Cold War: Warsaw Pact 2 and The Beginning of History

Well, no one can be surprised after the last seven years that Putin sees the way to economic power for mother Russia is to, once again, become the economic and military rival of the United States and NATO. Russia has been angry since the US support of Georgian independence amongst other former republics, as well as the offer for these nations to join NATO.

This offer includes protection from possible forceful re-integration into Mother Russia via outside arms or internal Russian supported political coup. But, more importantly, it was a bid to increase influence in an area rich with oil and natural gas in order to diversify US supply.

To offset that and what Russia sees as meddling in the affairs of its client nations, regional resources and economic viability, Russia created the SCO in 2001 along with China and several other nations:

Founded in 2001, the SCO, which includes the four central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as well as China and Russia, is rapidly gaining a reputation as an anti-Western organisation.

That image seems to be one that Mr Putin is happy to cultivate. Analysts say that the Russian president believes the organisation is emerging as a bloc that is rapidly becoming powerful enough to stand up to the West.

Russia's most pro-government newspapers, often used by the Kremlin as propaganda vehicles, yesterday proclaimed the arrival of an "anti-Nato" alliance and a "Warsaw Pact 2".

Now, another reason why calls from the right to bomb Iran and calls from the left to invade Pakistan are equally inept without some sort of plan to dissuade interference from certain actors:

Yet the SCO has wider ambitions. Pakistan, India and Mongolia all want to join - as does Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, attended the summit as guest of honour, a title bound to rile Washington. Iranian membership of the SCO would pose an enormous headache for the United States. Like Nato, its treaty states that an attack on one member is regarded as an attack on all, raising the prospect that the United States could find itself aligned against both Russia and China if it invaded Iran.

Something that should have been apparent without the SCO since China and Iran have very important Natural Gas and Oil contracts. China might protest mildly about Iraq, but it would certainly have a much bigger issue if Iran was invaded and the 20% of its energy resources were cut off. This is also the reason that Iran has felt safe in providing training, money, weapons and fighters for the Shia in Iraq. They fear no retribution, not just because the American congress is weak or our forces overstretched, but because they have the Russian Bear and the Chinese Yin behind them.

This is why we have chosen to combat Iran through economic warfare. Russia knows exactly what is happening because it has been there before. Iran is one of its essential "neighbors" in keeping the Caspian Sea and its energy resources (oil and gas) free and clear for exploitation by Russia and its compatriot states in the Caucuses.

This year, Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed a deal to expand a Soviet scheme for delivering gas from the Caspian region. This could challenge Western plans to open new supplies, independent of Russia, by routing exports across the Caspian Sea. Nursultan Nazarbayev, the Kazakh President, said that the group “should create an ‘Energy Club’, which . . . could become one of the key elements of Asian energy strategy”;

It has many cooperative pipelines with these organizations through which it derives a good portion of its yearly revenue. Russia and Kazahkstan are investing heavily in a pipeline that will stretch from Russia to China through Kazahkstan and allow direct delivery of oil to energy hungry China.

The report continues that China would probably block Iran from joining the organization since it does not want to anger the US and create a financial and political situation. India is very likely to remain an observer as well since it is working on becoming its own power in the region and has recently signed a deal with the United States for nuclear technology.

Additionally, this issue with growing Russian cultivation of Iran (where the Russian's have continued to work on the Iranian Bushehr Nuclear Plant for only half the necessary monthly payments) and Iran continuing to attempt to influence Iraq as well as potentially develop nuclear weapons, is what prompted the recent completion of an arms deal with Saudi Arabia even after serious opposition in the US congress due to perceived continuing Saudi inability to curb extremists from entering Iraq. The US sees the Russian/Chinese moves to influence the region as a threat and seeks to insure the major oil exporter remains firmly in the United States' pocket.

Out of all the West’s worries about the SCO, the greatest should be control of energy supplies. The war games, at the moment, are a showy distraction.

Even so, today's exercises will serve as a reminder that the global balance of power is shifting.

For the first time ever, China is deploying troops, tanks and aircraft on a combined mission abroad.

The exercises, being held in the Russian region of Chelyabinsk, involve 6,500 troops, heavy weapons and combat aircraft.

While the goal of the mission is to simulate the capture of a city held by terrorists, the sight of Russian and Chinese troops marching together will give observers in Washington pause for reflection.

This also prompted the US to complete a $30bil arms deal with Israel.

This situation may give a whole new perspective on Chinese goods that are suddenly no longer good enough to be sold in the US and a falling Asian market that tripped some panic in the US, London and Germany over sub prime loans and unrecoverable debt by over leveraged mortgage companies.

By mid-morning the FTSE 100 was up 54 points at 5,913, France's CAC 40 had risen 22 points to 5,288. However, Germany's DAX had slid 11 points, to 7,259.

Asian markets have continued their fall today, with Japan's Nikkei tumbling by 5.4pc and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropping by 3.3pc.[snip]

Mark Mobius, a leading fund manager at Templeton Asset Management, said fear was driving the markets, especially in Asia. "It's a selling panic," he said.

Things do not happen in a vacuum.

Russia is building Iran's nuclear plant and China sells Iran huge amounts of AK-47s, rockets, man-pads, SAMs and other weapons that make their way into Iraq and to mujihadeen in Afghansitan with the biggest arms dealer (a Russian) shipping arms to Iraq, Sudan and other hot spots.

Who are we at war with?

Somebody might want to look into Putin's eyes again.

Update: Russian Bombers flying in NATO space August 17, 2007

Other Posts/articles:

Cold War Continues: China Iran Matrix
Cold War Continues: Russia-Iran Matrix
To Russia With Love
The Importance of Being Taiwan
India Defends Nuclear Deal with US
Economic Warfare: Iran SitRep

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Zombie Democracy

"I doubt there is any country on this planet with a democracy more alive than the one we enjoy in Venezuela today."

Hugo Chavez to make himself president for life

The Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez has anointed himself president for life by proposing sweeping changes to the country's constitution.

Setting out his plans for completing his socialist revolution in the oil-rich Latin American nation, he proposing radical constitutional reform which has at its centre indefinite re-election for himself.

In a rambling televised speech reminiscent of his close ally and friend Fidel Castro, Mr Chavez told the national assembly of 33 changes he plans to make to the constitution he introduced in 1999 which will cement his grip on power.

