonight is "pre-recorded". Rumors that he is on his way to Sharm al-Shek (?). speculation that he may leave Egypt via military transport.

Crazy down in Tahrir, crowd estimate impossible.

How the revolution began. This is a good report on how the social networking went from computer to the street. Seems like MB was definitely in there at the beginning, at least the youth part. More on that difference later.

Update 10:33 AM CSt; 4:33pm Egypt

Twitter full of fear of military governance. Insist that they want democracy, not military rule. Military has technically been in charge since 1952 after free officers coup. Not over yet.

Update 10:23 AM CST; 4:23pm Egypt

Apparently, this IS a military coup. Badawri, head of NDP, Mubarek's party said Mubarek would hand over to VP, Suleiman. The Prime Minister said Mubarek was still in charge. The military council said that the convening of the supreme military council without the Commander in Chief, President Mubarek, means that the military has taken control. They will over see dissolution of parliament, transition of government to democracy, writing constitution, etc.

Spokesman for Supreme Military Council says that Prime Minister Shafiq is incorrect. Mass confusion reigns as people try to figure out what is going on. Spokesman says that the supreme council includes Suleiman as the "political" aspect. Good golly, revolution is messy.

Update 10:05 AM CST; 4:06pm Egypt

Al Jazeera reporting that the military prevented Mubarek from making speech earlier handing power over to Suleiman, VP. AJ speculating that the power will be handed over to the military directly instead of VP. UPdate to update: says this may indeed be "military coup" as Mubarek may not be officially handing power to military, but military taking it, with prevention of Mubarek speech.

Crowd chants: Mubarek should wake up because tonight is the last night.

Update: 9:58 AM CST; 3:58pm Egypt

Twitter report that the road to Cairo Airport has been closed.

UPdate 9:40 AM CST 3:50pm Egypt

Twitter comment that Egyptian army, expected to be given power after Mubarek steps down, is calling up reserves. They say this is "confirmed", but no other posts.

Al Jazeera says "There is no KFC in Tahrir Square." LOL Have to take every moment of humor in this event. For instance, Al Jazeera, funded and founded in Qatar, ruled by a king with limited free politics, has an editorial: the poverty of dictatorships. Iron, thy name is Arab Revolution.

Update 9:34 AM CST; 3:35pm Egypt] Gen. Tantawi, Head of Defense Ministry, on TV now. Can't confirm what was said. Unconfirmed, "Everything that you want will be met." Tahrir square just went crazy.

[Updated 9:23 AM CST; 3:23 pm Egypt]

Uptick in pace of situation. Now confirmed reports that they expect Mubarek on TV tonight to announce giving his powers to Suleiman, current VP. That could be good or bad.

Tens of thousands are still gathering in Tahrir. At this time it is appx 3pm Egypt.

Of most interest is multiple twitters stating that Hussam Bawdry (Bawdri, Bawdary, Badawry), newly appointed head of security, was on both BBC, al Jazeera and CNN Arabic stating that Mubarek will come on state TV tonight to announce he is going to meet the protester's demands. No one is 100% sure what that means. It could be what had been earlier suggested. That Mubarek would step aside and delegate powers to Suleiman. However, Bawdry also said that he would be making major changes in the NDP party. No confirmation in writing from any news organization at this time.

Thousands of doctors and lawyers marched from disparate locations to the square. The lawyers should not be a surprise since Cairo University's law faculty declared Mubarek's regime illegitimate two days ago and said the professors would join the march.

A report from BBC that Muslim and Christian Egyptians are together on protests. Some believe that the recent attacks on Christians are state organized. Site state propaganda and control of religious and education centers as influencing the anti-Christian bigotry in the country.

Some in Egypt not so happy with protests. On the other hand, businesses selling coffee, wine and beer seem to be making a nice profit. That should be a good sign for people fearing extremist Muslim uprising in Egyptian politics.

