Iraq Politics: As Predicted, Sunni Accord Front Makes a Deal

As I predicted on Tuesday, January 2, the Sunni political party with the third largest assembly bloc has cut a deal with the Kurds and Shia's for a coalition government, leaving Mutlaq (Dialogue) and Allawi's "List" in the dust.

Now we will see the Accord party try to wrangle Dialogue and the "List" into their corner to support efforts and make the Accord party the head of the "Sunni/Secular" party.

Additional prediction:

Since the insurgency is tied to the Accord party by the largest extent, I expect, if the power sharing is done right and the "de-ba'athification" issue is addressed, that by April, the main "insurgency" will be all but finished in Iraq (not completely gone, but even lower than it is today - recall that the Accord party is related to the Islamic Scholar's Association which has direct ties to the insurgency). However, look for continued leveraging of power through "insurgent" attacks until issues of "de-ba'athification" and control of certain wealthy ministries (like oil and defense) are sorted out. I'm predicting April since this gives them appx four months to sort through who will do what and get it approved in assembly.