"We have broken the chains of the old, exploitative capitalist system," said Mr Chavez. "The state now has the obligation to build the model of a socialist economy."

Of course, he sides steps any accusation that he's out to become a dictator. He is simply enacting the will of the people. Hitler much?

Jumping on the long black train of third world nations and dictators that need an outside enemy for the people to focus on while their rights are slowly eroded:

The armed forces, which have already adopted the salute "Fatherland, socialism or death", will have their mission enshrined as being "patriotic and anti-imperialist" in their defense of Venezuela against the United States, which considers Mr Chavez a threat to its influence in the region.

Actually, we aren't making Venezuela or Chavez our enemy, he is choosing to create that illusion himself so he can claim extraordinary powers for "security" like all the dictators before him.

As Mr Chavez's speech drew to a close he said: "I doubt there is any country on this planet with a democracy more alive than the one we enjoy in Venezuela today."

Frankly, I have serious doubts about how "alive" anyone in Venezuela actually is because it definitely has to take a bunch of zombies to cheer for and actively participate in the unquestioning destruction of their freedom and democracy.

Read also:

Ending Term Limits

Revolutionary Amateur Decision Makers

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Geekdom Marital Bliss and A Pig Named Napolean

What happens when you spend too much time on the computer or gaming on line? They say your personal relationships suffer. Or, do they?

Gamers' Happily Ever After(video)

Top 25 Strangest Laws

22. In France, it is forbidden to call a pig Napoleon [ed..but can you call it Mohammed?].
...
19. In Ohio, it is against state law to get a fish drunk. [ed...obviously someone has tried this or we wouldn't call it "drinking like a fish"]
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17. In the UK, a pregnant woman can legally relieve herself anywhere she wants – even, if she so requests, in a policeman’s helmet.[ed...nothing..I have...wait...is that why they call a bobby's helmet a "pot"? Considering that a "piss pot" is a chamber pot and a general insult...who can figure out these bloody British anyway?]
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8. In Kentucky, it is illegal to carry a concealed weapon more than six-feet long.[ed...and you would conceal that...where?]
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4. In Vermont, women must obtain written permission from their husbands to wear false teeth.[ed...I can only speculate in a way reminiscent of Genghis Ace and Rita-matic fueled Castle Parties why such permission would be necessary.]
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3. In London, it is illegal to flag down a taxi if you have the plague.

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Killer Robots and More

From Der Spiegal, an interesting report on all the new "killer robots" that the US military and the military industrial complex is looking to deploy in the near future:

Robot warriors have already seen action in Iraq, and the US Army plans to replace one-third of its armored vehicles and weapons with robots by 2015. These killing machines may one day come equipped with an artificial conscience -- even to the extent of disobeying immoral orders[ed...as opposed to humans who don't?].

It should come as no surprise as the military moves forward with unmanned jet fighters that are much larger than the latest predator drones and can carry nearly twice the amount of ammunition and fuel that a conventional, manned fighter can carry. Once you get past some of the "I.Robot" hysterics, there are other fascinating developments:

The US Army's latest recruits are 1 meter (about 3 feet) tall, wear desert camouflage and are armed with black M249 machine guns. They also move on caterpillar tracks and -- thanks to five camera eyes -- can even see in the dark.

The fearless fighters are three robot soldiers who, unnoticed by the general public, were deployed in Iraq in mid-June, charged with hunting down insurgents.[snip]

Because the three robots, dubbed "Swords," are being used in a secret mission, their creators have no idea whether the devices have already killed enemy fighters in combat.

The military is probably not going to release that information for a long time. Right now there is speculation on it and future uses that are already sparking discussions about humanity, morality and the use of robots to harm humans straight out of Isaac Asimov's book. When or if that is announced, a much bigger and broader discussion will ensue. Obviously, unmanned drones have already used hellfire missiles to take out buildings and known enemies. Because it is an aerial platform that many have been used to thinking of as a "spy plane" or other model planes that are relatively frequent in our society and likely because people have always associated aerial bombings as somewhat "surgical" and "cold", unlike shooting a human with a gun up close and personal, there has been much less concern. With ground robots who may or may not act autonomously, it is like a machine looking into the face of its victim.

A more important issue is noted here:

From a military standpoint, there are many reasons to support the growing use of steel soldiers. For one, fear and fatigue are non-issues. Robots kill without hesitating and, unlike flesh-and-blood soldiers, losing them is merely a financial loss. A new Swords goes for about $150,000. Besides, politicians and generals no longer need to worry about a public outcry over excessive fatalities: Who mourns a fallen tin soldier?

Yet, one issue that is not addressed here is what happens when a large portion of our forces are inanimate robots? What happens if you pay little cost for war? How important does it become to win? Will we actually see war as a defense and necessary for our survival? And, will the population be even less inclined to support that war or fight to win it when they have little, if anything, to lose? Further, if we have nothing to lose besides money, how much more inviting is it to use force?

Beyond the development of robots that may or may not have a "conscience", what about our "conscience"?

Other robots coming up quickly:

An even more impressive device on display at Webster Field was a seven-meter (23-foot) helicopter called Fire Scout. Instead of a cockpit, the unmanned helicopter has a windowless face that covers a Cyclops-like eye: a laser device that enables Fire Scout to land on its own, even on the tight deck space available on smaller warships.[snip]

Northrop Grumman is also developing an unarmed stealth fighter, the X-47, which the company expects to perform its first fully automated landing on a moving aircraft carrier in 2011. "By removing the pilots, we enable the device to remain airborne for an additional 10 hours or more," says Tighe Parmenter of Northrop Grumman. "To program an enemy mission, all you need is a keyboard and a mouse."

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20 Kilowatt laser blows up mortar(video)

It's been one of the big mysteries of the ray gun world: How exactly did Raytheon manage to blow up a set of mortars -- while using a laser that's only a fraction of what's considered battlefield strength? A company executive revealed the surprising answer in an interview with DANGER ROOM.

Pentagon Paid $999,798 to Ship Two 19-Cent Washers to Texas

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- A small South Carolina parts supplier collected about $20.5 million over six years from the Pentagon for fraudulent shipping costs, including $998,798 for sending two 19-cent washers to a Texas base, U.S. officials said.

The company also billed and was paid $455,009 to ship three machine screws costing $1.31 each to Marines in Habbaniyah, Iraq, and $293,451 to ship an 89-cent split washer to Patrick Air Force Base in Cape Canaveral, Florida, Pentagon records show.