Meanwhile, in their continuing attempts to appease the demonstrators and buy time, the regime has announced that three newly ex-ministers are being investigated for corruption. (You think?)

In other news, democracy domino theory in hyper drive:

Saudi "moderates" start their own political party and ask permission to exist from Saudi king. The leader of the party says:

His statement says it's time to endorse political rights, including the right to elect a government, promote the role of women in society and preserve women's rights.

It is hard to say what "role" for women in society or "rights" they want to promote, but elections are a good start.

In other news, after first AJ of Iran praising the demonstrations in Egypt, the Iranian Republican Guard have warned the "opposition" against rallying. Two days ago, the opposition had requested permission to rally in support of the Egyptian revolution. Obviously, the ayatollah's are fearful of what might happen if they allowed that to occur. Especially as it is clear that the Egyptian revolution is not faith based. No crystal ball required to see that coming.

Summary only...

Egypt in Crisis: Day 15

There is a both a plethora of information and extreme difficulty in comprehending events on the ground, even as they are blogged, as it is still more like peering at an entirely different world through a pin hole in a fifteen foot wall. The best information is still coming from twitter and blogs.

[update 11:45 AM CST; 1945 Egypt] Twitter posts that army is moving away from parliament building, People's Assembly. Waiting for confirmation as there are multiple people filming with their phone cameras and posting on website.

[update 11:29 am CST; 1929 Egypt] Strike at Suez confirmed, but clarified as not yet affecting traffic. Reports that newspapers and tv networks have thrown out regime "editors". Seems to be accurate as state TV just reported that the protesters have legitimate concerns and are patriots (as opposed to traitors or foreign spies creating unrest). New newspaper inside Tahrir square. Printed and given out for free because the owner says "they have shed their blood for freedom of the press". Qaadaffi in neighboring Libya on the other hand says that it is all Jews trying to dislodge Mubarek.

Odd listening to Al Jazeera. Mainly because it has the best reporting on the situation of any of the channels. Many of which are simply doing live feeds of the square from rueters or AP.

[Update 10:32 AM CST; 1832 Egypt] Unconfirmed report that 6000 port and canal workers at the Suez have refused to leave and are having a sit (ahram news reporting it as a "strike", union like, re: healthcare and pay, seems more like in concert with the revolution). CNN trying to get reporters there but were turned back by gov. forces. (small prediction: if this turns out to be true, look for US to push Mubarek to go out the door faster).

[Update 10:00 AM CST; 1800 Egypt] Evening prayers. About one third are praying the rest continue to move about. Can't really tell number of people there. Crowd spreads out past the square, over bridges, etc. Picture from People's Assembly (parliament) shows protests gathered there. Hard to tell #. Est. thousands. Wael Ghonim appeared at square for appx. 10 mins. Did not give speech. Said it was people's revolution. He is not the leader. "We will not abandon our demand and that is the departure of the regime." Crowd became larger after 5pm. Work let out. Atmosphere seems very "jovial".

[Update 8:45 AM CST; 16:45 Egypt] New twitter posts saying thousands in front of Cabinet, Health and Parliament buildings. No pictures. Live feed still showing Tahrir Square full of people. Another says that Al Jazeera is confirming protests have moved to government buildings. However, another poster says that there are only a "few thousand" and urges others to join them.

[Update] Twitter post urging protesters to march to Egyptian Parliament. Stand by for info (and earthquake)

First, Wael Ghonim was released in the late afternoon or early evening hours of February 7, 2011. His first tweet from his blackberry (apparently returned by Bawdry):

Freedom is a bless[ing] that deserves fighting for it

He later gave an interview on Egyptian DreamTV. It was live tweeted and blogged around the internet. An embedded video of the interview can be found at Al Jazeera as well as with a transcript of the interview here (scroll down). Or, if you don't want to give AJ your business, go to youtube.

The most popular quotes seem to be:

I am not a hero. I only used the keyboard; the real heroes are the ones on the ground.

