Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Iraq Political Situation: Federalist Iraq

I didn't see this before I wrote: Breakdown? Not So Fast

Basically I see the same political situation. It's deadlocked and these current folks don't feel any compunction about leaving it that way. They like their power base better than they love peace and reconciliation. The only way around this is if there is a sudden miraculous change of heart on the parts of many or a new national election.

Not that a new election doesn't present it's own dangers or the possibility of even more ideologically adherent and less tempered politicians. I also predicted some time ago after the first constitutional pass that provided the ability of regions to become basically states within a federalist Iraq, that this is exactly what would happen. The current central government holds only the power we give it and the few it can steal. Iraq may in fact go through multiple stages, as we did, where central and then state power reigns supreme before they balance it out.

Other issues though are states like Kurdistan who feel they can make deals with foreign nations outside of the central government. Having that as a precedent and the Shia south linking more closely with Iran is a major problem.

Somehow, the central government has to have the power. That may be seen directly in the power of aid money and military as well as the US putting pressure on outside nations that money for investment, aid, development and purchasing of weapons, etc must remain the province of the central government. We'll see how that works.

Hat tip Hot Air

1 comment:

Tom the Redhunter said...

Regarding your past several posts on the Iraqi political situation, I tend to agree with what you say. The "federalist" Iraq you speak of sounds kind of like the "soft breakup" I've read about. Iraq stays technically one country, but but with a *lot* of local autonomy.

I think we've always done Iraq backwards; we pushed for political progress from day 1 before we'd defeated the insurgency. We should have done the "surge"(more properly Phantom Thunder) in 2004/5, crushed the terrorists and militia, and only then pursued the political side.

But we are where we are.