The owners of C&D Distributors in Lexington, South Carolina -- twin sisters -- exploited a flaw in an automated Defense Department purchasing system: bills for shipping to combat areas or U.S. bases that were labeled ``priority'' were usually paid automatically, said Cynthia Stroot, a Pentagon investigator.

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War On Terror

Home Grown Terror - a very simple primer on how terror cells are forming in the US

Allegations of embezzlement, abuse and hate speech roil a Washington mosque.

The fireworks began earlier this year when federal prosecutors filed a criminal complaint against the recently ousted business manager of the mosque, Farzad Darui. A later five-count indictment charged that Durui, an Iranian native who formerly served as the mosque’s security chief, embezzled more than $430,000 in five years—in part by altering checks and diverting mosque funds to corporate entities he controlled.

This week, Darui returned fire. He claimed in papers filed in federal court in the District of Columbia that the charges against him had been manufactured by unnamed Saudi government officials as part of a scheme to oust him from his post. Their goal, Darui maintains, was to claim control over the mosque after Darui resisted Saudi efforts to have “radical” Wahhabi figures deliver messages of intolerance there.

The View from Afghanistan - The border is hot. the Captain noted problems with their Pakistani counterparts who man BCPs, Border Check Points, are possibly taking bribes or at least turning their backs as the Taliban come across. He also says that, they are supposed to be coordinating, but when they call their posts, they are slow or don't answer at all.

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Casualties of War

Wounded in War - One soldier relates how, after being severely wounded by an RPG, his buddies ran through a hail of fire to rescue him.

Army suicides highest in 26 years

Some interesting facts:

The 99 suicides included 28 soldiers deployed to the two wars and 71 who weren't. About twice as many women serving in Iraq and Afghanistan committed suicide as did women not sent to war, the report said.

Preliminary numbers for the first half of this year indicate the number of suicides could decline across the service in 2007 but increase among troops serving in the wars, officials said.[snip]

Failed personal relationships, legal and financial problems and the stress of their jobs were factors motivating the soldiers to commit suicide, according to the report.

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Military Inventions

Weapons Makers Unveil New Era of Counter-Terror Equipment- Most of the previewed items here are not "new", but "improved". Bullet proof glass and a robot that can "patrol" for days without coming back in, modeled after a Mars robot. Another interesting item was the vehicle bound x-ray machine that apparently can x-ray vehicles passively and will allow troops to identify vehicles with explosives or other contraband in them.

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Iran Gas Rationing

Just a thought on recent gas rationing in Iran. As Ahmedinijad consolidates power by placing compatriots and fellow IRGC members in power, stacking the election certification board and generally destroying any progress of the reformists in the last decade, it strikes me that gas rationing that was not necessary before has one of two purposes:

1) Reserves for the military pending an expected attack

or,

2) A way to limit the movement of people around the country, to limit the movement of dissidents or for groups to gather and, of course, limit the common citizens' ability to oppose whatever action he is about to take.

Not everything, I suppose, is about economics.

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Economic Warfare: Iran - Help and Hinderance

America's financial war on Iran

The UN sanctions prohibit transactions with a small number of Iranian banks, companies and individuals said to be directly involved in the country's nuclear programme or in support for terrorism.

But there is also a second, potentially more powerful, element. Since September 2006, US officials have been travelling the world talking to banks and company bosses. They aim to persuade business to voluntarily abandon or scale back all dealings with Iran.

Mr Levey, who is spearheading the Treasury's campaign, insists he is already getting results.

"There is significant evidence that it's working in the sense that Iranian business is being subjected to greater scrutiny and it's more difficult for them to operate," he says.

"A number of major financial institutions have cut off doing business with certain Iranian banks or with Iran entirely."

American financial pressure shows up in small ways. For example, international banks have become reluctant to issue letters of credit on Iranian trade, or only on exorbitant terms.

Letters of credit guarantee payment in international commerce. The alternative is paying in cash.

This has been going on since last September 2006. The HSBC was a major investor and handler of Iranian accounts. But, as the recent designation of IRGC as a terrorist organization (thus, all members are terrorists), one more "loophole" was closing against an organization that holds the reigns of companies that buy nuclear materials and other prohibited items.

So is American financial pressure as effective a tool as US officials claim?

Dubai is a good place to find out - a rich Gulf city that is Iran's economic gateway to the world.

A quarter of Dubai's population are Iranian and much of Iran's trade goes through Dubai. The relationship is similar to China's link with Hong Kong.

Iranian businesses in Dubai are universally reluctant to talk about such a sensitive topic. They risk offending either the Americans or the government in Tehran, more or less whatever they say.

Dubai and other international businessmen are only interested in one thing: money. They invest on that pre-requisite alone. Political, ethical nor humanitarian issues are at best, secondary concerns. Further, some businessmen are from the region don't see any ethical or political issues because a country like Iran is familiar to them in how it operates. The main concern is: is Iran stable enough that investments will see a return. At this moment, with Ahmedinijad exerting serious control over both the political and economic sectors, the answer is "yes" providing expected oil prices continue to rise and keep money in Tehran's pocket. Or, more importantly, as long as Iran can give the illusion that all is well (such as keeping $60 billion in reserve cash in a European bank while simultaneously being unable to pay workers, pay the fees for the nuclear plant at Bushehr and numerous other economically troubling concerns).

Mr Hashempore says Iranian businesses are all worried about US financial pressure, but so far, they are finding ways round it.

Mr Hashempore confirms that many Iranian firms are barred from doing deals in dollars, but they cope by switching to euros or yen instead.

He also says that many Iranian companies are able to pass themselves off as local Dubai businesses, which means they can get loans and letters of credit from international banks.

Under Dubai law, foreign enterprises are required to have a local business partner, nominally with a 51% stake in the firm.

These partners are usually paid a fee and play no active role in running the business, but for legal purposes, the firm can say it is locally-owned and thus avoid American financial pressure.

This is nothing new. Saddam was using the same loopholes to support his failing regime, purchase materials, launder money, etc, etc.

The obvious way to strangle the economy is to hit the vulnerable oil and gas industries. And yet, for international energy companies, Iran is potentially a mouth-watering prize.

European energy giants - including Shell, Spain's Repsol and Total of France - are eyeing up big up Iranian deals, as are Chinese and Malaysian oil firms. But in so doing, they all risk alienating the US, the world's only super-power.