Now they want to have an agreement with me when they are in a position of weakness. I am not a hero, I am a normal person.(...) Badrawi told me we took all the bad people out from the NDP. I told him I don't want to see the logo of the NDP ever again.

I want to say to every mother and every father that lost his child, I am sorry, but this is not our fault. I swear to God, this is not our fault. It is the fault of everyone who was holding on to power greedily and would not let it go.

Ghonim politely asked people to not use his image as a logo for the protests. Particularly any logo with Google's name on it.

For all protestations of not being a hero, Wael Ghonim's release and statement have apparently re-energized the protesters. At least those on the internet who are asking people to go again into the streets. Indications that labor unions will now join the protest. Expect that the people are planning to meet in Tahir as early as 9AM GMT.

This one actually seems extremely important. The University of Cairo - faculty of law has issued a declaration, posted at Liberty for Egypt. It is the largest university in Egypt. Aside from aligning itself with the Jan 25 movement that it sees as a revolution of the "Egyptian Youth", it calls for the resignation of Mubarek, the immediate dissolution of parliament, the destruction of the current constitution and the institution of a committee from all representations to write a new constitution.

One of the most important statements is actually statement #2:

Withdrawing all legitimacy from the current regime

While this seems just another stream of thought added to the cacophony and coming from a faculty of a college that would be summarily dismissed in the US, this is tantamount to the Harvard Law School declaring the US congress and president "illegitimate". It might be looked at with skepticism, but people would be wondering why.

Egypt is chock full of lawyers. It is one of Egypt's prominent professions. Of course, Egyptian lawyers have been at odds with the current regime for a very long time. They believe that the laws and decrees made are contrary to the constitution and often arbitrary as well as secret courts and other courts established by the regime to prosecute or persecute "enemies of Egypt". This has been largely directed at Islamists, but has included anyone the regime felt threatening such as prominent businessmen, political activists, bloggers or any others the state security system has apprehended.

Financial and civil law has also been subject to serious corruption by judges who are bought off or pressured by the regime as well as police collusion into tampering with witnesses and evidence (as what led to the original protest). The lawyers have obviously determined that it is time to lend legal legitimacy to the movement.

Interesting though, later in the document they still refer to the current constitution for legal basis in demanding that Mubarek resign and delegation of his powers to the Vice President, Omar Suleiman. Although, this might not go over well with the protesters who believe that Suleiman is personally responsible for the torture and death of many Egyptians and civilians.

Al Jazeera live blog reports that the professors will be marching to Tahir after noon prayers. Expect to see whatever lawyers that haven't joined yet may be marching, too.

AP reports this morning that Mubarek will appoint a committee to reform the constitution. In the midst of accusations of ongoing detentions of protesters and political opposition, Mubarek also issued a statement:

"The youth of Egypt deserve national appreciation," he quoted the president as saying. "They should not be detained, harassed or denied their freedom of expression."

Appx 90,000 have joined a facebook community nominating Wael Ghonim as their spokesperson. Most of it is in Arabic.

Twitter also has a number of posts requesting contact with the media or denying it as well as actual lists of medicines and supplies needed at the "field clinics" in the square. Mainly antibiotics and basic dressings.

A quote from Jan25 Facebook:

A government that is scared from #Facebook and #Twitter should govern a city in Farmville but not a country like #Egypt

Many reports that internet and Blackberry services are back up and people are using them like mad to get on the internet as well as contact family and friends. Lots of posters discussing, as if for the first time, how to get to Tahir and best entrances.

Finally, Mahmoud Salem, Sand Monkey, gave an interview to MSNBC about the protest and the use of social media in its organization.

Mahmoud says that after he was attacked by the police, his car destroyed, he was arrested and his ID obtained, he decided that it was time to stand up and show his face. To face those who have attacked them because:

"If we don't stand up, there is no point to this whole revolution."

