Our SOB in Pakistan

Cross Posted At The Castle

What do we do about Pakistan? Musharraf has put us in a bad position. A calculation on his part that was probably a foregone conclusion after the Pakistan Supreme Court ruling that said he had to resign as head of the military forces if he wanted to continue campaigning for president. Bhutto decided to take the opportunity to press for her return. Musharraf was being pressured politically and militarily as his forces continued to take beatings in the Tribal areas of Waziristan. He may have felt he had no other recourse, but to declare martial law.

Then again, Musharraf is either supported by the US or his government collapses which means either an Islamic government comes to power or even a "moderate" government, taking in consideration other internal issues, that would force the government to reduce cooperation with the US against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Waziristan. Thus, giving Al Qaeda and the Taliban the truly protected space they require to refit and re-organize.

Leaving us with the prospect of a deposed Musharef in a truly unstable state with nuclear weapons or backing Musharraf after disbanding Democracy and hope we can pressure him into re-establishing it and allowing elections. Even then, the damage may be too extreme since the electoral backlash (or military coup) is likely to be Musharraf's demise.

Are we forced to re-track to "realist" politics and simply back Musharraf as a long term, oppressive dictator, for-going any moral stand on democracy?

Or, do we stand on democracy and hope Bhutto can pull something together to maintain a government that can bring the non-Al Qaeda fundamentalist, Islamists and the more "liberal" urban democrats into a government that can share power?

Or, are we prepared for a total chaotic state where the nuclear weapons may be up for grabs?

This possibility was probably what has had Adm. Fallon talking about re-deployments of troops to counter "other" threats.