Most oil companies do business in the US - and that would be under threat if they get too close to Iran.

There are already sanctions in place that limit investment to $20mil/year. This has greatly damaged an already aging oil infrastructure. A recent report indicates that Iran has twice the reserves of Russia, but Russia produces six times the daily output of Iran.

"What you're seeing is a strange sort of dance with some of these energy companies and they're all hoping that another company will be the first one in to become the lightning rod for the US reaction," he explains.

"The first company that does break ranks and makes a major investment will lead to an opening of the floodgates," he says, meaning that if one oil company does a deal with Iran, lots of others may follow.

So, basically, everybody is waiting for the first company to take one for the team and then they will be happy to build up the Iranian oil and natural gas fields, provide a criminal, terrorist, oppressive regime with the revenue that would sustain it for decades more.

Thanks big oil. For that reason alone, I'd be willing to support the "go green" protest the oil companies radicals.

Other Iranian Coverage:

Voice of America: Iran's Fifth Column

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Economic Warfare: Iran SitRep

There are many interesting things going on in Iran and with US Foreign Policy.

Economic Brinkmanship

Ace of Spades points out that the US is going to designate the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization:

The designation of the Revolutionary Guards will be made under Executive Order 13224, which President Bush signed two weeks after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to obstruct terrorist funding. It identifies individuals, businesses, charities and many extremist groups engaged in terrorist activities. The Revolutionary Guards would be the first national military branch included on the list, U.S. officials said -- a highly unusual move because it is part of a government, rather than a typical non-state terrorist organization.

The order allows the United States to block the assets of terrorists and to disrupt operations by foreign businesses that "provide support, services or assistance to, or otherwise associate with, terrorists."

The main goal of the new designation is to clamp down on the Revolutionary Guards' vast business network, as well as on foreign companies conducting business linked to the military unit and its personnel. The administration plans to list many of the Revolutionary Guards' financial operations.

According to the report, all known individuals and businesses related to the IRGC will be listed. This comes on the heels of continuing allegations from the the US that Iran is providing weapons and money to insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan while Ahmedinijad denies any involvement without actually directly denying knowledge:

When asked if Iran is supplying weapons to the Taliban by a reporter from Voice of America, a U.S.-funded outlet, Ahmedinejad laughed and said the United States doesn't want Afghanistan and Iran to be friends.

"The same allegation are made in Iraq. They are saying that they discover some weapons," Ahmedinejad said at a news conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. "What is the reason why they are saying such things? Iran is a big country. I have serious doubts about this issue."

Per a March review of the situation, the IRGC owns and operates upwards of 50% of industries and services within Iran. It also employs about 50% of the government work force. Previous sanctions against the Iranian government, including those originally in place since the 1979 hostage crisis, were specifically against the Iranian government in Tehran. The Iranian government has been transfering industries and control of service sectors to the IRGC, it's commanders and other related individuals in an attempt to side step these sanctions. This new designation will close up the loop hole that they operate in, force tighter controls by banks, companies and states who want to do business with the US to comply and, finally, allows the US to bring to bear other important tools through state, treasury, FBI and other government organizations.

Allahpundit at Hotair has a run down of recent attempts over the last year to squeeze the Iranian government with economic sanctions:

The two rounds of UN sanctions on Iran for noncompliance on its enrichment program specifically targeted the assets of the Guard’s top commanders; a parallel track of unilateral U.S. sanctions since January (around the same time Bush informally declared war on the regime) has been aimed at squeezing foreign financial institutions who deal with Iran. Formally designating the entire Guard a terrorist group will, I’m guessing, let the feds reach far beyond the commanders and squeeze even harder. Revisit this WaPo piece from April, also written by Wright, and marvel at the massive power they now enjoy within Iran under Ahmadinejad, himself a veteran of the group.

Another economic pinch came in October of 2006 when November and December oil futures took a precipitous drop by as much as $20 per barrel (from appx $73/barrel in June 2006 to appx $56/barrel) for an estimated net loss of up to $25 billion for the Iranian State revenues (17% of revenue; total budgeted revenue $143 billion) and did not regain the top price until almost a year later. The Iranian economy is largely based on oil and natural gas exports with 70% of its revenues depending on this business stream.

At the same time, in September of 2006 the US began to quietly advise international banks of the illegal or improper transfer of funds from credit lines and accounts to Iranian agencies and companies involved in the development of Iran's disputed WMD/Nuclear programs, terrorist organizations, illegal arms purchasing and other dubious projects instead of in infrastructure, businesses, oil and natural gas development that would have provided revenues to pay these debts. Besides being illegal and against known sanctions or laws of the banks' host nations, it also made Iran a bad credit risk. Import and Export businesses in Iran were affected as well when credit lines were not extended. These businesses that included food, textiles and manufactured goods, had to scramble for cash upfront to purchase goods, driving inflation even higher.

Housing prices have doubled, resources such as gasoline and natural gas have been rationed and teachers and other government workers have been unpaid for almost a year. This is nothing new as the government under Ahmedinijad has run into cash crunches since his tenure began.

Economic Mixed Bag and Caution Over Projected Impact

Some sources believe that the current Iranian economic situation is not all that bad:

Iran’s economy has stagnated in recent months, partly because of the country’s growing isolation in the world economy, partly as a result of dipping oil prices, and partly because of the government’s statist policies which limit private enterprise. Prices on goods like vegetables have tripled in recent months, while housing prices have doubled since last summer, reports the Associated Press. Economists say the government, which oversees 7 percent of the world’s oil reserves, has failed to redistribute this windfall of energy profits. Yet Torbat says Iran’s economy is not faring poorly when compared to its Middle Eastern neighbors. After all, annual growth hovers around 5 to 6 percent, Iran has $60 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and it boasts a current accounts surplus (that is, it exports more goods and services than it imports). Unemployment figures (officially 10 percent but probably closer to 30 percent) are also on par with the region, Torbat says

. There are several problems with this analysis, though, it is important to note that the Iranian economy had slightly stabilized in the spring of 2007 when, after US sanctions and refusal to allow Iran to trade in US dollars, it switched to the EURO. The euro is strong against the US dollar and provided an uptick in value of the Iranian Rial, but decreasing oil prices are, once again, placing a cash crunch on Tehran.