Summary only...

The Challenge of Egyptian Freedom and Democracy

The challenges of instituting a true, representative democracy and any semblance of freedom in Egypt is being discussed by pundits and talking heads all over the net, including Egyptians who are on the ground.

What the hundreds of thousands of protesters in Egypt can agree on right now is that they do not want Hosni Mubarek as president, nor do they want the continuance of the current oppressive government. There are calls from the street for immediate new elections. Hopefully, free of fraud, intimidation or outright nullification.

At the same time, the Egyptian government is trying to negotiate a slower approach. They want Mubarek to stay at his post as president for the remainder of his term, which ends in September of 2011. For the NDP and the military, this is not out of love for Mubarek, but a desire to be able to shape the outcome, hold on to some power if they can and likely attempt to mitigate the power of other potential opponents. Specifically, the Muslim Brotherhood who must be considered the most organized and largest opponent. The opponent most likely to radically change Egyptian government, laws, culture and regional political landscape.

The United States' government is hoping for the same slower process. They no longer hope that Mubarek can hold on to power, but they also hope to reduce the potential power of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The majority of street protesters are not necessarily made up of the Muslim Brotherhood, but, in political terms, they are the most organized, they have established leadership, an established agenda and many members. They are also veterans of the Egyptian political system. Though the Brotherhood is banned by Egyptian law as a political party from floating candidates, they have participated by establishing "independent" candidates for parliament.

The rest of the "movements" involved have little organized political experience, relying heavily on ad hoc groups of similar minded people to come together spontaneously. They share ideas, but have little in the way of established leadership, established agendas or static membership. Some members of these movements may have participated in elections, developing and supporting candidates for election, but, for the most part, they are the simply a group of people that rejects the current regime and its oppression.

Many analysts and likely the US government, have come to the conclusion that the immediate removal of Mubarek and any new elections would be detrimental, not only to US interests, but to any nascent liberal democrats in Egypt hoping to gain a seat at the political table. The primary obstacle is that the current constitutional law says that, in the case of the resignation of the president or the dismissal of parliament, new elections would have to be held within 60 days.

Sixty days is not long enough for any ad hoc groups or smaller political parties (smaller than the NDP or the MB) to organize membership, find qualified, electable candidates or rally voter support for their election. Further, sixty days is not enough time to amend the current constitution to allow other parties or individuals to legally run for office. In short, if the elections were held within sixty days, the most likely outcome is that either the NDP would hold on to the office of president (possibly through a "rejectionist" member who promises changes, separates himself, at least, verbally, from the NDP, but is still in the NDPs pockets) or a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Ostensibly leaving any liberal, non-NDP out in the cold.

That is a likely scenario under the current Egyptian constitution.

Second, law is made by the Egyptian parliament that is currently stacked with NDP members. The likely mentality of the majority of these members is to hold on to power and mitigate any potential danger of probable prosecution and persecution should they fall out of power. They would be extremely slow in implementing any changes and most would likely be superficial. Particularly if a latent member of the NDP was elected as president who would direct those laws and rubber stamp them in the same hope of remaining the party in power.

There could be a number of NDP parliament members who splinter from the party or simply become internal opponents. Either based on their own estimation of how to survive the fall out or, as some might hope, as true citizens of Egypt looking out for their constituents as well as the best for Egypt as a whole. This could result in a loss of power for the NDP that would create another power vacuum. One that currently would be most easily filled by the MB.

Even worse, it could slow down any reform processes and constitute another crisis. One that could be uglier, more violent and definitely dangerous for Egypt and the region's stability.

Another worst case scenario is that a member of the MB becomes president while the NDP remains the controlling party in parliament. The natural adversity of these two parties could result in another crisis as parliament could seek to create obstacles or slow down any reforms to squash the president's power. Beyond that, the current constitution gives the president immense power. Powers that the new president, possibly an MB member, could use to suppress other smaller, less organized, more liberal groups.