Problems with the above analysis include a comparison to other ME neighbors, two of which (Iraq and Afghanistan) are war torn nations as opposed to Iran's comparably stable and industrial nation. Second, regardless of "growth" that "hovers around 5 to 6 percent", it is offset tremendously by the rate of inflation that is somewhere between 16% and 22%. Inflation trumps economic growth. Third, Iran may "export more goods and services than it imports", but that is complete misdirection. Iran is a net importer of several essential goods and resources including gasoline (they only have one refinery) and manufactured goods like household and industrial equipment, cars, cooking oil, etc. In terms of food, Iran has been pressing subsidized farmers to export wheat and other agriculture, forcing the price of food to increase substantially as it must be imported to provide for the general population.

However, some companies and nations continue to invest in Iran including China, Canada and Gulf nations like Dubai. Creating some jobs, but far below Ahmedinijad's campaign promises to create almost a million jobs a year. There are also deals with European nations and Turkey for natural gas and a recently inked deal with Iraq for a pipeline to refine oil and sell the finished product back to Iraq.

This deal precipitated the replacement of Iran's oil minister:

Reuters noted on August 13 that the Oil Ministry was also accused of agreeing to provide Pakistan and India natural gas through the "Peace Pipeline" project at a disadvantageously low price. Vaziri-Hamaneh recently rejected claims by parliamentarians that Iranian negotiators had agreed to sell gas at a 30 percent discount. He said there has been no agreement on price, so no discount could have been given. The daily "Etemad" cited regional gas sales as a factor suggesting Vaziri-Hamaneh had been removed. The same paper on August 13 observed that Vaziri-Hamaneh had also failed in the past two years to attract investment from major international oil companies.

The last is a little disingenuous as ongoing and increased sanctions keep most companies from investing anything beyond $20 million/year per US Law and UN sanctions. There is also a problem that Iran has consistently overspent its budget and has borrowed heavily against future oil revenues while US efforts with international banks have made Iran a much higher risk for investment. Further, the aging oil infrastructure requires many expensive updates just to maintain status quo, much less increase its viability. Finally, Iran has not been a good partner by providing its share of the costs for infrastructure development. This makes oil companies reluctant to invest heavily and undercut their own profits.

Another recently replaced minister notes other issues:

Ahmadinejad has been criticized across the political spectrum in Iran for the country's high inflation, and for ploughing extra revenues from high crude oil prices into high-spending infrastructure projects.

In his letter, Tahmasebi cited an "emphasis on the freezing of prices of industrial goods such as cement, sugar, dairy products, vehicles, and home appliances, while the cost of all the other elements in their production has increased."

He also complained that "the ministries of energy and oil could not give factories the necessary water, electricity, and gas. This emanated from a lack of investment in their expansion."

"Other infrastructure" includes new military buildings and the Bushehr Nuclear Plant that costs $25 million/mo just to continue work. According to Atomstroiexport:

Russia has said it will stick to the project, worth about $1 billion. But Atomstroiexport said Iran was still paying just a fraction of the $25 million a month needed to finish the plant.

"Confidence in the project has been undermined," said Atomstroiexport spokeswoman Irina Yesipova. "It is an unstable situation where there are lots of announcements but no money."

Iranian officials insist they have made payments on time and say Moscow is delaying because of Western pressure.

"There is just not sufficient financing and that has influenced confidence, the confidence of the Russian side and Russian subcontractors towards the Bushehr project and towards Iran," Yesipova said.

Other money has gone towards Iran's conventional weapons build up, the financial and material support of terrorism and dubious programs to create "jobs" that are state programs without any revenue stream or return for the government.

The outgoing industry and mines minister, Alireza Tahmasebi, has faced more concrete problems. Tehran-based economist Said Lailaz wrote in "Etemad" on August 13 that figures provided in recent years by Iranian Central Bank hinted at weak -- and declining -- industrial output. Lailaz wrote that the growth in the Persian year to March 2007 of the value of industrial output was the lowest in seven years despite significant state investment each of the past two years. Lailaz forecast continuing industrial decline, leading him to conclude that "for the first time since the [Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88], the engine of Iran's economy, the industrial sector, has effectively broken down." Lailaz did not lay the blame solely on Tahmasebi; on the contrary, he pointed out the role of what he described as "contradictory" government policies. He said the government apparently preferred to pour money into its own job-making schemes, rather than into existing industrial enterprises. Lailaz also argued that industry was hurt by the government's tampering with tariffs, and by its liberalization of some imports while the prices of some domestically made goods were fixed. Moreover, he noted the inflationary effect of the spending of billions of petrodollars inside the country.

Unstable Economics and Consolidating Power

Like Putin's move to place former KGB compatriots in key government and industry positions, Ahmedinijad has been replacing ministers with former IRGC and known hardliners as well as stacking the election certification board in time for the upcoming parliamentary elections. An obvious move to insure that parliament, as well as other government sectors comply with his programs.

As the economy lists from one side of the line to the other, Ahmedinijad, with the support of certain elements on the governing council, continues to consolidate power. the US, in turn, continues to put pressure on every point of the Iranian economy. Iran, in return, ratchets up its rhetoric and support for terrorists in a proxy war against the US. Their sole intent is to force the US out of the region and provide much needed breathing room from the ongoing economic destruction of their regime.

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Pat Tillman Death and Conspiracy - Lt. Gen. Kensinger

In a recent report, Lt Gen. Kensinger recently released a statement indicating that he will be defending himself before "the board" of review that will decide whether he will lose rank and how much:

FAYETTEVILLE, N.C. - The retired general being considered for demotion after the friendly fire death of former pro football player Pat Tillman wants to defend himself before an Army board, his lawyer said.
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Retired Lt. Gen. Philip R. Kensinger Jr. was censured for "a failure of leadership" and accused of lying to investigators, and an Army board set to meet in the coming weeks will determine if he should be demoted. Kensinger, a three-star general, was in charge of the Army Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg when Tillman was killed three years ago.

Kensinger refused to testify before congress for a very good reason: anything he said would be under oath and could be used against him at any military proceedings.

In regards to whether Kensinger lied to investigators, I have not reviewed all of his testimony, but I did review his last statement here

Beyond the alleged "false official statements", Kensinger made two other serious mistakes. First, he admitted that, due to a previous incident, he decided to re-interpret Army regulations more stringently and in direct contradiction to standard operating procedures, to withhold even the information that an investigation was underway. The second issue, by his actions, he did damage the image of the army.

I suspect though that his defense is going to be that others were aware of the investigation and that the national news was still announcing Tillman's death as due to enemy fire. He is going to try to convince the board that this knowledge and Centcom's and DoD's continuing silence was implicit approval for his actions.

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First, There Was Disco...

...and then there was this:

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Women in Combat: Where I Part Company with Conservatives

Reading this piece, Rubber-Stamp RAND Report Excuses Women in Land Combat, (h/t Mudville) I knew immediately I was going to disagree with it.

There are issues in here about appropriate congressional oversight of mandated laws which requires at least 30 days notice that women will be assigned to front line units or roles in theater. I understand those concerns based on our still rather conservative society. Yet, I believe that it is likely most of the MOSs these women are serving in are designated as roles women can serve in without congressional oversight.

But, where I really doubt this interpretation of the RAND report is this section:

The document condones practices that blatantly disregard congressional-oversight requirements mandated in law, and puts female soldiers at the mercy of commanders making up their own rules. What’s worse, the RAND Report disregards the military consequences of forcing women into or near direct-ground-combat units, which attack the enemy with deliberate offensive action. Nor does it mention that such a change ultimately will expose civilian women to future Selective Service registration and combat duty on the same basis as men. The authors seem unconcerned that all of this could happen without Congress or the American people having a say.

As far as I know, based on anecdotal evidence only, but including conversations with many women who have served as combat medics and as leaders of CMOCs, etc, I have not heard one woman complain about being "forced" into these roles. In fact, from my experience, most of the women who have served in these positions have trained for and volunteered for these positions. Some have even demanded it. Most of them are not overtly concerned with women as future Selective Services candidates. They are largely concerned about two things: 1) giving as much service as their male counterparts; and 2) having as much career opportunity and advancement as their male counterparts.

Can Donnelly provide any reports, official or anecdotal, that women are being "forced" into any combat or near combat related role?

It's bunk.

Then we get this time worn and bogus issue:

Our female soldiers are indisputably brave, but the military cannot disregard differences in physical strength and social complications that would detract from the strength, discipline, and readiness of direct-ground-combat units.

Collocated forward support companies, called “FSCs,” also are required to be all male for many good reasons. No one’s infantryman son should have to die because the FSC soldier nearest him cannot lift and single-handedly carry him from the battlefield if he is severely wounded under fire. Male soldiers have that capability. Female soldiers, no matter how brave, do not.

Gees...I am hard pressed at even where to begin, but let me talk about "social complications". Women are serving in great numbers on bases all over Iraq and Afghanistan. Bases that are large and small. Let us say, for simplicity, that Al Faw Palace in the Green Zone, arguably the largest base and well protected, is most closely associated with the "rear". It is in the middle of Baghdad. It is mortared still pretty frequently and "front line" offensive forces come and go from there every day to patrol Baghdad. Women are on this base. It IS the front line. Exactly where would Donnelly like these women to be based? Kuwait? How about Balad? It is routinely mortared, has infantry troops stationed there that go "outside" the wire and so is a major medical unit, personnel, paymasters and various other support groups.

Exactly, how would she like these forces allocated? And the nurses who volunteer to take medical flights that are shot at? What different social connotations are supposed to exist on a small base where front line forces are compared to a big base? And, how often does it really happen that women are on absolutely remote bases with small forces?

In reference to what women or men can or cannot do, there have been plenty of instances where combat medics have pulled men to safety. Raven 42 comes to mind. There are also stories of men single handedly carrying another to safety. But, many famous images, including that of Sgt Brad Kassal, show a common action is multiple men working together to pull carry the wounded to a safe location. This is not about lack of body strength or heroics, this is about economic use of strength and quickly resolving the situation. It is how they train in the first place to work as a team to protect and secure their battle buddies. It is not about whether an individual is effective or not at a single person removal.

She continues with the "no matter how brave" meme. I believe that is referred to as "damned by feint praise".

I don't know what is going to happen for selective services registration. That is its own separate issue that has a particular law guiding it that was enacted at the beginning of our creation as a nation. Congress would definitely have to enact a revision or a new law to replace one that calls for every able bodied man between 18 and 40 to be called in a time of necessity.

What I do know is that women have been serving, not just with distinction or "bravely", but voluntarily and with purpose. They are 15% of in theater forces and 30% of over all forces. Trying to turn back the clock to some 1980's version of the military and society is not going to happen.

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The Problem With Afghanistan: They Have No Petraeus

And, apparently, have not implemented the new counterinsurgency manual and tactics or can't because there are not enough forces.

From Matt Sanchez - Nate Fick on Afghanistan Counter-insurgency

The second pillar of the academy's curriculum relates to the first: The more you protect your forces, the less safe you may be. To be effective, troops, diplomats and civilian aid workers need to get out among the people. But nearly every American I saw in Kabul was hidden behind high walls or racing through the streets in armored convoys.

Afghanistan, however, isn't Iraq. Tourists travel through much of the country in relative safety, glass office towers are sprouting up in Kabul, and Coca-Cola recently opened a bottling plant. I drove through the capital in a dirty green Toyota, wearing civilian clothes and stopping to shop in bazaars, eat in restaurants and visit businesses. In two weeks, I saw more of Kabul than most military officers do in a year.[snip]

Of course, mingling with the population means exposing ourselves to attacks, and commanders have an obligation to safeguard their troops. But they have an even greater responsibility to accomplish their mission. When we retreat behind body armor and concrete barriers, it becomes impossible to understand the society we claim to defend. If we emphasize "force protection" above all else, we will never develop the cultural understanding, relationships and intelligence we need to win. Accepting the greater tactical risk of reaching out to Afghans reduces the strategic risk that the Taliban will return to power.

Read the rest: Nate Fick on Afghanistan Counter-insurgency

This is the only place that Fick loses me:

Winning that consent will require doing some difficult and uncomfortable things: de-escalating military force, boosting the capacities of the Karzai government, accelerating reconstruction, getting real with Pakistan. It won't be easy. But the alternative, which I glimpsed while staring down the barrel of that machine gun, is our nation going zero for two in its first wars of the new century.

No mention of Iran? Actually, my issue is the vague "getting real" with Pakistan. Some people believe that we should be striking deep into Pakistan in order to kill or disrupt the Taliban and AQ. Pakistan has nuclear weapons. It is not that the current government of Pakistan is feared to strike the US or any of our allies/forces in the region. The "real" issue here is Musharref's tenuous hold on the government and the huge percentage of Islamists (dare I say "fundamentalists") in the country that, under the right push could force a coup in Islamabad and leave the nuclear weapons in the hands of AQ's fellow travelers.