In any case, another destabilizing crisis could occur and the liberal democrats could be marginalized or find themselves on the run from a new, oppressive government.

Another scenario would have parliament elections occurring directly after a new presidential election. New members of parliament would be tasked with setting up a committee to reform the constitution. Unfortunately, the two scenarios for president are also likely outcomes for immediate parliamentary elections with the NDP giving up seats to the MB while the liberals are left with only a handful of seats with little power to effect the outcome of any legal processes.

The NDP must be considered a still viable party because there is likely a majority of Egyptians who like the status quo or, more accurately, fear the instability and dangers of the Brotherhood's rule as well as unknown and untested liberals.

Any liberal minded individuals and groups are going to need time to get organized, put together their agenda, gain followers/membership and find viable candidates. The question must remain whether even the seven months leading to Mubarek's eventual end of term would be enough to develop that organization. Even more so, they would need extensive funding to even begin to compete with the funding the Brotherhood and NDP would receive.

Under the best case scenario, if freedom of speech and press are conceded, the liberals would have to find an outlet or build their own apparatus for disseminating their views. The state would still have their television, radio and newspaper outlets, the MB already has some apparatus in place and would likely be able to quickly spin up their own television news and various shows to spread their ideas. The liberals cannot rely on only the internet. Not everyone has the internet and the groups' ideas need a much wider acceptance.

Who will step forward to open a liberal or even "unbiased" program that would gain immediate and wide spread trust that could allow liberal ideas to be expressed? Who will fund it?

In truth, the liberals would be hard pressed to even get their views accepted by using outside news organizations since people may see this as "outside" or "foreign" influence on the organization. The liberal movements need some wealthy Egyptian benefactors as well as begin to organize their own potential followers for fund raising very quickly.

Time, though, may not be on the side of the protesters at all. Aside from the potential fallout of organized, self interested parties using the people power on the streets to push their own agenda and gain power, the current regime and ruling party may be able wait out their demands, give them superficial changes and wait for the over arching fatigue to turn public opinion against them.

The protesters seem to acknowledge this, but their one hope may be not only to demand the departure of Mubarek, but the dissolution of parliament as well. They could even demand throwing out the constitution to create an entirely knew one. In which case, an immediate and devastating power vacuum could appear. In which case, the unity of the protesters would begin to splinter and self interested groups would attempt to gain immediate power.

Even if the protesters could agree to establish a constitutional committee, power would still be based on money and membership. Further, the NDP is not going to go without a fight. The MB would fight hard to establish Shariah more firmly in the constitution and any legality of future laws. Keeping in mind that shariah is currently the basis of Egyptian law, but other secular laws guide other aspects of life including finance, religion (in limited terms), social laws (like the sale of alcohol in certain locations).

Even under the best case scenario where the liberals get time, funding, establishing candidates, become organized, find leadership and get a decent seat at the constitutional table, they are going to be hard pressed to keep the MB from pressing stricter shariah law on the constitution instead of gaining separation of "mosque and state". Not without joining forces with the diminished NDP. A move that could allow the MB to use it in the next election, alliance with the old oppressors, to force the liberals out or leverage more concessions in the reformation.

In all scenarios, it is difficult to see how any liberal Egyptians could gain enough power to move Egypt towards a truly free, democratic state. That is the greatest fear of the United States, Israel and other free nations.

Unless, of course, the "youth movements" of truly liberal minded people are as big as they believe they are and have true power of the masses. They could have immediate effect as long as the power still appears on the street keeping in mind that the MB will use their agenda for their own. However, that power could be used by the liberals to leverage concessions even from the MB.

The liberals need to establish their voice. Now. They need an agenda. Now. They need leadership, out front and in front of the media. Now. They need to show Egyptian people and outside nations that they are a force for good and a power to be reckoned with.

Mubarek's Resignation Could Hamper Transition

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