President Bush recently urged Musharref to hold democratic elections regardless of the situation. It is a principled stand that is much more difficult to follow when the consequences can be huge for Pakistan. Of course, many dictatorships have withheld elections for one "security" reason or another, but this is not a bogus condition in Pakistan. In fact, a change in leadership could place Pakistan firmly outside of our influence and lead to the third front in the war as some like Nate Flick believe is the right move.

From this perspective, there is no good outcome from such an event. Military forces are already operating at 150%. Our NATO allies would not support such an attack and it would certainly bring to fruition AQ's sought after World v. Islam War. It is the same reason that we do not attack Iran, but rather use economic and political pressure to change the regime.

Of course, this means that all groups continue to make war with us without suffering a righteous blow to deflect or destroy them. What we need to do is press forward in Iraq, stabilize it and then transfer our counterinsurgency efforts to Afghanistan. We can always deal with Iran and Pakistan through other means or at a later date. First we need to free up forces and not by arbitrarily leaving one battlefield, but leaving it with a "win" firmly established.
http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.bold.gif
insert bold tags
Nate Fick wrote One Bullet Away and appeared in the book Generation Kill written by a reporter who was embedded with Fick's unit on the push to Baghdad in 2003.

My Comments here:

Thoughts on Generation Kill

Managing War

I always temper my conclusions on Fick's writings by recalling these two references. Fick left the military shortly after his tour in Iraq which ended shortly after the fall of Baghdad. One quote sticks in my mind:

..when the stark realization hits Lieutenant Fick that, to be a great Officer, you must be able to order the death of everything that you love.

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Major Attacks Down 50% in Iraq: What Does It Mean?

Nothing right now. One of the things that I've been cautious about is allowing statistics to sway my opinion on the status of the war. Neither an increase nor a decrease in casualties determines the status of the war. Neither do increases or decreases in attacks. Not in terms of trying to compare them from any period over the last four months or four years.

Major attacks decline in Iraq h/t Ace of Spaces

One of the reasons that the main stream media is slow to take this up is the same reason that I am reluctant to use it as a measurement for success. Largely because we have heard and seen these decreases and increases over many different periods of time. It often reflects when we have picked up our operational activities. But, it has also reflected different realities of fighting in a desert country with high temperatures and a society that is still tied closely to agriculture and animal husbandry. Even the United States has planned invasions of Iraq around known weather patterns and seasons.

I have no idea where the data comes from for the "50%" drop, but the Brookings Institute index, that I have reviewed in past periods and that has sometimes been used to reflect one political idea or other about the status of Iraq, does not really reflect that decrease. There must be data from the military or other organization that reflects this change.

Some things that might skew current number are seasonal and cultural considerations.

This is not simply related to our efforts, but are directly related to how the insurgents conduct their operations. Some of which is dictated by the weather. throughout the last four years, attacks have spiked in late spring as the weather has warmed and the rains that make the terrain difficult have decreased. Then, through mid to late summer, the attacks taper off. Largely because it is simply too hot to conduct operations, even at night. They pick up again towards mid fall when the weather is cooler and the rains have not begun. There is the months of Ramadan where everybody has a long vacation and it gives the part time insurgents time to participate more fully.

Then you have the overlying issue that Iraq has a large part of its population involved in agriculture and animal husbandry. The cycles of planting and birth also predict upticks in attacks based on availability of personnel to carry them out. (keeping in mind that early spring is time for planting and when lambing is most prevalent and early fall is also the beginning of harvesting foods, culling herds and breeding the remaining herd for the following spring).

The final tally for the year and subsequent comparison does not represent any real intelligent data that we can base "winning" or "losing" on. In fact, during a recent argument with an "escalation of war" alarmist, I pointed out that all wars have escalated more towards the end with more deaths than at the beginning. That is in classical warfare and counter-insurgency. That is typically how one armed force defeats another.

The real question will be whether the Ramadan period and next spring offers the same kind of conflict or whether it drops off to near nil. The number of attacks today are significant only to the point that it indicates our interdiction and harassment operations along with COIN are successful in interrupting their current operations. Will it significantly decrease their future capabilities? We won't know until the future of course.

In short, these numbers mean nothing until it is a sustained decrease in deaths and wounding of Iraqis and Coalition and a requisite increase in economic indicators.

Read also:

Mike Yon: Three Marks on the Horizon
Ligers
Ashes and Dust

H/T Mudville

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"Flexible Battery": Military Use?

Recently, the DoD announced a contest to design a portable, lighter battery pack for soldiers' equipment in the field.

The Department of Defense is asking a person or team to come up with a way to lessen the weight of the 20-40 pounds of batteries a solider carries on a typical four-day mission. The batteries power everything from soldiers' GPS systems to their night-vision goggles.

"In many missions the batteries are heavier than the ammunition they are carrying," said Dr. William S. Rees Jr., Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Laboratories and Basic Sciences -- whose office, the Director of Defense Research and Engineering, is sponsoring the prize competition. "We'd like to reverse that ratio."

There was a million dollar prize for the design.

There is no indication that this group was working towards the prize, but I found this announced invention interesting and began thinking about how it could be integrated and adapted for military use:

Researchers develop bendable battery

WASHINGTON - It's a battery that looks like a piece of paper and can be bent or twisted, trimmed with scissors or molded into any shape needed. While the battery is only a prototype a few inches square right now, the researchers at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute who developed it have high hopes for it in electronics and other fields that need smaller, lighter power sources.[snip]

Unlike other batteries, Linhardt explained, it is an integrated device, not a combination of pieces.

The battery uses paper infused with an electrolyte and carbon nanotubes that are embedded in the paper. The carbon nanotubes form the electrodes, the paper is the separator and the electrolyte allows the current to flow.[snip]

And over about 18 months, the groups developed the projects, into a battery, a capacitor, which stores electricity and a combination of the two.

Ajayan sees potential uses in combination with solar cells, perhaps layers of the paper batteries that could store the electricity generated until it is needed, he said in a telephone interview.

Perhaps it could be scaled up and shaped into something like a car door, offering moving electrical storage and power when needed.

It's thin. It's light. It can bend. The applications would be endless. The adaptability would be as well. One way that it could be shaped or developed for carrying could be to line already existing equipment or carrying devices with the material such as Body Armor vests, back packs, helmets, lining the cases of the equipment itself, etc, etc, etc,
In fact, if it could be integrated into the equipment itself, the equipment could be redesigned to be less bulky, creating a slimmer silhouette that would facilitate maneuverability.

Inside additional equipment or even clothing, the batteries could provide endless back up supply that was equally light. It could be carried by every member of the unit in those configurations. It could also be rolled into tubes and simply carried in a pack.

There are a few draw backs. The first is cost. Carbon nanotubes are not inexpensive to make. The technology and manufacturing capabilities could be an expensive undertaking. Although, if it is underwritten by government grants as well as has confirmed contracts, the set up costs could be offset considerably.

The second issue will be its capability to support the amount of energy required for some of the technology. The inventors believe that the battery is comparable to others already in use:

"So from the commercial standpoint, this would be very expensive if you want to make a large sheet out of this material," he said via e-mail. In addition, he said, "It does not look like it performs better than currently available batteries and supercapacitors in the market."

Actually, it could be a cost saver if the overall design of equipment, like radios, could be adapted to require less space and, thus, less material to cover, for the battery. This cost savings could translate into making the cost of the "paper" battery more inviting as well as the possibility that it would take less space to carry extras, for shipping, etc. There is a built in cost savings there. Finally, the most important savings, weight, translates into saving transport space and maneuverability for soldiers. That can translate into a more effective force and that equals winning more quickly and saving more soldiers' lives.

So, cost maybe less of a factor.

One other question that cannot be answered by this article: what sort of electrolytes are being used? If this flexible battery were integrated into equipment and armor and it was struck by a round, would it be harmful to the soldier?

If not, I think the million dollar prize can go to this group.

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Karl Rove Resigns

Karl Rove Resigns

And now we wait for the triumphant bugling of the crazies who will now claim they brought down the great Darth Rove.

It is rather amusing.

And the AP ends with this rather lame assassination of character to end their seven year running battle with Rove:

The jury did not hear testimony that Rove was not indicted after testifying five times before the grand jury, occasionally correcting misstatements he made in his earlier testimony.

"Correcting statements" is called cross examination. Not being told that he was called before a grand jury five times is called eliminating prejudicial statements. It's the law, dummies.

Nor did the jury hear testimony about how Rove is credited as an architect of Republican political victories and has been accused by opponents of playing dirty tricks.

Like people don't know that Rove is the "architect of Republican political victories" and once again, the law does not allow people to make uncorroborated statements regarding unsubstantiated rumors and myth.

All that jurors heard is that Rove leaked Plame's identity and, from the outset, got political cover from the White House. He was never charged with a crime.

"Leaked" being the operative word here. Since he was not charged with a crime, he could not have "leaked" it in the classical sense of "letting out a secret". IE, there was no secret to tell. Ergo, it was not "leaked".

Mind you, I don't worship Darth Rove, believe he is infallible or that he controls the universe. Generally, I don't think about him much at all. However, this kind of, dare I say, "character assassination" disguised as reporting is some where between annoyingly predictable and amusingly contrived.

Actually, the most interesting aspect is this:

Karl Rove, President Bush's close friend and chief political strategist, plans to leave the White House at the end of August, joining a lengthening line of senior officials heading for the exits in the final 1 1/2 years of the administration.

Political analysis? President is a lame duck who is re-shuffling his cabinet to prepare for his final "legacy" year, wherein he will become reconciled to the majority Democrat congress?

Or, Rove has decided that the president's moves to become more detente in his final year by negotiating with Iran, Syria, etc, his services or no longer necessary?

Or, the president thinks that, now that the hot coals are out from underneath them regarding Plame and Gonzalez, it's a good time for the albatross to exit quietly "into that dark night", preserving the president's image as "loyal" to the end to those who have served him well?

Either way, while the netroots will go crazy, crowing about his alleged defeat at their hands, he actually exits from the battlefield an undefeated, unprosecuted, though slightly bloody, warrior.

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Another If you Believe This...

China toy boss kills himself amid recall

BEIJING - The head of a Chinese toy manufacturing company at the center of a huge U.S. recall has committed suicide, a state-run newspaper said Monday.
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Zhang Shuhong, who co-owned Lee Der Industrial Co. Ltd., killed himself at a warehouse over the weekend, days after China announced it had temporarily banned exports by the company, the Southern Metropolis Daily said.

Liu said Zhang hung himself on Saturday, according to the report. It is common for disgraced officials to commit suicide in China.

Mmmm...we are talking about the country that sentenced their equivalent to the head of the FDA to death for taking bribes along with several other officials. Something that caused some angst among their western partners. We are talking about a country with really horrible human rights abuses that they frequently try to cover up.

My bet is ol' Lee Der had some help.

This is another one that I can't believe the AFP printed without blinking.

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If You Believe This...

Man dies of fright in Saudi vice police custody: report

RIYADH (AFP) - A Bangladeshi man died of fright after being arrested by Saudi Arabia's controversial religious police for washing a car instead of praying, a local newspaper reported on Sunday.
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The unnamed man died last week in the holy city of Medina after being detained by members of the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, Al-Jazirah reported.

The Arabic daily said the man "convulsed in fear after he was arrested, leading to a drop in his blood pressure and causing his death."

...I have some ocean front property in Arizona I can sell to you cheap.

What is even more unbelievable is that the AFP (Associated French Press) reports this without even blinking.

Merde

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Be A Neighbor to the Prophet

Mecca's Lost Heritage

"To me, Mecca is not a city. It is a sanctuary. It is a place of diversity and tolerance. ... Unfortunately it isn't anymore," said Sami Angawi, a Saudi architect who has devoted his life to preserving what remains of the area's history. "Every day you come and see the buildings becoming bigger and bigger and higher and higher."

Abraj al-Bait is a complex of seven towers, some of them still under construction, rising only yards from the Kaaba, the cube-like black shrine at the center of Muslim worship in Mecca. "Be a neighbor to the Prophet," promises an Arabic-language newspaper ad for apartments there.

An no one form this Saudi ad company has had a fatwa issued calling for their head? Talk about your double standards.

Saudi Arabia is trying to better serve the growing upscale end of the pilgrimage crowd, while investors — many of them members of the Saudi royal family — realize the huge profits to be made.

Never mind. That explains it all.

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